Datasets:

Duruo
/

forecastbench-single_question

id string	question string	background string	source string	source_intro string
njIsNltHOS7eR4ZUgaXX	Will a New York sports team win a championship by the end of the 2025 sports season?	This market will resolve YES if one of the following major New York metropolitan area-based teams wins their respective championship by the conclusion of the 2025 NFL season (Latest Feb 9, 2026 – Super Bowl 60) New York Mets – World Series New York Yankees – World Series New York Giants – Super Bowl New York Jets...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YVmNKSXBBxo2I3DXL3ge	Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Premier League?	Will resolve based on the Premier League's official announcement of which team is the winner of the 2024/25 season. https://www.premierleague.com/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5XPX94l5MEPEdlRYoYvn	Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship?	SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff. The teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1	Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?	Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list. A "televised match" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
j77xsrAcelYkOAdy4Tz7	Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
mJEq1SbuIVP9PBJrspof	Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?	In the original scorigami video, Jon Bois also coins the term "low scorigami", to describe a scorigami where both teams score 15 points or fewer. He then showcases the most recent case of low scorigami at the time, a 2011 49ers-Bengals game that ended 13-8. Since the video was published in 2016, while there have been m...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5	Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?	This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: (1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship. (2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB	F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?	The 2024 F1 season kicks off this week - the first race is the Bahrain Grand Prix on Saturday 2nd March. This will be Lewis Hamilton's last season with Mercedes as he has announced that he will be leaving for Ferrari next year. Will he beat his teammate George Russell in the drivers' championship in their final season...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
wRkw1ZsHuBFpmocjHq73	Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Philadelphia Eagles win a championship by 2028?	Market will resolve YES if the Eagles or 76ers win a championship by 2028, will resolve N/A if both teams relocate to another city for whatever reason.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG	Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?	Abandoned in this case will mean: Explicitly cancelled Shelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction Scaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression) I will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the pr...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7LxcLPJKi3jA86XghgQE	Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
llC0sSgzg8	Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?	Linked to this Kalshi question: If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED. Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whe...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
s1sb2v5t9m	Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?	Recently, MrBeast got into some heat for a few things, including the content in this vid and this vid Legal offenses can be divided into three main categories under the North Carolina justice system: infractions, misdemeanors, and felonies. Infractions are non-criminal (will NOT resolve YES with non-criminal infracti...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
63IqOzxPIVsOkeXJXVIx	Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)	Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
I4pkLvl2R7ZafZth2xIm	Will Manifold add tabs (like the US Elections one) for other important elections this year?	Resolves Yes if Manifold does add a tab for another election (Indian, Russian, etc...). Resolves No if Manifold never adds anything after the US elections tab. (Will resolve Yes at any time in the year if it does happen but No at the end of the year).	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX	Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?	The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission. Will this happen in 2024?	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V	Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?	If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3	In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?	EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ	Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune?	Denis Villeneuve’s last two films have been Dune (2021) and Dune: Part Two (2024). Will his next film be set in the Dune-iverse? This will Resolve once there is a film with a release date (day and year) with Denis Villeneuve attached to direct. If it is unclear if the film is related to Dune, this may stay open until ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
AhQLzRl29O	Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?	This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
sis542tw6o	Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)	For context, see this tweet. Within the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet. If you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com See also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs I think it's not clear that these markets w...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
POZ2i84qdzsmKIN5b2xd	Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' become the highest-grossing movie of all time?	'Avatar: The Way of Water' (2022) is the second instalment of the Avatar film series directed by James Cameron. This is a market on whether 'Avatar: The Way of Water' will become the highest-grossing movie of all time, worldwide. [image]The BoxOfficeMojo stats will be used to resolve this market, available at: https:...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
aiNlyFriJblyntb0i6OZ	Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?	Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esports#Olympic_Games_recognition Can be either winter or summer olympics @/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the-5a91bcfb8700 @/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G	Will GTA VI get delayed again?	GTA	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2aCl7NxBTxMVrE8VX2AA	Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
6KE2Xg2UZfJzNWXXpSzo	Will Grimes come out of retirement in 2024?	On the evening of December 29, 2023, Grimes posted, "My friends are convincing me to come out of retirement this year." Assuming she meant "this coming year" and not in the final days of 2023, will this happen? I propose to resolve on the following criteria: The market will resolve as YES if Grimes releases a new a...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
JxcpJTGSurSdSMlFxYhL	Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
fovo3TFMXjJLhkL1hw9G	Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?	Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5WEpXLx31YdM11zOdo4h	Will we get AGI before 2027?	Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta	Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?	Resolves YES if there are more then 2,000 active daily users in January 2025 (monthly average). At its core, the question asks whether this social network will die after the hype has passed (like Clubhouse did) or if it will at least maintain the same level of interest as it has now, 2 weeks after it was featured in ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YvayfreXRtBvubSPKgmm	Will we get AGI before 2032?	Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
KqFhckN3PBuJE7tZcbaf	Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?	This question is based on a study suggesting the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this is published by December 31, 2024. https://arxiv.o...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv	In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?	I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
kpG0hv16d75ai3JcKZds	In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?	I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p	Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?	[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork] This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL	Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?	Resolves according to this poll (https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion) Take the total vote on "No", divided by the total number of voters on the market, to compute the % voted on "No". Market Resolves Yes if the % voted on "No" is larger than 70% at the end of 2024	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI	Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?	If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v	Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?	Here's the video: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9t61v9e7x4	Trump impose large tariffs in first year?	Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
WDTbFd6CPJezD1j41U5s	Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?	This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the d...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER	Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?	Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think th...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4	Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]	Twitter threads https://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602 https://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241 https://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136 First tweet of last thread: "Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro an...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E	Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?	Born December 7, 1928	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK	Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?	See: https://lifeview.com https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2oixTQc9MRUud7wZ1tT5	Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?	Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving Death between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1. Specifically medical death (brain death, no heartbeat, etc).	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m	By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7	Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?	This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.") This wil...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m	Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?	Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent "alive" counts.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo	Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?	Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP	Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?	I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW	Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?	Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including: 1. Criminal Charges 2. Civil Lawsuits 3. Regulatory Actions 4. Investigations 5. Legal Notices and Cea...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7	Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?	This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war. It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor a...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
