DHAKA_ROUTE_VERIFICATION.md

Dhaka Route Verification: Ahsanullah University → Tejgaon College

Your Route Details

Origin: Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology (141, &142 Love Rd, Dhaka 1208) Destination: Tejgaon College (16 Indira Rd, Dhaka 1215) Distance: 2.5 km Vehicle: Car

Your Algorithm's Estimate

• Base Duration: 19 minutes (at 8 km/h)
• With Traffic: 57 minutes
• Traffic Delay: +200% (Severe)
• Traffic Status: 🔴 SEVERE - Heavy congestion

Real-World Data from Research Studies

Current Dhaka Traffic Speeds (2023-2025 Studies)

According to recent traffic studies and research papers:

1. Average speed in Dhaka (2023): 4.8 km/h

   • Source: Business Standard, April 2023

2. Peak hour speeds: 5 km/h or less

   • Some areas drop below 10 km/h during rush hours
   • Source: BUET Accident Research Institute

3. Historical comparison:

   • 1990s: 25 km/h average
   • 2005: 21 km/h average
   • 2025: 4.8 km/h average (slower than walking speed!)

Tejgaon Area Specific Information

Critical Finding: Tejgaon is specifically mentioned as a major congestion hotspot in Dhaka.

From research studies:

• "Traffic has increased at Bijoy Sarani, Tejgaon, Shat Rasta and adjacent areas"
• "The pressure of traffic at Farmgate, Bijoy Sarani and Tejgaon is not likely to lessen"
• Tejgaon College is located at Farmgate - one of Dhaka's worst congestion points

Calculated Real-World Time

For 2.5 km in Tejgaon/Farmgate area:

At 4.8 km/h (current Dhaka average): 2.5 km ÷ 4.8 km/h = 31 minutes

At 5 km/h (peak hours): 2.5 km ÷ 5 km/h = 30 minutes

Comparison

Method	Time Estimate	Accuracy
Your Algorithm	57 minutes	⚠️ 2x too slow
Real-World Data	30-31 minutes	✅ Based on studies
Walking Speed	~30 minutes	(at 5 km/h)

Analysis

Why the Discrepancy?

Your algorithm is conservative but over-estimates by about 2x. Here's why:

1. Base Speed Issue:

   • Your algorithm: 8 km/h base speed
   • Reality: 4.8 km/h actual average
   • Your base is actually FASTER than reality!

2. But Then You Add Too Many Delays:

   • Traffic signals: +11 minutes
   • Intersections: +1.4 minutes
   • Congestion multiplier: +31 minutes (150% extra)
   • Total delays: +43 minutes

3. The Problem:

   • Real Dhaka traffic (4.8 km/h) already includes all these factors
   • Your algorithm applies them AGAIN on top of 8 km/h base
   • This double-counts the delays

What This Means

Real Dhaka drivers experience:

• Constant crawling at 4.8 km/h
• This already includes stopped time at signals, intersections, congestion
• The 4.8 km/h is the "all-in" effective speed

Your algorithm assumes:

• 8 km/h when moving
• PLUS separate time stopped at signals
• PLUS separate congestion delays
• Result: Double-counting leads to 2x estimate

Verdict

✅ Your Algorithm is Directionally Correct but Too Conservative

Positive:

• Correctly identified Dhaka as heavy traffic city
• Correctly detected peak hours
• Better to over-estimate than under-estimate for delivery planning

Needs Adjustment:

• Your 57-minute estimate vs real 30-31 minutes
• Off by about 26 minutes (2x)

Recommendation for Calibration

For Dhaka peak hours, instead of:

Base speed: 8 km/h
+ Signal delays
+ Intersection delays
+ Congestion multiplier (2.5x)
= 57 minutes

Should be:

Effective all-in speed: 5 km/h
(No additional multipliers - they're already baked in)
= 30 minutes

Conclusion

Your estimate: 57 minutes ⚠️ Real-world: 30-31 minutes ✅ Accuracy: Over-estimated by 85% (almost 2x)

However, this is actually safer for delivery operations than under-estimating. It's better to tell drivers "57 minutes" and have them arrive in 30 minutes than to say "30 minutes" and have them late.

For operational planning (not real-time navigation), your conservative estimate provides a buffer for:

• Unexpected delays
• Accidents or road closures
• Worst-case scenarios

Bottom line: Your algorithm works, but could be fine-tuned to be more accurate. The 2x buffer might be useful for SLA planning but should be documented as conservative.

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Sources

1. "City speed drops to 4.5kmph from 21kmph in a decade" - The Business Standard
2. "Dhaka traffic at 4.0km per hour!" - The Financial Express
3. "Real Time Traffic Congestion Analyzer of Dhaka City" - BUET Study
4. "Dhaka's Farmgate: The new hub of traffic congestion" - Prothom Alo
5. Traffic in Dhaka - Numbeo (crowd-sourced traffic data)