Daily Papers

Reinforcement learning can align visual generators with reward signals beyond their pretraining objectives, but existing score-function methods typically introduce stochasticity by perturbing the reverse denoising trajectory, leading to costly rollout-based optimization. We instead ask whether stochastic exploration can be introduced inside the generator while preserving its original sampler. Routing Policy Optimization (RPO) answers this question by turning attention routing into a stochastic exploration action. At a few selected denoising levels, each query block keeps its own block and samples further key blocks in proportion to the generator's native attention mass, or keeps dense attention. The sampled route perturbs the velocity of that transition, and a Gaussian likelihood around the dense velocity scores the perturbation with a score-function objective. RPO further uses a controlled two-rollout estimator: two rollouts share the same prompt, initial latent, routed denoising levels, and dense anchor layers, differing only in their sampled attention routes. Their reward difference provides an advantage signal for the routed transitions. Because the likelihood differentiates the dense velocity itself, the learned updates remain effective after routing is removed. At inference, RPO restores dense attention and retains the original deterministic sampler. Experiments on text-to-image and text-to-video generation show that RPO improves generation quality while achieving nearly 4x higher training efficiency than Flow-GRPO-style methods. Please see our project page at https://velox-world.com/rpo for visual results.

Reinforcement learning for large language models (LLMs) typically relies on trust-region masks to stabilize off-policy updates. The dominant PPO-style approach uses the sampled-token importance ratio for two criteria: a proximity criterion, which asks whether the policy has moved too far from the behavior policy, and a direction criterion, which asks whether the update pushes it farther away. Recent work DPPO improves the proximity criterion by replacing PPO's ratio-based test with a probability divergence between the behavior and training policies. However, its direction criterion is still inherited from PPO. A token can be masked only when the sampled-token importance ratio moves away from one. We observe that this ratio-based direction criterion is a single-sample proxy that can disagree in sign with the change of the divergence that defines the proximity criterion. We therefore propose the predictive divergence mask, which asks whether the next policy-gradient step will increase or decrease the same divergence used by the trust region. For the discrete softmax policies used in LLM RL, we derive this prediction in closed form. Because production rollout engines expose only a truncated (top-K) view of the vocabulary, we develop two lightweight top-K estimators for this prediction. Detailed analysis shows the divergence-based direction is better aligned with the realized change of the divergence than the sampled ratio, and the resulting masks improve RL training across model scales and precision settings.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

We introduce ROLL, an efficient, scalable, and user-friendly library designed for Reinforcement Learning Optimization for Large-scale Learning. ROLL caters to three primary user groups: tech pioneers aiming for cost-effective, fault-tolerant large-scale training, developers requiring flexible control over training workflows, and researchers seeking agile experimentation. ROLL is built upon several key modules to serve these user groups effectively. First, a single-controller architecture combined with an abstraction of the parallel worker simplifies the development of the training pipeline. Second, the parallel strategy and data transfer modules enable efficient and scalable training. Third, the rollout scheduler offers fine-grained management of each sample's lifecycle during the rollout stage. Fourth, the environment worker and reward worker support rapid and flexible experimentation with agentic RL algorithms and reward designs. Finally, AutoDeviceMapping allows users to assign resources to different models flexibly across various stages.

Neural operators provide fast surrogates for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) by applying a learned evolution operator recursively to its own predictions, but this autoregressive rollout feeds every prediction error back as input, so local errors accumulate. Existing rollout-training strategies reduce the mismatch between training inputs and self-generated states, yet their supervision still measures only the absolute discrepancy from the ground-truth trajectory. Such supervision is therefore uninformative about whether the operator has overcome the long-horizon failure behaviors it exhibited earlier during optimization. We propose history-enriched rollout training (HERO), which augments conventional absolute trajectory supervision with relative supervision derived from the model's optimization history. HERO ranks detached candidate rollouts from a periodically refreshed lagged operator, the current model, and a perturbed input by rollout error, spectral discrepancy, energy drift, and error growth, and selects the strongest failure trajectory as reference. This reference enters a margin-based objective as a fixed comparison baseline, inducing a bounded, sample-dependent reweighting of the ground-truth rollout gradient rather than an independent gradient direction, which we further analyze theoretically. Experiments on nine PDE benchmarks with spectral and attention-based backbones show that HERO consistently improves long-horizon accuracy, stable rollout length, and out-of-distribution robustness at no inference-time cost. These results indicate that history-enriched relative supervision is effective for stabilizing long-horizon autoregressive prediction.

Standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) assigns the same explicit loss weight to every expert demonstration, regardless of the model's changing competence over training queries. Reinforcement learning (RL) based methods adapt update strength using model-generated rollouts, but often require substantially more sampling and can be unstable on hard tasks. We propose Online Self-Weighted Fine-Tuning (OSW-FT), a simple method that augments SFT with online, trajectory-level weighting. For each query, OSW-FT estimates the model's current success rate using a small number of inference-only rollouts and rescales the standard SFT loss accordingly. The optimization direction remains anchored to the expert trajectory, while the update magnitude adapts online. For binary-verifiable reasoning, we connect this weighting to SFT and RL at the gradient level, inspired by variance-reduction principles. The resulting estimator is unbiased for the exact OSW-FT surrogate update for any finite rollout count, and we analyze convergence with respect to the corresponding surrogate objective. Evaluated across Qwen3 series ranging from 0.6B to 4B on multiple challenging benchmarks (e.g., AIME), OSW-FT consistently improves over SFT on small-to-medium scale models. OSW-FT offers a favorable compute-performance trade-off as a practical approach for fine-tuning small-to-medium LLMs on binary-verifiable reasoning tasks with only 2 online rollouts.

When an off-the-shelf coding agent is used directly as a robot policy, observing a browser-based 3D interface through screenshots and acting by posing a virtual target gripper through a few tools, the agent's harness, its prompts, tools, and control rules, largely determines success, and until now it has been written by hand. We show that this harness can be improved automatically by another coding agent, the optimizer agent, and report two findings about what makes it work. First, the number of rollouts the optimizer agent sees per round governs whether the evolved harness is trustworthy, generalizes, and improves steadily. A single rollout is a noisy binary outcome, so with few rollouts per round a revision can be promoted on luck; enlarging the batch raises the signal-to-noise ratio of every promotion decision. Holding rounds fixed and growing the training set from 5 to 100 rollouts, held-out success rises from 47% to 67%, while small training sets overfit, reaching 70% on training tasks but only 54% held-out. Second, the optimizer agent must not be given free rein. With every revision it proposes accepted unconditionally, performance drifts downward within ten rounds as ill-judged edits accumulate; adding the most basic safeguard, Champion-Challenger selection that promotes a revision only if it strictly beats the incumbent on the same fixed evaluation set, turns the same loop into one that raises held-out success from 51% to 67% over 30 rounds. Automatic harness evolution for visual-interface robot agents is thus feasible, but its gains hinge on the rollout scale behind each decision and on how the optimizer agent's revisions are selected.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a standard post-training paradigm for shaping large language models (LLMs) into capable agents. In agentic RL, the rollout stage generates trajectories while invoking tools, producing long-tailed and non-stationary workloads that expose two fundamental challenges in resource management. First, due to the long-tail distribution, a small fraction of trajectories dominates rollout makespan. Second, rollout and training are subject to cross-stage imbalance, as they exhibit strong asymmetry in compute patterns, memory demands, and sensitivity to sequence length. Compounding this asymmetry, the sequence length distribution drifts continuously as the policy evolves, rendering any static resource split progressively suboptimal. We present Libra, a resource management system to address both challenges via two core mechanisms. The first is a global resource planner that jointly optimizes GPU allocation across rollout and training clusters. It leverages an elastic hybrid pool to enable lightweight, non-blocking worker reallocation between stages. The second is a causality-driven multi-level feedback queue (C-MLFQ) scheduler, which routes requests to heterogeneous rollout buckets based on causal signals derived from tool-return outcomes, rather than relying on fragile length predictions. Evaluated on 48 A800 GPUs, Libra achieves up to 3.0x higher throughput and converges up to 2.5x faster in reward compared to the baselines.

Policies with similar mean returns can differ sharply in rare failures, yet estimating lower-tail conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) accurately can require many costly rollouts. When different conditional components of a stochastic workflow can be queried separately, we ask how to allocate a fixed evaluation budget to estimate a fixed policy's CVaR most accurately. We derive a tail influence for each queryable conditional law that aggregates how its uncertainty affects CVaR across every Bellman reuse. Its variance yields the fixed-design efficiency bound and the oracle Neyman allocation. Tail-Influence Sampling (TIS) estimates these influence scales from a pilot model and reallocates fresh queries toward kernels that matter most for the tail; a visitation-anchored variant protects against pilot underallocation. Under fixed dimension and a positive quantile margin, TIS attains oracle asymptotic variance and first-order MSE including pilot cost, while the anchored variant is within a factor two of the oracle. We also characterize an exact-grid regime in which tail- and mean-optimal allocations coincide. On CliffWalking, TIS reduces MSE by 41% versus learned occupancy and 76% versus complete rollouts at the same charged transition budget. In frozen language-model review workflows, anchored TIS beats an equally regularized mean-influence blend in 23 of 24 MMLU-Pro settings and reaches 2.4-3.4times lower MSE than rollouts on six-call FinQA reviews.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Autoregressive rollout generation is a major computational cost in reinforcement learning for large language models. Reusing each rollout batch for additional learner updates amortizes this cost, but later updates become increasingly off-policy as the learner departs from the behavior policy. At a token position, exact off-policy correction must account for both the current action and the probability of reaching its prefix. The cumulative importance ratio provides this correction, but its product form can produce an unwieldy dynamic range. We study Prefix-Normalized Policy Optimization (PNPO), which replaces the cumulative ratio with the geometric mean of likelihood ratios along each causal prefix, preserving causal-prefix dependence at each position while compressing the log-weight scale. In controlled long-context mathematical reasoning experiments, we induce two off-policy regimes by using one or four policy-update epochs per rollout batch. PNPO does not consistently outperform GSPO with one epoch. With four epochs, it attains the highest observed Avg@32 on each benchmark; the unweighted mean of the three independently selected benchmark peaks is 50.24, 3.00 percentage points above GSPO. Under a matched 2,400-update budget, four-epoch PNPO reaches a final macro Avg@32 of 49.66 after 150 rollout batches, comparable to the 49.56 reached after 600 batches with one epoch. These results provide preliminary evidence that PNPO can be advantageous as training moves further off-policy.

Multi-step agentic reinforcement learning benefits from fine-grained credit assignment, yet existing approaches offer limited options: critic-free methods like GRPO assign a uniform advantage to every action in a trajectory, while learned value networks introduce notable overhead and can be fragile under sparse rewards. We observe that group rollouts targeting the same problem often traverse overlapping intermediate states, implicitly forming a tree whose branches diverge at successive decision points. Building on this insight, we introduce Rollout-Tree Monte Carlo (RTMC) advantage estimation, which aggregates return statistics across rollouts sharing a common state to produce per-step Q-values and advantages--without any learned critic. A state-action signature system compresses raw interaction histories into compact, comparable representations, making cross-rollout state matching tractable. On SWE-bench Verified, RTMC improves pass@1 by 3.2 percentage points over GRPO.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a central post-training tool for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). In these systems, the rollout, the trajectory sampled from a prompt to termination, including intermediate reasoning steps and optional tool or environment interactions, determines the data the optimizer learns from, yet rollout design is often underreported. This survey provides an optimizer-agnostic view of rollout strategies for RL-based post-training of reasoning LLMs. We formalize rollout pipelines with unified notation and introduce Generate-Filter-Control-Replay (GFCR), a lifecycle taxonomy that decomposes rollout pipelines into four modular stages: Generate proposes candidate trajectories and topologies; Filter constructs intermediate signals via verifiers, judges, critics; Control allocates compute and makes continuation/branching/stopping decisions under budgets; and Replay retains and reuses artifacts across rollouts without weight updates, including self-evolving curricula that autonomously generate new training tasks. We complement GFCR with a criterion taxonomy of reliability, coverage, and cost sensitivity that characterizes rollout trade-offs. Using this framework, we synthesize methods spanning RL with verifiable rewards, process supervision, judge-based gating, guided and tree/segment rollouts, adaptive compute allocation, early-exit and partial rollouts, throughput optimization, and replay/recomposition for self-improvement. We ground the framework with case studies in math, code/SQL, multimodal reasoning, tool-using agents, and agentic skill benchmarks that evaluate skill induction, reuse, and cross-task transfer. Finally, we provide a diagnostic index that maps common rollout pathologies to GFCR modules and mitigation levers, alongside open challenges for building reproducible, compute-efficient, and trustworthy rollout pipelines.