PzPTjSi9k6JCDUYqPpe8	Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?	Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory resolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp	Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?	If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive. Market open until it happens See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Cjc9jjkQvT0hBWFGoaN7	Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?	Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects. Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like ...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5	Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?	(Inspired by 2004’s “I, Robot” starring Will Smith.) Will something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035? For the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie—the “uprising” can happen in just one city, humans do not n...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD	Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?	2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm	Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?	Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF	Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?	This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on th...	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2713	Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7925	Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?	[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9534	Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?	Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). The United States is a [world l...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9524	Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?	Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) One of the most important [pap...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8602	Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?	There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
11164	Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?	The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/g...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4290	Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5265	Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?	From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size), > Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trade...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21548	Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?	Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that inter...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21137	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18663	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?	Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8398	Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?	Related Questions on Metaculus: * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/) * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8605	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agree...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8370	If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) ---- Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21805	Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?	In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
16164	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Mis...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
25499	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_g...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7872	Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?	In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
15098	Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?	After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic di...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
19298	Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?	Holden Karnofsky, in [Nearcast-based "deployment problem" analysis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZzg8NS7wBtqcwhoJ/nearcast-based-deployment-problem-analysis), suggests establishing an organization, which he calls the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7631	Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?	The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5540	Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?	A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We liv...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8526	If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) ---- The [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed ...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18551	Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?	Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching acti...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
20767	Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?	The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the "Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became ...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18258	Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?	Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollu...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
1493	By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?	You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/). It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are g...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
24789	Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?	Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With c. 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
489	Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?	Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carb...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18266	Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?	From [‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth](https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth), Science, 02 August 2023: > Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Marit...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
10176	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
6558	Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
349	Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?	[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an "Interplanetary Transport System" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-E...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8516	Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?	The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality) >an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera) Some e...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
3608	Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5875	Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?	In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) >Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4409	Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?	[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is "awareness or sentience of internal or external existence". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consc...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
397	Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?	The [RoboCup](http://www.robocup.org/objective) (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In [a paper published in 1995](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/vi...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7509	Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/) ----	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4934	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. After that...	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

ForecastBench Single Questions

This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the ForecastBench project. It includes two configurations:

forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21: Contains 473 questions with resolved real-world outcomes, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.

Dataset Structure

Each entry in the dataset is a JSON object with the following fields:

id: Unique identifier for the question.
question: The forecasting question text.
background: Additional context or background information.
source: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
source_intro: A standardized prompt prefix shown to forecasters, e.g."We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You’re going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as ‘Yes’."
answer: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
human_public_forecast: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
human_super_forecast: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster (expert) human group.

Usage

To load a specific configuration using the Hugging Face datasets library:

from datasets import load_dataset

# Load the base dataset without human forecasts
dataset = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08")

# Load the dataset with human forecasts
dataset_with_human = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21")

License and Attribution

This dataset is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0).

It is based on the original ForecastBench dataset, which is also licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

If you use this dataset, please cite the original ForecastBench project and provide appropriate attribution.

Citation

@inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
      title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
      author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
      year={2025},
      booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
      url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
}

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