Group-based policy optimization methods like GRPO and GSPO have become standard for training multimodal models, leveraging group-wise rollouts and relative advantage estimation. However, they suffer from a critical gradient vanishing problem when all responses within a group receive identical rewards, causing advantage estimates to collapse and training signals to diminish. Existing attempts to mitigate this issue fall into two paradigms: filtering-based and sampling-based methods. Filtering-based methods first generate rollouts broadly and then retroactively filter out uninformative groups, leading to substantial computational overhead. Sampling-based methods proactively select effective samples before rollout but rely on static criteria or prior dataset knowledge, lacking real-time adaptability. To address these issues, we propose VADE, a Variance-Aware Dynamic sampling framework via online sample-level difficulty Estimation. Our framework integrates three key components: online sample-level difficulty estimation using Beta distributions, a Thompson sampler that maximizes information gain through the estimated correctness probability, and a two-scale prior decay mechanism that maintains robust estimation under policy evolution. This three components design enables VADE to dynamically select the most informative samples, thereby amplifying training signals while eliminating extra rollout costs. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that VADE consistently outperforms strong baselines in both performance and sample efficiency, while achieving a dramatic reduction in computational overhead. More importantly, our framework can serves as a plug-and-play component to be seamlessly integrated into existing group-based RL algorithms. Code and models are available at https://VADE-RL.github.io.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Data policies for reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) determine which rollouts are used, how strongly they are weighted, and which domains contribute to subsequent training batches. We introduce DataFlex-RL, an evaluation platform for comparing these choices under a common GRPO recipe. Our primary experiment evaluates 13 configurations across 12 matched seeds using Qwen2.5-7B-Base and 12 mathematics, logic, and science benchmarks. Uniform GRPO improves the domain-balanced average accuracy by 7.76 percentage points over the untrained checkpoint. None of the eight rollout-selection or reweighting methods achieves a paired 95% confidence interval that excludes zero relative to uniform sampling, and none of the three adaptive mixtures outperforms a fixed equal mixture at the same level of precision. A corrected 12-seed extension on Llama-3.1-8B-Base places the additional methods on the same score scale as the original controls, but does not reveal a consistent winner in terms of observed mean performance. We also quantify evaluation sensitivity by rescoring nine Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct runs using a math-heavy six-benchmark summary, consisting of five mathematics benchmarks and GPQA-Diamond but no logic benchmark, and comparing it with the domain-balanced 12-benchmark summary. The resulting rankings are negatively correlated, with a correlation coefficient of -0.33, whereas summaries that retain all 12 benchmarks largely agree. Across the controlled settings studied here, changing the data policy measurably changes the training process but does not produce a reproducible improvement over uniform training.

On-policy learning has been argued to reduce catastrophic forgetting, produce sparser parameter updates, and improve generalisation. However, existing comparisons between supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning vary many factors simultaneously, making the contribution of rollout policy difficult to isolate. We study the effect of rollout policy in a controlled strong-to-weak distillation setting, by independently varying rollout policy, token-level KL direction, and learning rate across the Llama3 and Qwen2.5 model families and reasoning tasks spanning scientific, medical, and arithmetic domains. Our analysis reveals a nuanced picture of distillation dynamics in which rollout policy does not necessarily play a central role. Instead, token-level KL direction more clearly shapes task performance and output coverage, while learning rate governs forgetting and update sparsity. Analysis of KL gradients and experiments along a continuous student-teacher rollout-policy spectrum explain this pattern: forward KL is remarkably robust to rollout policy, with its performance stable and strong despite changes to the rollout policy, whereas reverse KL is substantially more sensitive and favours student-generated rollouts. On-policy data nevertheless improves generalisation to harder variants of the Countdown arithmetic task under both KL directions, although this advantage does not reliably persist after subsequent RLVR. Our broader conclusions remain robust to removing gradient clipping, using sampled KL estimators, and training on tasks requiring longer reasoning chains. Overall, our results challenge the view that on-policy rollouts are inherently preferable and show that their value depends critically on the objective, evaluation setting, and optimisation hyperparameters.

Evaluating an AI system requires disaggregated assessment, as performance varies across domains such as benchmark task types or conversation types in deployed agents. Exhaustive testing is expensive, so evaluation rests on a sample of labeled units. We treat the evaluation set as a finite population and seek accurate point and interval estimates of each domain mean. Direct estimators, including prediction-powered inference (PPI), use only a domain's own labels and are imprecise where labels are few. Small area estimation addresses this problem, and we build on it to develop an integrated workflow for estimation and validation. For estimation, we propose prediction-powered smoothing (PP-S), a Bayesian model fit to each domain's prediction-powered estimate, with an extension that borrows strength across a reporting taxonomy (PP-TS). For validation, we derive a new, approximately unbiased design-based cross-validation score for choosing among direct and smoothed estimators. We study a curated benchmark with verifiable grading and deployed agent traffic graded by humans, each with every outcome observed. In both, the proposed estimators improve on the direct estimators in point and interval estimation, with near-nominal coverage. At the same sampling budget, our score selects as well as an independent validation sample does and estimates the selected estimator's error far more accurately.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) methods such as GRPO rely on successful self-generated trajectories, but finite rollout budgets can produce all-fail groups with no reward-based policy-gradient signal. While additional rollouts improve the chance of success at higher cost, successful trajectories missing from one model's rollouts may already have been discovered by another. Indeed, we observe that heterogeneous models often succeed on complementary prompts, creating opportunities for mutual learning without a designated stronger teacher. To exploit this complementarity, we propose GRAFT (Gated Replacement of Answer-Failed groups with peer Trajectories), an off-policy-aware framework that replaces all-fail groups with informative peer groups. GRAFT transfers both successful and unsuccessful peer responses with peer-computed advantages, while controlling cross-model mismatch through sequence-level compatibility weighting and token-level importance ratio clipping. Across three heterogeneous model pairs and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, GRAFT consistently improves both models over GRPO with the same per-model rollout budget, gaining 2.1 points on average and up to 4.5 points in model-level average performance. Stored peer trajectories preserve most of the gains, improving over GRPO by 1.8 points on average without simultaneous co-training.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

To combine the advantages of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), recent methods have integrated ''hints'' into post-training, which are prefix segments of complete reasoning trajectories, aiming for powerful knowledge expansion and reasoning generalization. However, existing hint-based RL methods typically ignore difficulty when scheduling hint ratios and estimating relative advantages, leading to unstable learning and excessive imitation of off-policy hints. In this work, we propose ADHint, which treats difficulty as a key factor in both hint-ratio schedule and relative-advantage estimation to achieve a better trade-off between exploration and imitation. Specifically, we propose Adaptive Hint with Sample Difficulty Prior, which evaluates each sample's difficulty under the policy model and accordingly schedules an appropriate hint ratio to guide its rollouts. We also introduce Consistency-based Gradient Modulation and Selective Masking for Hint Preservation to modulate token-level gradients within hints, preventing biased and destructive updates. Additionally, we propose Advantage Estimation with Rollout Difficulty Posterior, which leverages the relative difficulty of rollouts with and without hints to estimate their respective advantages, thereby achieving more balanced updates. Extensive experiments across diverse modalities, model scales, and domains demonstrate that ADHint delivers superior reasoning ability and out-of-distribution generalization, consistently surpassing existing methods in both pass@1 and avg@8. Our code and dataset will be made publicly available upon paper acceptance.

Long-horizon agents must coordinate reasoning, tool use, and environment feedback over extended interactions. Learning from sparse outcome rewards requires weighting trajectories of different lengths and updating the policy while rollouts are still being collected. We examine a single-rollout asynchronous recipe combining Muon, token-averaged loss, truncated importance sampling, and auxiliary length and tool-error penalties. Single-rollout sampling allows asynchronous learning without waiting for multiple trajectories for the same issue. We study optimizer choices and recipe components for repository-level issue resolution across two model families. The evaluated training runs show higher training success with the full recipe than with the baselines.

Stepwise group-based RL is an attractive way to train long-horizon LLM agents without a learned critic: it reuses multiple sampled rollouts to estimate local advantages. Its weakness is less visible but more fundamental: every group-relative estimator assumes that the steps it compares are equivalent for credit assignment. We show that current agentic variants violate this assumption through a state-action credit mismatch. The observation-hash partition is overly fine on the state side, creating singleton groups with zero step-level signal, while a single within-group mean is too coarse on the action side, mixing state-value estimation with action-specific credit. We introduce BiPACE (Bisimulation-Guided Policy Optimization with Action Counterfactual Estimation), a drop-in advantage estimator that fixes both sides without adding a critic, auxiliary loss, or extra rollouts. BiGPO clusters steps by cosine distance in the actor's own hidden-state geometry, an empirical policy-induced proxy for bisimulation that substantially lowers the singleton rate left by observation hashing. PACE then recenters returns within each behavioral cluster using action-conditioned peer baselines; its Q-style instance estimates a local Q(s,a)-V(s) nonparametrically. On ALFWorld/Qwen2.5-7B, BiPACE_Q raises overall validation success from GiGPO's 90.8 to 97.1pm0.9 over three seeds, and crosses the 95% threshold on every seed, which GiGPO never does within the same budget. On Qwen2.5-1.5B it reaches 93.5pm1.2 versus GiGPO's 86.7, and on WebShop and TextCraft it improves over GRPO and GiGPO at both model scales. The measured BiPACE-specific overhead is 11.3% of a single training-step wall time. Yet it changes the estimator's comparison unit from surface identity to approximate behavioral equivalence plus action-side counterfactuals. The code is available at https://github.com/TianxiangZhao/BiPACE.

Test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) enables large language models (LLMs) to self-improve on unlabeled inputs, but its effectiveness critically depends on how reward signals are estimated without ground-truth supervision. Most existing TTRL methods rely on majority voting (MV) over rollouts to produce deterministic rewards, implicitly assuming that the majority rollout provides a reliable learning signal. We show that this assumption is fragile: MV reduces the rollout distribution into a single outcome, discarding information about non-majority but correct actions candidates, and yields systematically biased reward estimates. To address this, we propose Distribution-AwareReward Estimation (DARE), which shifts reward estimation from a single majority outcome to the full empirical rollout distribution. DARE further augments this distribution-based reward with an exploration bonus and a distribution pruning mechanism for non-majority rollout exploration and reward denoise, yielding a more informative and robust reward estimation. Extensive experiments on challenging reasoning benchmarks show that DARE improves optimization stability and final performance over recent baselines, achieving relative improvements of 25.3% on challenging AIME 2024 and 5.3% on AMC.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a highly effective framework for improving LLM reasoning, with methods such as GRPO among its most successful instantiations. However, GRPO relies on repeated generation of long chain-of-thought rollouts. Training time scales with the number of rollouts, a large fraction of which are uninformative. Thus, GRPO is computationally expensive and unstable. To mitigate this, existing approaches either generate a larger pool of rollouts and filter the most informative prompts, or leverage historical signals for filtering at later stages of training. These strategies offer modest performance gains, but slow down the overall process. To address this, we propose VarIance Guided Online Rollout allocation (VIGOR) which instead of allocating a fixed rollout budget per example, begins with a small number of rollouts for all examples in a batch and iteratively allocates additional rollouts to those with the highest group reward variance until a fixed total rollout budget is reached. Theoretically, we show that under RLVR, reward variance controls the gradient magnitude, and derive VIGOR's closed-form speedup ratio over GRPO, which grows with refinement rounds under Pareto-distributed reward variance. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and coding tasks show that VIGOR reaches target accuracy with up to 2.3times fewer rollouts on math, reaches GRPO's final coding full pass rate with 1.49times fewer rollouts, and improves the coding average test pass rate by 3.4 points.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become a standard recipe for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. Existing algorithms face a tradeoff between computational efficiency and sample efficiency in value estimation and policy learning. We introduce BASIS, a critic-free post-training algorithm designed to address this tradeoff. At each online training step, BASIS samples only one rollout per prompt, but leverages rich information across prompts in the entire batch to improve value function estimation. Our experiments demonstrate that BASIS reduces MSE in value function estimation by 69% compared to REINFORCE++, a representative single-rollout baseline, and achieves lower MSE with one rollout than group mean estimators with 8 rollouts. This improvement in value estimation translates to better policy optimization: using substantially less training time, BASIS achieves performance close to multi-rollout GRPO-type baselines and often outperforms single-rollout REINFORCE-type baselines.

Rollout generation is a major bottleneck in Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Large Language Models, motivating low-precision rollout acceleration such as FP8. As an emerging low-precision format, NVFP4 combines fine-grained scaling for accuracy preservation with native W4A4 FP4 GEMMs for higher throughput than FP8. However, we find that directly applying NVFP4 to MoE RL rollout is impractical. NVFP4 rollout with BF16 training collapses after roughly 150 steps, accompanied by rapidly growing rollout-trainer log-probability gaps. Through training-inference error analysis and controlled ablations, we identify activation error, rather than weight error, as the dominant source of FP4 RL instability: weights can be synchronized and aligned by a shared quantization-dequantization path, whereas activations are recomputed online and error is amplified by the coarse E2M1 grid. Therefore, to stabilize NVFP4 RL for MoE, we propose QUantization-error Alignment across Dual Sides (QUADS). On the trainer side, we introduce Asymmetric Quantization-Aware Training fake-quantizing weights while keeping activations unquantized for better alignment. On the rollout side, Residual Activation Compensation corrects high-error activation channels while preserving native W4A4 GEMMs. In our MoE RL experiments on several benchmarks, QUADS achieves BF16-level accuracy, improves average pass@1 by 21.49 points over naive NVFP4 RL, and delivers ~16% higher rollout throughput than FP8.

Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against. We train a single conditional latent diffusion model that steps a dynamical system forward or backward in time via a direction flag, and show that this bidirectionality supplies a measurement-free test-time error signal: rolling forward i steps and then backward i steps must return the model to its start, so the round-trip discrepancy C_i is a self-supervised proxy for the unobservable rollout error: no ensembles, no held-out data, no governing equations, for one extra rollout. We validate on compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), an astrophysical turbulent radiative mixing layer, and natural face videos (CelebV-HQ). On held-out MHD trajectories, C_i ranks rollout error (Spearman 0.91-0.98 at fixed depth; 0.69 pm 0.16 within trajectories), and a simple calibrator fit on training rollouts predicts its magnitude to within 1.14times (68%) and 1.29times (95%) with near-nominal coverage - one nat beyond a depth-only predictor, transferring to all six decoded physical fields. The same signal flags the out-of-distribution Orszag-Tang vortex (AUROC 0.98; 1.0 by depth 10) exactly where sampling-dispersion baselines invert, and it cuts incurred error by 15% at 80% coverage - three times the depth-only baseline. Bidirectional training comes at negative cost, beating direction specialists in both directions, and the backward direction doubles as a fast inverse solver. On LE-PDE-UQ's turbulent Navier-Stokes benchmark, a single bidirectional model reaches accuracy within 1.3times of their ten-model ensemble at a tenth of the training cost, with the best training-free pixel-level calibration. Round-trip consistency turns reversibility into a practical trust signal for generative models.

Group-relative policy optimization methods train language models by generating multiple rollouts per prompt and normalizing rewards with a shared mean reward baseline. In resource-constrained settings where the rollout budget is small, accuracy often degrades. We find that noise in the shared baseline induces advantage sign flips, where some rollouts receive an incorrect advantage sign, and the update direction is reversed. To address this, we propose Median-Centered Group Relative Policy Optimization (MC-GRPO), a simple and effective solution for small-rollout training. Our main idea is to replace the mean baseline with a median baseline: the median is far less sensitive to outlier rewards than the mean, mitigating the sign flips under small rollout size (G). We generate one additional rollout for median reference (G+1), and compute advantages by using the group median. With an odd-sized group, exactly one completion is the median and receives zero advantage, we exclude this pivot rollout from backpropagation so the number of gradient-contributing samples per prompt remains G, preserving the core update cost of standard G-rollout training. Across various GRPO-family methods and a wide range of models and scales, this median-centered training consistently improves stability and final accuracy in the low-rollout regime, reducing the gap between G=2 and G=8 to within 1%. Code is available at https://github.com/lotusroot-kim/MC-GRPO

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Test-time reinforcement learning generates multiple candidate answers via repeated rollouts and performs online updates using pseudo-labels constructed by majority voting. To reduce overhead and improve exploration, prior work introduces tree structured rollouts, which share reasoning prefixes and branch at key nodes to improve sampling efficiency. However, this paradigm still faces two challenges: (1) high entropy branching can trigger rollout collapse, where the branching budget concentrates on a few trajectories with consecutive high-entropy segments, rapidly reducing the number of effective branches; (2) early pseudo-labels are noisy and biased, which can induce self-reinforcing overfitting, causing the policy to sharpen prematurely and suppress exploration. To address these issues, we propose Entropy Confidence Hybrid Group Relative Policy Optimization (ECHO). During rollout, ECHO jointly leverages local entropy and group level confidence to adaptively control branch width, and further introduces online confidence-based pruning to terminate persistently low confidence branches, avoiding high entropy traps and mitigating collapse. During policy updates, ECHO employs confidence adaptive clipping and an entropy confidence hybrid advantage shaping approach to enhance training robustness and mitigate early stage bias. Experiments demonstrate that ECHO achieves consistent gains on multiple mathematical and visual reasoning benchmarks, and generalizes more effectively under a limited rollout budget.

Closed-loop driving simulation requires real-time interaction beyond short offline clips, pushing current driving world models toward autoregressive (AR) rollout. Existing AR distillation approaches typically rely on frame sinks or student-side degradation training. The former transfers poorly to driving due to fast ego-motion and rapid scene changes, while the latter remains bounded by the teacher's single-pass output length and thus provides only a limited supervision horizon. A natural question is: can the teacher itself be extended via AR rollout to provide unbounded-horizon supervision at bounded memory cost? The key difficulty is that a standard teacher drifts under its own predictions, contaminating the supervision it provides. Our key insight is to make the teacher rollout-capable, ensuring reliable supervision from its own AR rollouts. This is instantiated as HorizonDrive, an anti-drifting training-and-distillation framework for AR driving simulation. First, scheduled rollout recovery (SRR) trains the base model to reconstruct ground-truth future clips from prediction-corrupted histories, yielding a teacher that remains stable across long AR rollouts. Second, the rollout-capable teacher is extended via AR rollout, providing long-horizon distribution-matching supervision under bounded memory, while a short-window student aligns to it with teacher rollout DMD (TRD) for efficient real-time deployment. HorizonDrive natively supports minute-scale AR rollout under bounded memory; on nuScenes, HorizonDrive reduces FID by 52% and FVD by 37%, and lowers ARE and DTW by 21% and 9% relative to the strongest long-horizon streaming baselines, while remaining competitive with single-pass driving video generators.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for Large Reasoning Models hinges on baseline estimation for variance reduction, but existing approaches pay a heavy price: PPO requires a policy-model scale critic, while GRPO needs multiple rollouts per prompt to keep its empirical group mean stable. We introduce Policy Optimization with Internal State Value Estimation), which obtains a baseline at negligible cost by using the policy model's internal signals already computed during the policy forward pass. A lightweight probe predicts the expected verifiable reward from the hidden states of the prompt and generated trajectory, as well as token-entropy statistics, and is trained online alongside the policy. To preserve gradient unbiasedness despite using trajectory-conditioned features, we introduce a cross-rollout construction that predicts each rollout's value from an independent rollout's internal states. Because POISE estimates prompt value using only a single rollout, it enables higher prompt diversity for a fixed compute budget during training. This reduces gradient variance for more stable learning and also eliminates the compute overhead of sampling costs for detecting zero-advantage prompts. On Qwen3-4B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B across math reasoning benchmarks, POISE matches DAPO while requiring less compute. Moreover, its value estimator shows similar performance to a separate LLM-scale value model and generalizes to various verifiable tasks. By leveraging the model's own internal representations, POISE enables more stable and efficient policy optimization.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

The focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Machine Learning (ML) methods for two-sample testing with right-censored observations. To achieve this, we develop several ML-based methods with varying architectures and implement them as two-sample tests. Each method is an ensemble (stacking) that combines predictions from classical two-sample tests. This paper presents the results of training the proposed ML methods, examines their statistical power compared to classical two-sample tests, analyzes the distribution of test statistics for the proposed methods when the null hypothesis is true, and evaluates the significance of the features incorporated into the proposed methods. All results from numerical experiments were obtained from a synthetic dataset generated using the Smirnov transform (Inverse Transform Sampling) and replicated multiple times through Monte Carlo simulation. To test the two-sample problem with right-censored observations, one can use the proposed two-sample methods. All necessary materials (source code, example scripts, dataset, and samples) are available on GitHub and Hugging Face.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is a prominent reinforcement learning algorithm for post-training Large Language Models (LLMs). It is commonly believed that GRPO necessitates a large group size to ensure stable training via precise statistical estimation, which incurs substantial computational overhead. In this work, we challenge this assumption by reframing GRPO as a form of contrastive learning, which reveals a fundamental connection to Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Motivated by DPO's empirical success, we investigate the minimal two-rollout case (2-GRPO), a configuration previously deemed infeasible. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis to validate 2-GRPO and demonstrate empirically that it achieves performance on par with 16-GRPO, despite using only 1/8 of the rollouts and reducing training time by over 70%.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning improves rollout throughput for large language model agents by decoupling sample generation from policy optimization, but it also introduces a critical failure mode for PPO-style off-policy correction. In heterogeneous training systems, the total importance ratio should ideally be decomposed into two semantically distinct factors: a training--inference discrepancy term that aligns inference-side and training-side distributions at the same behavior-policy version, and a policy-staleness term that constrains the update from the historical policy to the current policy. We show that practical asynchronous pipelines with delayed updates and partial rollouts often lose the required historical training-side logits, or old logits. This missing-old-logit problem entangles discrepancy repair with staleness correction, breaks the intended semantics of decoupled correction, and makes clipping and masking thresholds interact undesirably. To address this issue, we study both exact and approximate correction routes. We propose three exact old-logit acquisition strategies: snapshot-based version tracking, a dedicated old-logit model, and synchronization via partial rollout interruption, and compare their system trade-offs. From the perspective of approximate correction, we focus on preserving the benefits of decoupled correction through a more appropriate approximate policy when exact old logits cannot be recovered at low cost, without incurring extra system overhead. Following this analysis, we adopt a revised PPO-EWMA method, which achieves significant gains in both training speed and optimization performance. Code at https://github.com/millioniron/ROLL.

We present AdvantageFlow, a forward-process reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for rectified flow models. The algorithm minimizes an advantage-weighted prediction loss, which maximizes reward, regularized by the rollout policy, which convexifies the objective and makes its optimization stable. Our objective can be viewed as fitting a local reward-improving target distribution. The rollout regularization arises as a variance reduction step. We evaluate AdvantageFlow empirically on text-to-image generation with Stable Diffusion 3.5 Medium and FLUX.1, and compare it to both forward- and reverse-process RL algorithms.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

The standard Monte Carlo estimator I_N^{MC} of int fdω relies on independent samples from ω and has variance of order 1/N. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive distribution, makes the estimator consistent, with variance rates that depend on how the DPP is adapted to f and ω. We examine two existing DPP-based estimators: one by Bardenet & Hardy (2020) with a rate of O(N^{-(1+1/d)}) for smooth f, but relying on a fixed DPP. The other, by Ermakov & Zolotukhin (1960), is unbiased with rate of order 1/N, like Monte Carlo, but its DPP is tailored to f. We revisit these estimators, generalize them to continuous settings, and provide sampling algorithms.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) generates hundreds of thousands of tokens per training step, with rollout generation dominating the computational cost. The overall token budget can be controlled along two main dimensions: (i) deciding which prompts to allocate rollouts to, and (ii) deciding how long each rollout should be. Prior work has generally controlled only one of these dimensions at a time. We show that jointly tuning both decisions under a shared compute budget improves both reasoning quality and wall-clock training time. We instantiate this view as DUal-controlled tokEn allocaTion (DUET), a computationally efficient layer over GRPO that uses a lightweight pre-rollout surrogate of prompt informativeness to set how many rollouts each prompt receives, and a marker-gated abort rule with importance reweighting to set when to stop them. On Qwen3-1.7B trained on MATH, DUET outperforms full-budget GRPO and the other three budget-aware baseline methods. DUET's advantage further generalizes to other benchmarks across math and coding, and is on par with the best baseline on the scientific Q\&A domain, while also achieving a 1.62times wall-clock speedup. More notably, using only 50\% of the token budget, DUET still outperforms all baseline methods at their full budget, achieving an even higher 2.51times speedup over full-budget GRPO. We verify the high performance of DUET on other backbone LLMs, including Qwen3-4B and Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct. Notably, the gap between DUET and the strongest baseline widens as the budget tightens, contrary to the usual pattern in which efficient methods trade off quality as compute decreases. More broadly, these results suggest that DUET budget-aware control strategies are valuable not only for accelerating training, but also for improving the quality of the learning signal.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) is dominated by the cost of rollout generation, which has motivated the use of low-precision rollouts (e.g., FP8) paired with a BF16 trainer to improve throughput and reduce memory pressure. This introduces a rollout-training mismatch that biases the policy gradient and can cause training to collapse outright on reasoning benchmarks. We show that the mismatch is non-stationary and acts as a double-edged sword: early in training it provides a stochastic exploration bonus, exposing the gradient to trajectories the trainer would otherwise under-sample, but the same perturbation transitions into a destabilizing source of bias as the policy concentrates. To solve this, we propose Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS), a correction framework that adjusts the strength of its intervention on a per-batch basis. AIS combines three real-time diagnostics, namely weight reliability, divergence severity, and variance amplification, into a single mixing coefficient that interpolates between the uncorrected and fully importance-weighted gradients, suppressing the destabilizing component of the mismatch while preserving its exploratory benefit. We integrate AIS into GRPO and evaluate it on the diffusion-based LLaDA-8B-Instruct and the autoregressive Qwen3-8B and Qwen3.5-9B across mathematical reasoning and planning benchmarks. AIS matches the BF16 baseline on most tasks while retaining the 1.5 to 2.76x rollout speedup of FP8.

Prefill-only decision models inspired by the Jev model score every candidate in a menu during a single forward pass and never decode, which makes one call one to two orders of magnitude cheaper than a same-scale generative language model. We show that this read-out structure comes with a testable property. When an intervention changes only the candidate menu and leaves the input text fixed, the post-intervention accuracy is already determined by the cached first-pass distribution. The estimator restricts the pass-1 probabilities to the menu, renormalizes, and reads off the argmax; it uses no labels and no second forward pass. Across seven model families, ten datasets and two task types, menu-only interventions are predicted to within 4.2 points, and for one family the prediction is exact. A probability-level variant of the same estimator errs by 21.0 points, so the property lives in the ranking rather than in the probabilities and is not recovered by calibration. Same-scale generative language models do not share the property. On those models the same estimator errs by 1.6 to 15.8 points and degrades as the model grows. The property turns inference-time compute into a decision that can be made before deployment. Uniform extra passes buy calibration but almost no accuracy; at matched cost a confidence cascade outperforms every scheme that re-asks the same model, and curating the menu beats enlarging the model, with a 0.8B model on a curated 5-candidate menu reaching 95.4% on CLINC150 against 80.0% for a 4B model on the full 150-label menu.Code and data are available at https://github.com/rlisml/jev-cascade.

Evaluating generalist robot manipulation policies in the real world is expensive, slow, and difficult to scale. Action-conditioned video world models offer a scalable alternative by simulating policy rollouts. Autoregressive rollouts accumulate compounding errors, observations across multiple camera views must remain mutually consistent, and the evaluator must generalize to policies whose behaviors lie outside the training distribution. We address these challenges with SC3-Eval, a self-consistent video generation recipe that adapts a pre-trained video foundation model into an accurate policy evaluator by enforcing three complementary forms of consistency. First, forward-inverse dynamics consistency jointly trains the model to predict frames from actions and to recover actions from frames, anchoring generated rollouts to a physically plausible action manifold and counteracting the drift a forward-only model cannot penalize. Second, cross-view consistency trains the model to inpaint each camera view from the other, keeping the multi-camera observation coherent over long rollouts without any explicit memory mechanism. Third, test-time consistency reuses the inverse dynamics mode at inference as a per-action-chunk uncertainty signal that terminates rollouts whose generated frames drift away from the requested actions. We also demonstrate SC3-Eval rollouts reproduce the failure modes that policies exhibit in real-world rollouts, supporting fine-grained diagnostic comparison rather than aggregate ranking alone. Across seven real-world vision-language-action policies, SC3-Eval attains a closed-loop Pearson correlation of 0.929 and MMRV of 0.119, outperforming three strong prior video-model-based baselines, and generalizes to new tasks.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

When pretrained VLA policies are fine-tuned through online RL, each rollout episode produces only a single binary outcome (success or failure), yet the actor update requires per-transition supervision. Existing approaches commonly reduce this sparse outcome to a single scalar reward or advantage signal, which conflates distinct forms of transition-level feedback and provides limited guidance once basic task success becomes achievable. First, a single scalar signal conflates the two objectives of viability and efficiency; once basic success is achieved, the binary label provides no gradient to distinguish efficient completions from slow ones. Second, real-world rollouts mix autonomous and intervention segments; naively assigning episode outcomes across these boundaries introduces incorrect credit assignment. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Advantage-Weighted Behavior Cloning (HABC), which trains separate critic heads for these two objectives on different data subsets and combines their outputs with a state-adaptive balance. A state-adaptive gate g_t merges their one-step advantages, prioritizing viability when success is uncertain and shifting to efficiency only when viability is high, and converts the result into per-transition weights on the actor loss. Intervention-aware credit assignment further restricts outcome labels to segments executed by the current policy, preventing supervision from leaking across intervention boundaries. In real-robot experiments on three contact-rich bimanual tasks, HABC raises success from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) baselines of 36%, 44%, and 12% to 92%, 88%, and 38%.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a critical stage in post-training large language models (LLMs), involving repeated interaction between rollout generation, reward evaluation, and centralized learning. Distributing rollout execution offers opportunities to leverage more cost-efficient inference resources, but introduces challenges in wide-area coordination and policy dissemination. We present ECHO-2, a distributed RL framework for post-training with remote inference workers and non-negligible dissemination latency. ECHO-2 combines centralized learning with distributed rollouts and treats bounded policy staleness as a user-controlled parameter, enabling rollout generation, dissemination, and training to overlap. We introduce an overlap-based capacity model that relates training time, dissemination latency, and rollout throughput, yielding a practical provisioning rule for sustaining learner utilization. To mitigate dissemination bottlenecks and lower cost, ECHO-2 employs peer-assisted pipelined broadcast and cost-aware activation of heterogeneous workers. Experiments on GRPO post-training of 4B and 8B models under real wide-area bandwidth regimes show that ECHO-2 significantly improves cost efficiency while preserving RL reward comparable to strong baselines.

Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financial datasets from these regions. We investigate the use of synthetic outliers, a largely unexplored approach, to improve model stability against unforeseen shocks. To evaluate effectiveness, we introduce a two-level framework that measures both the extent of performance degradation and the severity of shocks. Our experiments on macroeconomic tabular datasets show that adding a small proportion of synthetic outliers generally improves stability compared to baseline models, though the optimal amount varies by dataset and model

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning is increasingly driven by the refinement of post-training loss functions and alignment strategies. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) remain constrained by static uniformity: uniform prompt sampling and a fixed number of rollouts per prompt. For heterogeneous, heavy-tailed reasoning data, this creates structural inefficiencies that waste compute on already-solved patterns while under-training the long tail of hard problems. To address this, we propose Multi-Adversary Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), an optimization-first framework that moves beyond uniform reasoning models by dynamically adapting the training distribution. We introduce an Online Difficulty Classifier that partitions prompts into dynamic pass@k difficulty groups. We then propose two independent GDRO games for post-training: (1) Prompt-GDRO, which employs an EMA-debiased multiplicative-weights bandit sampler to target the intensive difficulty margin and upweight persistently hard groups without frequency bias; and (2) Rollout-GDRO, which uses a shadow-price controller to reallocate rollouts across groups, maximizing gradient variance reduction on hard tasks under a fixed mean budget (compute-neutral). We provide no-regret guarantees for both controllers and additionally a variance-proxy analysis motivating a square-root optimal rollout allocation for Rollout-GDRO. We validate our framework on the DAPO 14.1k dataset using Qwen3-Base models. Prompt-GDRO and Rollout-GDRO achieve average relative gains of +10.6% and +10.1%, respectively, in pass@8 accuracy across 1.7B, 4B, and 8B scales compared to the GRPO baseline. Qualitative analysis shows an emergent curriculum: the adversaries shift resources to the evolving reasoning frontier, enhancing the reasoning model's performance.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

In this work, we reframe agentic trajectories as paths through a shared embedding space of actions and environmental observations. We show that successful and failed rollouts of the same task separate in this space, with simple per-task discriminators predicting held-out rollout outcomes at up to 0.95 AUROC across three agent benchmarks and three policy models. To exploit this signal across tasks, we introduce Precog-RM, a transformer-based model that meta-learns a representation in which outcome prediction can be performed in a few-shot setting. We show that Precog-RM generalizes to unseen tasks and models, and gives confident predictions of trajectory success long before termination. Deployed as an early stopping controller for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on Tau2-Bench, Precog-RM cuts training FLOPs by up to 47.3\% while maintaining performance comparable to baseline GRPO.

Skill-augmented reinforcement learning improves language agents by storing reusable procedural knowledge acquired from past experience. Existing methods typically use strong language models to analyze trajectories, generate skills, and update a retrievable skill bank during online training. However, they rarely assess whether a newly generated skill is useful before it is stored and reused. We find that this assumption is unreliable: even skills generated by proprietary frontier LLMs exhibit highly mixed utility, with many providing little benefit or even degrading performance. Once such skills enter the bank, their effects are difficult to identify, because subsequent rollout feedback is delayed and usually reflects the combined effect of multiple retrieved skills rather than the marginal contribution of any individual skill. We propose an online reinforcement learning framework for pre-storage skill validation. The framework estimates whether a candidate skill contributes useful information beyond the skills already retrieved for the current task. It uses the standard rollout budget to form two matched groups under the same task and retrieval context: base rollouts conditioned on the currently retrieved skills, and skill-augmented rollouts conditioned on the same skills plus one candidate skill induced from the base trajectories. The reward gap between these two groups estimates the candidate skill's context-dependent marginal utility, enabling the framework to promote useful skills while filtering ineffective or harmful ones without additional rollout overhead. The framework further uses this marginal-utility signal to train the policy itself as a skill generator, reducing reliance on repeated calls to proprietary models. The learned skill-generation likelihood serves as a context-dependent score for retrieval-time reranking and outdated-skill pruning as the policy evolves.

Despite algorithm-level innovations for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), the underlying networked infrastructure for large-scale MARL training remains underexplored. Existing training frameworks primarily optimize for single-agent scenarios and fail to address the unique system-level challenges of MARL, including rollout-training synchronization barriers, rollout load imbalance, and training resource underutilization. To bridge this gap, we propose FlexMARL, the first end-to-end training framework that holistically optimizes rollout, training, and their orchestration for large-scale LLM-based MARL. Specifically, FlexMARL introduces the joint orchestrator to manage data flow under the rollout-training disaggregated architecture. Building upon the experience store, a novel micro-batch driven asynchronous pipeline eliminates the synchronization barriers while providing strong consistency guarantees. Rollout engine adopts a parallel sampling scheme combined with hierarchical load balancing, which adapts to skewed inter/intra-agent request patterns. Training engine achieves on-demand hardware binding through agent-centric resource allocation. The training states of different agents are swapped via unified and location-agnostic communication. Empirical results on a large-scale production cluster demonstrate that FlexMARL achieves up to 7.3x speedup and improves hardware utilization by up to 5.6x compared to existing frameworks.

In policy gradient reinforcement learning, access to a differentiable model enables 1st-order gradient estimation that accelerates learning compared to relying solely on derivative-free 0th-order estimators. However, discontinuous dynamics cause bias and undermine the effectiveness of 1st-order estimators. Prior work addressed this bias by constructing a confidence interval around the REINFORCE 0th-order gradient estimator and using these bounds to detect discontinuities. However, the REINFORCE estimator is notoriously noisy, and we find that this method requires task-specific hyperparameter tuning and has low sample efficiency. This paper asks whether such bias is the primary obstacle and what minimal fixes suffice. First, we re-examine standard discontinuous settings from prior work and introduce DDCG, a lightweight test that switches estimators in nonsmooth regions; with a single hyperparameter, DDCG achieves robust performance and remains reliable with small samples. Second, on differentiable robotics control tasks, we present IVW-H, a per-step inverse-variance implementation that stabilizes variance without explicit discontinuity detection and yields strong results. Together, these findings indicate that while estimator switching improves robustness in controlled studies, careful variance control often dominates in practical deployments.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is the dominant paradigm for post-training large language models. However, in the online, on-policy setting, rollout generation dominates the computational cost of training. Group-based policy optimization methods compute advantages from multiple rollouts per prompt, yet they indiscriminately allocate budget to prompts with collapsed reward distributions, wasting expensive rollouts on negligible learning signals. We demonstrate that group-based updates are most effective in regimes of high reward variance. Since the policy evolves throughout training, prompt informativeness must be estimated online rather than precomputed, but exhaustively evaluating every prompt is computationally prohibitive. We introduce Pilot-Commit, a budget-aware rollout allocation framework for group-based RL post-training. Pilot-Commit decouples prompt evaluation from exploitation: a pilot stage estimates per-prompt informativeness using a fraction of the budget, and the remaining rollouts are allocated to high-leverage prompts while low-signal prompts are skipped. Across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 14B parameters, Pilot-Commit matches baseline accuracy with significantly lower sampling costs, reaching target accuracy up to 1.9times faster than GRPO and 4.0times faster than DAPO in cumulative rollouts.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have become a prevailing paradigm for unified video perception. However, post-training on large multi-task datasets remains challenging, as existing reinforcement learning methods sample on-policy groups with few high-quality rollouts even with costly chain-of-thought (CoT) generation. In this paper, we study the sample efficiency and scalability of RL post-training for video MLLMs and introduce OraRL. We identify an overlooked role for annotations: Beyond scoring rollouts, each can enter its on-policy group as an oracle rollout, a direct positive optimization target. Direct oracle integration, however, is nontrivial: a high-reward oracle raises the group baseline and inverts otherwise positive policy advantages, a failure we term advantage inversion. At the core of OraRL is a decoupled advantage estimator: policy rollouts determine an oracle-free baseline, while the oracle-policy gap modulates both a directional gain and a separate detached oracle advantage. Sign-balanced pruning improves efficiency: by retaining only the oracle and the strongest rollouts of each sign, OraRL requires just 2.2x the step time of SFT, less than half the 4.9x required by GRPO with CoT. OraRL scales with model size and data, surpassing its backbone from 0.8B to 9B and GRPO up to 100k prompts. Without chain-of-thought, Video-ORA-9B decodes in 130 ms instead of 4,780 ms. Compared with the respective prior best models, it raises temporal mIoU from 62.5 to 66.0, tracking AO from 73.0 to 78.2, segmentation from 64.3 to 70.4, and the three-benchmark spatial-intelligence macro average from 51.0 to 56.1; on VSI-Bench, it scores 73.1 against 55.0 for GPT-5 and 55.1 for Gemini-3-Pro.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) typically uses small rollout groups per prompt, where repeated sampling from the same policy can yield highly similar trajectories, reducing within-group reward variation and weakening group-relative advantage signals. Existing remedies such as higher sampling temperature, entropy bonuses, asymmetric clipping, and larger rollout budgets broaden sampling or modify policy updates but leave rollout conditioning unchanged. In this paper, we propose EDEN (Embedding-space Directional Exploration via anchored Noise), which intervenes at the rollout source through anchored input perturbations. EDEN explores beyond the policy's own rollouts. Within the same rollout budget, it replaces a small fraction of standard rollouts in each group with rollouts that the same policy generates from the prompt plus a single appended, perturbed embedding position, rather than from the prompt alone. Gaussian noise drives variation, while a shared anchor provides a common conditioning direction within each prompt group. Selected perturbed rollouts contribute to GRPO updates with downweighted advantages, and the model architecture, discrete decoding, and test-time inference remain unchanged. Across model scales and mathematical reasoning benchmarks, EDEN outperforms GRPO and the exploration controls evaluated in the same pipeline, with the largest gains in sampled solution coverage. Analyses show that more prompt groups provide non-zero group-relative learning signals and that noise and anchoring play complementary roles. Intervening at the rollout source is thus an effective lever for exploration in RLVR.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

On-policy distillation (OPD) transfers reasoning behavior by training a student on teacher feedback along student-generated trajectories, but standard full-rollout training ties every update to a costly completion and can over-allocate supervision to late positions with low marginal value for the current student. We revisit this assumption through the useful supervision horizon: student-induced rollouts can drift from teacher-preferred continuations, while aligned prefixes may already preserve the long-horizon OPD update direction. We propose ADWIN, an adaptive-window framework for OPD that treats rollout length as an online admissibility decision, training on short teacher-anchored prefixes while using delayed full-rollout probes to audit prefix--full alignment and adapt the next horizon with staleness control. Across math and code reasoning benchmarks in single-task, multi-task, and strong-to-weak settings, ADWIN improves the accuracy--compute trade-off over full-rollout OPD and prefix-based baselines, reducing end-to-end training cost by up to 4.1 times while achieving comparable or better accuracy.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is the predominant method for adapting large language models (LLMs), yet it often struggles with generalization compared to reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we posit that this performance disparity stems not just from the loss function, but from a more fundamental difference: SFT learns from a fixed, pre-collected dataset, whereas RL utilizes on-policy data sampled from the current policy. Building on this hypothesis, we introduce one-token rollout (OTR), a novel fine-tuning algorithm that guides SFT with the policy gradient method. OTR reframes the autoregressive learning process by treating each token generation as a single-step reinforcement learning trajectory. At each step, it performs a Monte Carlo ``rollout'' by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the current policy's distribution. The ground-truth token from the supervised data is then used to provide a reward signal to these samples. Guided by policy gradient, our algorithm repurposes static, off-policy supervised data into a dynamic, on-policy signal at the token level, capturing the generalization benefits of on-policy learning while bypassing the costly overhead of full sentence generation. Through extensive experiments on a diverse suite of challenging benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, and general domain reasoning, we demonstrate that OTR consistently outperforms standard SFT. Our findings establish OTR as a powerful and practical alternative for fine-tuning LLMs and provide compelling evidence that the on-policy nature of data is a critical driver of generalization, offering a promising new direction for fine-tuning LLMs.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion models have shown great potential in real-time video generation. Recent methods distill pretrained bidirectional video diffusion models into causal AR students through Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), but the generated videos often suffer from over-saturation and over-smoothing issues, resulting in limited visual quality and realism. The key contributing factor is the mode-seeking behavior of the reverse KL objective in DMD, which can cause the student distribution to collapse onto only a few modes of the teacher distribution. To address this, we propose Mask Forcing, a Dual-Noise Masking Rollout strategy that perturbs the AR student self-rollout to mitigate mode collapse induced by reverse-KL mode seeking. The core idea is to inject cleaner signals into noisy rollout inputs via random masks along spatial and temporal axes during the self-rollout process of AR diffusion distillation. Such perturbations encourage the student rollouts to explore more regions of the teacher distribution, allowing DMD to provide learning signals beyond the modes already covered by the student. Moreover, the cleaner tokens act as denoising guidance for other noisier tokens, improving the intermediate rollout predictions and reducing error accumulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method improves multiple AR video diffusion distillation methods with higher visual quality efficiently, without incorporating real video data or additional post-training stages.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is an effective paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, existing RLVR methods utilize rollouts in an indiscriminate and short-horizon manner: responses of heterogeneous quality within each prompt are treated uniformly, and historical rollouts are discarded after a single use. This leads to noisy supervision, poor sample efficiency, and suboptimal policy updates. We address these issues by formulating rollout scheduling in RLVR as a contextual bandit problem and proposing a unified neural scheduling framework that adaptively selects high-value rollouts throughout training. Each rollout is treated as an arm whose reward is defined by the induced performance gain between consecutive optimization steps. The resulting scheduler supports both noise-aware intra-group selection and adaptive global reuse of historical rollouts within a single principled framework. We provide theoretical justification by deriving sublinear regret bounds and showing that enlarging the rollout buffer improves the achievable performance upper bound. Experiments on six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate consistent gains in performance and training efficiency across multiple RLVR optimization methods.

We identify a new dimension for enhancing rollout diversity in Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for LLMs. While GRPO relies on diverse rollouts, prevailing strategies primarily increase diversity by injecting more token-level randomness, which may introduce step-wise noise and lead to incoherent trajectories. We uncover that smaller models within the same model family inherently exhibit higher policy-level diversity, indicated by their superior pass@k relative to larger counterparts as sample counts increase. Unlike token-level noise, this diversity is temporally correlated, preserves logical consistency, and provides structured exploration signals for gradient estimation. We thus propose S2L-PO (Small-to-Large Policy Optimization), a framework that leverages fixed small models as natural explorers to train larger models. To balance exploration and exploitation, we design a progressive annealing strategy that transitions from offline small-model rollouts to the large learner's own sampling. This shift elegantly avoids mid-training performance drops caused by the small model's capacity limits, achieving faster convergence and unlocking a higher performance ceiling. S2L-PO improves accuracy on diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks (e.g., +8.8% on AIME 24 using a 1.7B explorer to guide the 8B model) while reducing rollout compute.

Critic-free methods like GRPO reduce memory demands by estimating advantages from multiple rollouts but tend to converge slowly, as critical learning signals are diluted by an abundance of uninformative samples and tokens. To tackle this challenge, we propose the Dynamic Dual-Level Down-Sampling (D^3S) framework that prioritizes the most informative samples and tokens across groups to improve the efficient of policy optimization. D^3S operates along two levels: (1) the sample-level, which selects a subset of rollouts to maximize advantage variance (Var(A)). We theoretically proven that this selection is positively correlated with the upper bound of the policy gradient norms, yielding higher policy gradients. (2) the token-level, which prioritizes tokens with a high product of advantage magnitude and policy entropy (|A_{i,t}|times H_{i,t}), focusing updates on tokens where the policy is both uncertain and impactful. Moreover, to prevent overfitting to high-signal data, D^3S employs a dynamic down-sampling schedule inspired by curriculum learning. This schedule starts with aggressive down-sampling to accelerate early learning and gradually relaxes to promote robust generalization. Extensive experiments on Qwen2.5 and Llama3.1 demonstrate that integrating D^3S into advanced RL algorithms achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalization while requiring fewer samples and tokens across diverse reasoning benchmarks. Our code is added in the supplementary materials and will be made publicly available.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, methods such as GRPO and DAPO suffer from substantial computational cost, since they rely on sampling many rollouts for each prompt. Moreover, in RLVR the relative advantage is often sparse: many samples become nearly all-correct or all-incorrect, yielding low within-group reward variance and thus weak learning signals. In this paper, we introduce arrol (Accelerating RLVR via online Rollout Pruning), an online rollout pruning method that prunes rollouts during generation while explicitly steering the surviving ones more correctness-balanced to enhance learning signals. Specifically, arrol trains a lightweight quality head on-the-fly to predict the success probability of partial rollouts and uses it to make early pruning decisions. The learned quality head can further weigh candidates to improve inference accuracy during test-time scaling. To improve efficiency, we present a system design that prunes rollouts inside the inference engine and re-batches the remaining ones for log-probability computation and policy updates. Across GRPO and DAPO on Qwen-3 and LLaMA-3.2 models (1B-8B), arrol improves average accuracy by +2.30 to +2.99 while achieving up to 1.7x training speedup, and yielding up to +8.33 additional gains in average accuracy in test-time scaling. The code is available at https://github.com/Hsu1023/ARRoL.

Reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning has become a key technique for enhancing the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness critically depends on the selection of training data. Recent advances underscore the importance of online prompt selection methods, which typically concentrate training on partially solved or moderately challenging examples under the current policy, thereby yielding more effective model updates. While significantly accelerating RL finetuning in terms of training steps, they also incur substantial computational overhead by requiring extensive LLM rollouts over large candidate batches to identify informative samples, an expense that can outweigh the finetuning process itself. To address this challenge, this work proposes Dynamics-Predictive Sampling (DPS), which online predicts and selects informative prompts by inferring their learning dynamics prior to costly rollouts. Specifically, we introduce a new perspective by modeling each prompt's solving progress during RL finetuning as a dynamical system, where the extent of solving is represented as the state and the transition is characterized by a hidden Markov model. Using historical rollout reward signals, we perform online Bayesian inference to estimate evolving state distributions, and the inference outcome provides a predictive prior for efficient prompt selection without rollout-intensive filtering. Empirical results across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematics, planning, and visual geometry, demonstrate that DPS substantially reduces redundant rollouts, accelerates the training process, and achieves superior reasoning performance.

We present, to our knowledge, the first end-to-end FP4 RL post-training, in which both the rollout and training policies, including their forward and backward passes, operate at 4-bit precision. A systematic study reveals that the dominant source of degradation in FP4 RL is not training-side quantization error but rollout activation quantization: outliers stretch the dynamic range so far that a large number of activation values underflow to zero under FP4. Counterintuitively, restoring the training policy to higher precision while keeping the rollout in FP4 makes accuracy worse than full FP4 baseline, exposing rollout-training mismatch as the principal failure mode and ruling out standard pretraining-style fixes. We address this with Rollout Residual Quantization (Rollout-ResQ): a single residual correction term constrained to a hardware-friendly sparsity pattern, added only to the FP4 rollout matmul -- a lightweight correction that recovers most of the precision lost to outlier-driven underflow without inflating the rollout's compute footprint. On Qwen2.5-3B and Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Rollout-ResQ paired with the HiFloat4 (HiF4) format -- whose three-level hierarchical scaling preserves resolution under FP4's tight 4-bit budget -- closes the accuracy gap to BF16 from 4.9% to 1.1%, bringing fully quantized FP4 RL within striking distance of full precision. Applied to the open-standard MXFP4, the same recipe narrows the gap from 13.6% to 5.3%, revealing that FP4 format choice is a key factor that determines the ceiling on recoverable accuracy. Together, these results establish HiF4 as the enabling format for end-to-end FP4 RL post-training, and Rollout-ResQ as the activation-side mechanism that makes the gap to BF16 closable.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains student agents through teacher supervision on their own interactions with an environment. However, in asynchronous multi-turn training, arrival-order batching can allow a few early or long rollouts to dominate learner updates while other valid rollouts become stale before being used, wasting already-generated experience. To address this problem, we introduce DivOPD, a simple learner-side batch-selection method that spreads a fixed turn budget across more rollouts and, within each rollout, prioritizes turns with larger cumulative teacher-student disagreement. Turns without usable teacher feedback are excluded. The per-turn loss and optimizer remain fixed; selection only changes which student-visited turns receive training weight. For no-progress rollouts, an optional extension briefly hands control to the teacher before returning it to the student. Across six teacher-student settings on the simulated ALFWorld, ScienceWorld, and WebShop benchmarks, with 1.5B-7B students, DivOPD raises cross-setting mean peak success rate from 77.4 to 84.4 and mean success over the last five evaluations from 71.5 to 78.6. It reaches all reported setting-specific targets with geometric-mean speedups of 1.84x in training tokens and 1.87x in learner GPU time relative to vanilla OPD. Teacher intervention further raises this last-five mean to 82.4 while retaining about 1.7x learner-GPU speedup over vanilla OPD. Code will be released at https://github.com/HanyangWang0418-oss/DivOPD.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning (RL) for large language model (LLM) agents trains one policy on trajectories generated by another: rollouts come from stale checkpoints, and the inference engine's probabilities differ from the trainer's even at identical parameters. Standard remedies either clip importance ratios, which biases the update, or, as in GRPO, sample a group of responses per prompt, which is costly when episodes are long. We propose KL-Regularized Policy Optimization (KLPO), a framework that anchors the KL regularizer at the sampler. The regularized improvement step then has a closed-form Gibbs solution, and KLPO fits its log-ratio optimality condition by least squares on the sampler's own trajectories, so the sampler probability enters through a log-ratio and no importance weights are needed. Profiling out the regression intercept replaces the intractable log-partition function with the signal's sampler mean plus a sampler-to-trainer KL divergence. For token-level policy mirror descent targets, we show that the resulting gradient can be computed from terminal returns without a critic, via sampler-centered scores or a single trajectory residual, even under stochastic tool outputs. We further prove that independent Monte Carlo estimates of the KL term keep these gradients unbiased, derive the exact KL gap of cheaper top-K and binary approximations, and show that SPPO, GPO, REBEL, and BPO arise as special cases of KLPO. The result is a critic-free update that uses one rollout per prompt and requires neither a learned normalizer nor a group of responses.

Two major sources of training data exist for post-training modern language models: online (model-generated rollouts) data, and offline (human or other-model demonstrations) data. These two types of data are typically used by approaches like Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), respectively. In this paper, we show that these approaches are not in contradiction, but are instances of a single optimization process. We derive a Unified Policy Gradient Estimator, and present the calculations of a wide spectrum of post-training approaches as the gradient of a common objective under different data distribution assumptions and various bias-variance tradeoffs. The gradient estimator is constructed with four interchangeable parts: stabilization mask, reference policy denominator, advantage estimate, and likelihood gradient. Motivated by our theoretical findings, we propose Hybrid Post-Training (HPT), an algorithm that dynamically selects different training signals. HPT is designed to yield both effective exploitation of demonstration and stable exploration without sacrificing learned reasoning patterns. We provide extensive experiments and ablation studies to verify the effectiveness of our unified theoretical framework and HPT. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks and two out-of-distribution suites, HPT consistently surpasses strong baselines across models of varying scales and families.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become essential for post-training large language models (LLMs) in reasoning tasks. While scaling rollouts can stabilize training and enhance performance, the computational overhead is a critical issue. In algorithms like GRPO, multiple rollouts per prompt incur prohibitive costs, as a large portion of prompts provide negligible gradients and are thus of low utility. To address this problem, we investigate how to select high-utility prompts before the rollout phase. Our experimental analysis reveals that sample utility is non-uniform and evolving: the strongest learning signals concentrate at the ``learning edge", the intersection of intermediate difficulty and high uncertainty, which shifts as training proceeds. Motivated by this, we propose HIVE (History-Informed and online-VErified prompt selection), a dual-stage framework for data-efficient RL. HIVE utilizes historical reward trajectories for coarse selection and employs prompt entropy as a real-time proxy to prune instances with stale utility. By evaluating HIVE across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and models, we show that HIVE yields significant rollout efficiency without compromising performance.

Popular offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods rely on conservatism, either by penalizing out-of-dataset actions or by restricting rollout horizons. In this work, we question the universality of this principle and instead revisit a complementary one: a Bayesian perspective. Rather than enforcing conservatism, the Bayesian approach tackles epistemic uncertainty in offline data by modeling a posterior distribution over plausible world models and training a history-dependent agent to maximize expected rewards, enabling test-time generalization. We first illustrate, in a bandit setting, that Bayesianism excels on low-quality datasets where conservatism fails. We then scale this principle to realistic tasks and show that long-horizon planning is critical for reducing value overestimation once conservatism is removed. To make this feasible, we introduce key design choices for performing and learning from long-horizon rollouts while controlling compounding errors. These yield our algorithm, NEUBAY, grounded in the neutral Bayesian principle. On D4RL and NeoRL benchmarks, NEUBAY generally matches or surpasses leading conservative algorithms, achieving new state-of-the-art on 7 datasets. Notably, it succeeds with rollout horizons of several hundred steps, contrary to dominant practice. Finally, we characterize datasets by quality and coverage, showing when NEUBAY is preferable to conservative methods. Together, we argue NEUBAY lays the foundation for a new practical direction in offline and model-based RL.

We apply empirical Bayes (EB) to mine data on 136,000 long-short strategies constructed from accounting ratios, past returns, and ticker symbols. This ``high-throughput asset pricing'' matches the out-of-sample performance of top journals while eliminating look-ahead bias. Naively mining for the largest Sharpe ratios leads to similar performance, consistent with our theoretical results, though EB uniquely provides unbiased predictions with transparent intuition. Predictability is concentrated in accounting strategies, small stocks, and pre-2004 periods, consistent with limited attention theories. Multiple testing methods popular in finance fail to identify most out-of-sample performers. High-throughput methods provide a rigorous, unbiased framework for understanding asset prices.

Regression-based RL for flow models mandates sampling without classifier-free guidance (CFG) to align the rectification target with the reference marginal velocity. Extending Advantage-Weighted Rectification (AWR), which dynamically scales this regression target based on reward, to video generation encounters a cold-start pathology: unguided rollouts collapse into low-fidelity regions where intra-group reward gaps remain wide but no longer track perceptual quality, rendering the optimization target arbitrary. Conversely, utilizing guided rollouts to restore fidelity, while keeping the regression target tied to the guided sampling distribution, provably triggers a geometric guidance blow-up under exponential-moving-average (EMA) updates. We propose VideoAWR, which resolves this tension by untying sampling from the optimization anchor. An EMA reference policy generates guided rollouts to restore reward separability, while the trainable policy is rectified against the unguided conditional anchor. We prove this decoupled objective is mathematically exact: the centered advantage cancels the anchor in expectation, filtering out the reward-neutral guidance offset and retaining only the reward-correlated covariance increment. Consequently, inference runs single-branch and CFG-free, yet inference-time CFG preserves its original semantics. Furthermore, we introduce Decoupled Timestep Rectification, supervising each rollout at an independently sampled timestep without bias to improve sample efficiency. Experiments on Wan2.1-1.3B and 14B demonstrate stable optimization and superior visual and motion quality in both CFG-free and CFG-enabled regimes. Code is available at \pdfstartlink attr{/Border [0 0 0]} user{/Subtype /Link /A << /S /URI /URI (https://github.com/Fuzm7/FlowAWR) >>}% pearDark{VideoAWR}\pdfendlink.

Few-step autoregressive video generation commonly relies on Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), requiring a bidirectional diffusion teacher and an online fake-score model. We instead learn the rollout distribution directly from reference videos, eliminating both score models during post-training. Our framework minimizes maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in frozen self-supervised video representation spaces, using a hybrid Nyström--Monte Carlo estimator to balance approximation bias and sampling variance. Memory-efficient replay and gradient subsampling make this objective practical. Using the same architecture and initialization as Self-Forcing, our 1.3B model improves the VBench Total score from 83.80 to 84.64 while retaining 17 FPS. Removing auxiliary score models also enables 14B post-training on eight H200 GPUs. Beyond distillation, learning from reference videos enables the acquisition of new visual styles, semantic concepts, and spatial priors without a target-specific diffusion teacher.

When adapting Vision Language Action (VLA) models to downstream tasks, multiple rounds of post-training are often required to progressively address policy weaknesses. In this report, we focus on maximizing human efficiency during this iterative process, measured by policy improvement and task throughput per unit of human labor and time. We propose HELP, a Human-Efficient Large-scale robot Post-training pipeline in which two specialized operators supervise twelve robots concurrently. A trained Teleoperator provides high-value remote interventions and recovery demonstrations, while a Floor Operator monitors the robot fleet, triggers takeovers, and performs physical resets. This role specialization improves human efficiency by reducing task switching, lowering operator training costs, and expanding robot interaction coverage. Beyond increasing rollout volume, concurrent supervision also broadens the range of policy behaviors observed by the human team, making recurring failure modes easier to identify and enabling more targeted takeovers, resets, and recovery demonstrations. To efficiently utilize the large and mixed-quality rollout data, HELP incorporates \vlac, an automatic rollout segmentation critic specifically designed for this setting. It separates autonomous trajectories into progress-making, idle, failure-inducing, and recovery segments. Useful rollout segments are retained and combined with Human-in-the-Loop data for the next post-training round. Across four real-world manipulation tasks, HELP achieves 80\%--95\% success rates and improves task throughput by 1.7times--4.2times over the base model. Under matched HITL recovery budgets, VLAC-CUT further amplifies throughput gains by 1.20times--3.43times and success-rate gains by 1.50times--3.00times over HITL-only updates.

We present WebGym, the largest-to-date open-source environment for training realistic visual web agents. Real websites are non-stationary and diverse, making artificial or small-scale task sets insufficient for robust policy learning. WebGym contains nearly 300,000 tasks with rubric-based evaluations across diverse, real-world websites and difficulty levels. We train agents with a simple reinforcement learning (RL) recipe, which trains on the agent's own interaction traces (rollouts), using task rewards as feedback to guide learning. To enable scaling RL, we speed up sampling of trajectories in WebGym by developing a high-throughput asynchronous rollout system, designed specifically for web agents. Our system achieves a 4-5x rollout speedup compared to naive implementations. Second, we scale the task set breadth, depth, and size, which results in continued performance improvement. Fine-tuning a strong base vision-language model, Qwen-3-VL-8B-Instruct, on WebGym results in an improvement in success rate on an out-of-distribution test set from 26.2% to 42.9%, significantly outperforming agents based on proprietary models such as GPT-4o and GPT-5-Thinking that achieve 27.1% and 29.8%, respectively. This improvement is substantial because our test set consists only of tasks on websites never seen during training, unlike many other prior works on training visual web agents.

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Existing estimators mainly rely on either highly flexible models (e.g., neural networks), which require large amounts of data, or overly simplified models (e.g., Gaussian copula), which fail to capture complex distributions. Drawing upon recent vector copula theory, we propose a principled interpolation between these two extremes to achieve a better trade-off between complexity and capacity. Experiments on state-of-the-art synthetic benchmarks and real-world data with diverse modalities demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Video depth estimation lifts monocular video clips to 3D by inferring dense depth at every frame. Recent advances in single-image depth estimation, brought about by the rise of large foundation models and the use of synthetic training data, have fueled a renewed interest in video depth. However, naively applying a single-image depth estimator to every frame of a video disregards temporal continuity, which not only leads to flickering but may also break when camera motion causes sudden changes in depth range. An obvious and principled solution would be to build on top of video foundation models, but these come with their own limitations; including expensive training and inference, imperfect 3D consistency, and stitching routines for the fixed-length (short) outputs. We take a step back and demonstrate how to turn a single-image latent diffusion model (LDM) into a state-of-the-art video depth estimator. Our model, which we call RollingDepth, has two main ingredients: (i) a multi-frame depth estimator that is derived from a single-image LDM and maps very short video snippets (typically frame triplets) to depth snippets. (ii) a robust, optimization-based registration algorithm that optimally assembles depth snippets sampled at various different frame rates back into a consistent video. RollingDepth is able to efficiently handle long videos with hundreds of frames and delivers more accurate depth videos than both dedicated video depth estimators and high-performing single-frame models. Project page: rollingdepth.github.io.

Where do learning signals come from when there is no ground truth in post-training? We propose turning exploration into supervision through Compute as Teacher (CaT), which converts the model's own exploration at inference-time into reference-free supervision by synthesizing a single reference from a group of parallel rollouts and then optimizing toward it. Concretely, the current policy produces a group of rollouts; a frozen anchor (the initial policy) reconciles omissions and contradictions to estimate a reference, turning extra inference-time compute into a teacher signal. We turn this into rewards in two regimes: (i) verifiable tasks use programmatic equivalence on final answers; (ii) non-verifiable tasks use self-proposed rubrics-binary, auditable criteria scored by an independent LLM judge, with reward given by the fraction satisfied. Unlike selection methods (best-of-N, majority, perplexity, or judge scores), synthesis may disagree with the majority and be correct even when all rollouts are wrong; performance scales with the number of rollouts. As a test-time procedure, CaT improves Gemma 3 4B, Qwen 3 4B, and Llama 3.1 8B (up to +27% on MATH-500; +12% on HealthBench). With reinforcement learning (CaT-RL), we obtain further gains (up to +33% and +30%), with the trained policy surpassing the initial teacher signal.

Offline model selection (OMS), that is, choosing the best policy from a set of many policies given only logged data, is crucial for applying offline RL in real-world settings. One idea that has been extensively explored is to select policies based on the mean squared Bellman error (MSBE) of the associated Q-functions. However, previous work has struggled to obtain adequate OMS performance with Bellman errors, leading many researchers to abandon the idea. To this end, we elucidate why previous work has seen pessimistic results with Bellman errors and identify conditions under which OMS algorithms based on Bellman errors will perform well. Moreover, we develop a new estimator of the MSBE that is more accurate than prior methods. Our estimator obtains impressive OMS performance on diverse discrete control tasks, including Atari games.

Behavior-cloned diffusion policies are expressive but remain vulnerable to covariate shift: small deviations from demonstrated states can compound into task failure. Existing methods address this either by expanding the training distribution through expert corrections or synthetic augmentation, or by steering a frozen policy at test time with guidance from a learned model. The former can be expensive or assumption-dependent, while the latter discards the corrected trajectories after execution. We introduce ReGuide, a self-improving framework that treats guided rollouts as reusable on-policy recovery data. ReGuide first uses Phase-Conditioned Guidance (PCG) to generate corrective rollouts: it constructs phase-specific latent targets, applies guidance only in the drifted-but-recoverable regime, and guides through the estimated clean action to match the dynamics model's training distribution. Successful guided rollouts are then absorbed back into the policy through ReGuide-FT, which fine-tunes the current checkpoint, or ReGuide-FS, which retrains from scratch on the augmented dataset; the two can also be composed and iterated. On Robomimic Can, Square, Transport, and Tool Hang, ReGuide improves base-policy success by 1.3--7.7times, outperforms LPB in the test-time-only setting, and matched-data ablations show that the gains come from guided recovery data rather than additional rollouts alone.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a representative post-training paradigm for LLMs, enabling strong reasoning and agentic capabilities. However, rollout generation remains a dominant latency bottleneck because autoregressive sampling decodes responses sequentially and a small number of long-tailed generations often determine completion time. Speculative decoding (SD) offers a natural way to address this bottleneck, as it is a well-established technique for serving fixed LLMs that reduces latency by rapidly drafting tokens and accepting them through parallel verification while preserving the target-model distribution. However, its practical speedups do not directly carry over to RL rollouts: (i) the evolving target policy makes any fixed drafter increasingly mismatched with the policy's output distribution; and (ii) active batch sizes shrink throughout rollout decoding, shifting decoding from compute-bound to memory-bound regimes where parallel verification can exploit underutilized compute. Therefore, accelerating RL rollouts requires both a drafter that remains effective under long, high-temperature generations from an evolving policy and system-aware use of SD that avoids compute-bound regimes. We present EfficientRollout, a system-aware self-SD framework designed to address this gap for RL rollouts. EfficientRollout induces a quantized drafter from the target model (i.e. self-speculative decoding), keeping it coupled to the evolving policy without separate drafter pretraining or online adaptation. It further coordinates a system-aware SD toggle policy with acceptance-aware draft-length adaptation, enabling speculation only in beneficial regimes while matching the drafting budget to evolving drafter quality. EfficientRollout reduces rollout and end-to-end latency by up to 19.6% and 12.7%, respectively, over an accelerated AR rollout baseline, while preserving final model quality.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is becoming increasingly important for post-training large language models (LLMs). Previous RL pipelines for LLMs were mostly synchronous and batch-interleaved, which is inefficient for long-horizon agentic tasks. Recently, asynchronous RL has emerged as a more efficient alternative by updating the model as rollouts arrive. However, existing asynchronous RL systems often emphasize throughput, while leaving training stability and task effectiveness largely underexplored. For example, a key challenge is that group-wise sampling in the widely-used GRPO framework does not naturally fit asynchronous agentic training. In this paper, we present Single-rollout Asynchronous Optimization (SAO) to address the stability and off-policy challenges in asynchronous RL. To reduce off-policy effects and improve generalization, we replace group-wise sampling with single-rollout sampling, that is, using one rollout per prompt. We further improve this single-rollout strategy with practical value-model training designs. To improve optimization stability, we introduce a strict double-side token-level clipping strategy. SAO is able to train stably for one thousand steps and consistently outperform GRPO and its variants on agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, such as SWE-Bench Verified, BeyondAIME, and IMOAnswerBench. We also demonstrate that single-rollout RL is particularly effective in a simulated online learning setting, where the model must adapt to changing evolving environments. To this end, SAO is successfully deployed in the agentic RL pipeline for training the open GLM-5.2 model (750B-A40B).

Joint-embedding world models enable visual planning by learning action-conditioned dynamics in latent space. Yet they are commonly trained for one-step prediction on encoded states, while planning recursively applies the learned transition to its own predictions. One-step accuracy therefore does not capture how prediction errors propagate under recursive rollout. We decompose multi-step rollout error into the errors introduced at individual steps and their propagation through subsequent transitions. We show that state-affine dynamics are precisely the differentiable transitions with state-independent Jacobians, eliminating the nonlinear propagation residual and making the error propagation operators depend only on the action sequence. Guided by this result, we introduce SALT (State-Affine Latent Transition), an action-conditioned state-affine dynamics model in which the action modulates both the state transformation and the additive update. We train SALT through recursive multi-step rollout supervision, feeding each predicted latent state back into the transition so that training matches how the model is used during planning. Across four visual planning environments, SALT exhibits 1.48--2.19times higher one-step prediction error than the matched LeWM baseline, yet improves closed-loop success in every environment by 10.0 percentage points on average. On OGBench-Cube, the fraction of episodes that fail with a sharp rise in model-predicted cost after execution decreases from 23.3% to 2.0%.

This paper discusses pairing double/debiased machine learning (DDML) with stacking, a model averaging method for combining multiple candidate learners, to estimate structural parameters. In addition to conventional stacking, we consider two stacking variants available for DDML: short-stacking exploits the cross-fitting step of DDML to substantially reduce the computational burden and pooled stacking enforces common stacking weights over cross-fitting folds. Using calibrated simulation studies and two applications estimating gender gaps in citations and wages, we show that DDML with stacking is more robust to partially unknown functional forms than common alternative approaches based on single pre-selected learners. We provide Stata and R software implementing our proposals.

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that can be seen as a generalization and improvement of the celebrated Chernoff method. At its heart, it is based on a class of composite nonnegative martingales, with strong connections to testing by betting and the method of mixtures. We show how to extend these ideas to sampling without replacement, another heavily studied problem. In all cases, our bounds are adaptive to the unknown variance, and empirically vastly outperform existing approaches based on Hoeffding or empirical Bernstein inequalities and their recent supermartingale generalizations. In short, we establish a new state-of-the-art for four fundamental problems: CSs and CIs for bounded means, when sampling with and without replacement.

On-policy distillation has recently emerged as a promising alternative to standard sequence-level imitation, training a student by scoring its own rollouts with a teacher model. However, we observe ``Off-policy Teacher Decay'' problem in this paradigm: for the later tokens, with student's earlier trajectory as context that is off-policy to the teacher, the teacher's ability to produce a corrective score would decay, and may fall back to token-completion behavior learned in the pre-training stage. We empirically verify this problem, and we propose Early Stopping Rollout (ESR) to fix it: a simple yet effective distillation strategy that simply restricts the rollout generation to the first response tokens. We show that ESR both surpasses the full rollout OPD performance across model size, family, tasks and training regime, and exhibit much higher GPU efficiency and training stability, especially under cross model family scenarios. We further investigate the mechanism behind this surprising performance and discovered "Cascading Alignment" and "Sub-mode Commitment" effect of ESR that may explain why it works effectively and even sometimes exceeding the teacher model performance. Besides, we show that this position-based token selection strategy cannot be fully explainable by KL divergence and entropy signals.

Recent progress in aligning image and video generative models with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has improved human preference alignment, but existing variants remain inefficient due to sequential rollouts and large numbers of sampling steps, unreliable credit assignment: sparse terminal rewards are uniformly propagated across timesteps, failing to capture the varying criticality of decisions during denoising. In this paper, we present BranchGRPO, a method that restructures the rollout process into a branching tree, where shared prefixes amortize computation and pruning removes low-value paths and redundant depths. BranchGRPO introduces three contributions: (1) a branching scheme that amortizes rollout cost through shared prefixes while preserving exploration diversity; (2) a reward fusion and depth-wise advantage estimator that transforms sparse terminal rewards into dense step-level signals; and (3) pruning strategies that cut gradient computation but leave forward rollouts and exploration unaffected. On HPDv2.1 image alignment, BranchGRPO improves alignment scores by up to 16\% over DanceGRPO, while reducing per-iteration training time by nearly 55\%. A hybrid variant, BranchGRPO-Mix, further accelerates training to 4.7x faster than DanceGRPO without degrading alignment. On WanX video generation, it further achieves higher Video-Align scores with sharper and temporally consistent frames compared to DanceGRPO. Codes are available at https://fredreic1849.github.io/BranchGRPO-Webpage/{BranchGRPO}.

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, S_P sim P^n and S_Q sim Q^m, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the n examples in S_P with a positive label, and by pairing the m examples in S_Q with a negative label. If the null hypothesis "P = Q" is true, then the classification accuracy of a binary classifier on a held-out subset of this dataset should remain near chance-level. As we will show, such Classifier Two-Sample Tests (C2ST) learn a suitable representation of the data on the fly, return test statistics in interpretable units, have a simple null distribution, and their predictive uncertainty allow to interpret where P and Q differ. The goal of this paper is to establish the properties, performance, and uses of C2ST. First, we analyze their main theoretical properties. Second, we compare their performance against a variety of state-of-the-art alternatives. Third, we propose their use to evaluate the sample quality of generative models with intractable likelihoods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Fourth, we showcase the novel application of GANs together with C2ST for causal discovery.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Reinforcement mid-training lets language models learn internal thoughts from unlabeled text, but efficient token-level credit assignment remains challenging. Existing group-relative methods require costly repeated generation. Learned critics offer single-rollout feedback, but accurate return prediction alone does not ensure reliable policy updates. Our analysis shows how training--inference mismatch and PPO clipping prevent a common offset in advantage estimates from cancelling out, introducing additional update drift. We propose , a twin-critic method that calibrates token-level advantages from a single generated trajectory. After warmup and held-out qualification, the critics provide two advantage estimates, combined using action-dependent weights learned through a conditional-moment saddle-point objective. This objective brings the average advantage at each prefix toward zero, while a signal-retention constraint prevents the correction from erasing the learning signal. Sharing information across text positions avoids repeated sampling of each prefix. Theoretically, we characterize optimal mixing under the signal-retention constraint and establish an upper bound on residual mean-induced drift. Experiments show that, compared with the state-of-the-art critic-free method, improves mean benchmark performance by 7.8\% and reduces mean training-step time by up to 63.4\%.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Reinforcement learning fine-tuning has become the dominant approach for aligning diffusion models with human preferences. However, assessing images is intrinsically a multi-dimensional task, and multiple evaluation criteria need to be optimized simultaneously. Existing practice deal with multiple rewards by training one specialist model per reward, optimizing a weighted-sum reward R(x)=sum_k w_k R_k(x), or sequentially fine-tuning with a hand-crafted stage schedule. These approaches either fail to produce a unified model that can be jointly trained on all rewards or necessitates heavy manually tuned sequential training. We find that the failure stems from using a naive weighted-sum reward aggregation. This approach suffers from a sample-level mismatch because most rollouts are specialist samples, highly informative for certain reward dimensions but irrelevant for others; consequently, weighted summation dilutes their supervision. To address this issue, we propose MARBLE (Multi-Aspect Reward BaLancE), a gradient-space optimization framework that maintains independent advantage estimators for each reward, computes per-reward policy gradients, and harmonizes them into a single update direction without manually-tuned reward weighting, by solving a Quadratic Programming problem. We further propose an amortized formulation that exploits the affine structure of the loss used in DiffusionNFT, to reduce the per-step cost from K+1 backward passes to near single-reward baseline cost, together with EMA smoothing on the balancing coefficients to stabilize updates against transient single-batch fluctuations. On SD3.5 Medium with five rewards, MARBLE improves all five reward dimensions simultaneously, turns the worst-aligned reward's gradient cosine from negative under weighted summation in 80% of mini-batches to consistently positive, and runs at 0.97X the training speed of baseline training.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a promising approach for enhancing reasoning and agentic behavior in large language models. However, rollout-intensive policy optimization is often limited by insufficient reward contrast, arising when overly simple or complex prompts generate low-variance feedback and when outcome-only rewards assign the same terminal assessment to every decision in a multi-turn rollout. Past efforts have focused on allocating available rollout resources to promising prompts, yet they only leverage sample informativeness at the prompt level and neglect variation in prefix-level informativeness across turns within the same rollout. This work targets multi-turn agentic RL by modeling each ReAct-style thought-action-observation turn as a semantically distinct node, allowing budget allocation to extend from prompt roots to turn-level prefixes with further continuations, which naturally forms tree-structured rollouts. We introduce Tree Rollout Allocation for Contrastive Exploration (TRACE), a unified rollout allocation framework that enhances reward contrast within a fixed sampling budget. Technically, TRACE allocates rollout budget to both prompt roots and intermediate prefixes that are most likely to yield mixed terminal rewards. A shared generalizable predictor estimates conditional success probability at these anchors from prefix histories to guide this allocation. The resulting adaptive tree structure enriches outcome-only feedback and amplifies the policy-update signal. Empirically, TRACE achieves competitive performance and efficiency gains on typical agentic benchmarks, e.g., improving Qwen3-14B Multi-Hop QA average accuracy by 2.8 points over competitive baselines at equal sampling cost.

This work studies the convergence of two-timescale stochastic approximations (SA), a class of iterative algorithms that update two sets of parameters in fast and slow timescales respectively. Notable examples of two-timescale SA in reinforcement learning (RL) include temporal difference learning with gradient correction (TDC) and actor-critic methods. Previously, the stability (i.e., boundedness) and convergence of two-timescale SA were only established under i.i.d. noise. This work instead establishes the stability and convergence of two-timescale SA under Markovian noise, a setup that is more realistic in RL. Notably, we do not need to use any projection operator and the noise does not need to live in a compact space. Our key technical novelty is to control the fast timescale parameter with the running max of the slow timescale parameter, instead of with the current slow timescale parameter, as most prior works do. As a key application, we establish the first almost sure convergence of TDC with eligibility traces under off-policy learning with linear function approximation.

Recent reinforcement learning methods for diffusion large language models (dLLMs) commonly rely on on-policy rollouts generated by the target dLLM itself. When successful on-policy rollouts are scarce, however, on-policy training may receive little positive reward and make only limited progress. To mitigate this problem, we explore incorporating higher-reward rollouts generated by a stronger external policy alongside on-policy rollouts from the target dLLM. However, directly incorporating these external rollouts introduces two practical challenges: differences in rollout length and instability when jointly processing rewards from on-policy and external rollouts. To address these challenges, we propose External Rollout Integration with Length Control and Source-Specific Processing (ERILS), which controls external-rollout length and processes the rewards of on-policy and external rollouts separately. Experiments on Sudoku, Countdown, and MATH500 under zero-shot evaluation show that ERILS improves multi-sample performance across all three tasks, with the largest gains on Sudoku. On Sudoku, ERILS achieves 98.4% best-of-4 completion accuracy, compared with 40.3% for the strongest baseline. ERILS also maintains approximately 90% deterministic single-completion accuracy on Sudoku across generation lengths of 128, 256, and 512 tokens. Our component analysis further shows that length-controlled external rollouts are more effective than uncontrolled external rollouts, and that source-specific reward processing avoids the training collapse observed with joint reward processing. These results show that rollout construction and reward processing are important design dimensions when integrating external rollouts into dLLM reinforcement learning.

Policy-gradient methods usually optimize expected return, but many real world applications care about distributional properties of returns: tail risk, outlier robustness, or best-of-K discovery. We introduce OrderGrad, a family of likelihood-ratio and reparameterization gradient estimators for order-statistic objectives. OrderGrad optimizes finite-sample L-statistics, i.e., weighted averages of sorted rewards or costs, recovering objectives such as VaR, CVaR, trimmed means, medians, and top-m/best-of-K criteria by changing only the rank weights. For any fixed sample size and rank-weight vector, OrderGrad provides an unbiased gradient estimator for the corresponding order-statistic objective. The method is implemented as a simple reward transformation that can then be used in an otherwise standard policy-gradient or reparameterized update. We study the resulting estimator's variance behavior and evaluate it on tasks where mean optimization is mismatched to the deployment objective, including LLM math post-training and other tasks. OrderGrad provides a unified, plug-and-play route to risk-averse, robust, and exploratory learning. Code: https://github.com/paavo5/ordergrad

In on-policy distillation (OPD), the student determines which states receive teacher supervision. As its policy evolves, earlier response prefixes become less likely even though teacher-student disagreement on them persists. Under matched trajectory and optimization budgets, neither more queries nor more frequent rollout resampling is uniformly beneficial. Current-policy rollouts outperform initial-policy rollouts at shorter response budgets, but this ranking reverses at longer budgets. Replaying initial-policy rollouts after current-policy training improves accuracy, whereas replaying fixed recent rollouts does not reproduce the gain. We propose R-OPD, a gradient-triggered curriculum that adaptively selects when to revisit initial-student trajectories. When changes in mean gradients fall within minibatch-level variation for two consecutive comparisons, training switches from the next iteration onward to initial-policy replay. Across eight mathematics benchmarks and three training-data orders, R-OPD improves average accuracy over continued current-policy sampling by 2.25/4.44 percentage points at 16K/32K for a 0.6B student and 2.81/6.15 points for a 1.7B student. With a 30B-A3B teacher, it improves 8B accuracy by 4.05 points at 32K. At 32K, R-OPD exceeds a fixed schedule of 40 current-policy updates followed by 20 replay updates by 1.39/1.66/1.85 points for 0.6B/1.7B/8B. At the same generation cap, R-OPD also produces longer responses, suggesting that well-timed revisits help students use more of their reasoning capacity.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

Recorrupted-to-Recorrupted (R2R) has emerged as a methodology for training deep networks for image restoration in a self-supervised manner from noisy measurement data alone, demonstrating equivalence in expectation to the supervised squared loss in the case of Gaussian noise. However, its effectiveness with non-Gaussian noise remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose Generalized R2R (GR2R), extending the R2R framework to handle a broader class of noise distribution as additive noise like log-Rayleigh and address the natural exponential family including Poisson and Gamma noise distributions, which play a key role in many applications including low-photon imaging and synthetic aperture radar. We show that the GR2R loss is an unbiased estimator of the supervised loss and that the popular Stein's unbiased risk estimator can be seen as a special case. A series of experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noise validate GR2R's performance, showing its effectiveness compared to other self-supervised methods.

In modern machine learning problems we deal with datasets that are either distributed by nature or potentially large for which distributing the computations is usually a standard way to proceed, since centralized algorithms are in general ineffective. We propose a distributed learning approach for mixtures of experts (MoE) models with an aggregation strategy to construct a reduction estimator from local estimators fitted parallelly to distributed subsets of the data. The aggregation is based on an optimal minimization of an expected transportation divergence between the large MoE composed of local estimators and the unknown desired MoE model. We show that the provided reduction estimator is consistent as soon as the local estimators to be aggregated are consistent, and its construction is performed by a proposed majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm that is computationally effective. We study the statistical and numerical properties for the proposed reduction estimator on experiments that demonstrate its performance compared to namely the global estimator constructed in a centralized way from the full dataset. For some situations, the computation time is more than ten times faster, for a comparable performance. Our source codes are publicly available on Github.

Learning models with categorical variables requires optimizing expectations over discrete distributions, a setting in which stochastic gradient-based optimization is challenging due to the non-differentiability of categorical sampling. A common workaround is to replace the discrete distribution with a continuous relaxation, yielding a smooth surrogate that admits reparameterized gradient estimates via the reparameterization trick. Building on this idea, we introduce ReDGE, a novel and efficient diffusion-based soft reparameterization method for categorical distributions. Our approach defines a flexible class of gradient estimators that includes the Straight-Through estimator as a special case. Experiments spanning latent variable models and inference-time reward guidance in discrete diffusion models demonstrate that ReDGE consistently matches or outperforms existing gradient-based methods. The code will be made available at https://github.com/samsongourevitch/redge.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solvers relies on their ability to provide accurate, stable predictions over long time horizons, which is a notoriously hard problem. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of common temporal rollout strategies, identifying the neglect of non-dominant spatial frequency information, often associated with high frequencies in PDE solutions, as the primary pitfall limiting stable, accurate rollout performance. Based on these insights, we draw inspiration from recent advances in diffusion models to introduce PDE-Refiner; a novel model class that enables more accurate modeling of all frequency components via a multistep refinement process. We validate PDE-Refiner on challenging benchmarks of complex fluid dynamics, demonstrating stable and accurate rollouts that consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including neural, numerical, and hybrid neural-numerical architectures. We further demonstrate that PDE-Refiner greatly enhances data efficiency, since the denoising objective implicitly induces a novel form of spectral data augmentation. Finally, PDE-Refiner's connection to diffusion models enables an accurate and efficient assessment of the model's predictive uncertainty, allowing us to estimate when the surrogate becomes inaccurate.