Daily Papers

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a neural network compression technique that converts a full-precision model into a quantized model using lower-precision data types. Although it can help reduce the size and computational cost of deep neural networks, it can also introduce quantization noise and reduce prediction accuracy, especially in extremely low-bit settings. How to determine the appropriate quantization parameters (e.g., scaling factors and rounding of weights) is the main problem facing now. Existing methods attempt to determine these parameters by minimize the distance between features before and after quantization, but such an approach only considers local information and may not result in the most optimal quantization parameters. We analyze this issue and ropose PD-Quant, a method that addresses this limitation by considering global information. It determines the quantization parameters by using the information of differences between network prediction before and after quantization. In addition, PD-Quant can alleviate the overfitting problem in PTQ caused by the small number of calibration sets by adjusting the distribution of activations. Experiments show that PD-Quant leads to better quantization parameters and improves the prediction accuracy of quantized models, especially in low-bit settings. For example, PD-Quant pushes the accuracy of ResNet-18 up to 53.14% and RegNetX-600MF up to 40.67% in weight 2-bit activation 2-bit. The code is released at https://github.com/hustvl/PD-Quant.

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at 0.25^{circ} resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

Masked autoregressive models (MAR) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for image and video generation, combining the flexibility of masked modeling with the potential of continuous tokenizer. However, video MAR models suffer from two major limitations: the slow-start problem, caused by the lack of a structured global prior at early sampling stages, and error accumulation across the autoregression in both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this work, we propose CanvasMAR, a novel video MAR model that mitigates these issues by introducing a canvas mechanism--a blurred, global prediction of the next frame, used as the starting point for masked generation. The canvas provides global structure early in sampling, enabling faster and more coherent frame synthesis. Furthermore, we introduce compositional classifier-free guidance that jointly enlarges spatial (canvas) and temporal conditioning, and employ noise-based canvas augmentation to enhance robustness. Experiments on the BAIR and Kinetics-600 benchmarks demonstrate that CanvasMAR produces high-quality videos with fewer autoregressive steps. Our approach achieves remarkable performance among autoregressive models on Kinetics-600 dataset and rivals diffusion-based methods.

The efficient extraction of text information from the background in degraded color document images is an important challenge in the preservation of ancient manuscripts. The imperfect preservation of ancient manuscripts has led to different types of degradation over time, such as page yellowing, staining, and ink bleeding, seriously affecting the results of document image binarization. This work proposes an effective three-stage network method to image enhancement and binarization of degraded documents using generative adversarial networks (GANs). Specifically, in Stage-1, we first split the input images into multiple patches, and then split these patches into four single-channel patch images (gray, red, green, and blue). Then, three single-channel patch images (red, green, and blue) are processed by the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) with normalization. In Stage-2, we use four independent generators to separately train GAN models based on the four channels on the processed patch images to extract color foreground information. Finally, in Stage-3, we train two independent GAN models on the outputs of Stage-2 and the resized original input images (512x512) as the local and global predictions to obtain the final outputs. The experimental results show that the Avg-Score metrics of the proposed method are 77.64, 77.95, 79.05, 76.38, 75.34, and 77.00 on the (H)-DIBCO 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018 datasets, which are at the state-of-the-art level. The implementation code for this work is available at https://github.com/abcpp12383/ThreeStageBinarization.

Recipe generation from food images and ingredients is a challenging task, which requires the interpretation of the information from another modality. Different from the image captioning task, where the captions usually have one sentence, cooking instructions contain multiple sentences and have obvious structures. To help the model capture the recipe structure and avoid missing some cooking details, we propose a novel framework: Decomposing Generation Networks (DGN) with structure prediction, to get more structured and complete recipe generation outputs. Specifically, we split each cooking instruction into several phases, and assign different sub-generators to each phase. Our approach includes two novel ideas: (i) learning the recipe structures with the global structure prediction component and (ii) producing recipe phases in the sub-generator output component based on the predicted structure. Extensive experiments on the challenging large-scale Recipe1M dataset validate the effectiveness of our proposed model, which improves the performance over the state-of-the-art results.

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

Embodied AI requires agents that perceive, act, and anticipate how actions reshape future world states. World models serve as internal simulators that capture environment dynamics, enabling forward and counterfactual rollouts to support perception, prediction, and decision making. This survey presents a unified framework for world models in embodied AI. Specifically, we formalize the problem setting and learning objectives, and propose a three-axis taxonomy encompassing: (1) Functionality, Decision-Coupled vs. General-Purpose; (2) Temporal Modeling, Sequential Simulation and Inference vs. Global Difference Prediction; (3) Spatial Representation, Global Latent Vector, Token Feature Sequence, Spatial Latent Grid, and Decomposed Rendering Representation. We systematize data resources and metrics across robotics, autonomous driving, and general video settings, covering pixel prediction quality, state-level understanding, and task performance. Furthermore, we offer a quantitative comparison of state-of-the-art models and distill key open challenges, including the scarcity of unified datasets and the need for evaluation metrics that assess physical consistency over pixel fidelity, the trade-off between model performance and the computational efficiency required for real-time control, and the core modeling difficulty of achieving long-horizon temporal consistency while mitigating error accumulation. Finally, we maintain a curated bibliography at https://github.com/Li-Zn-H/AwesomeWorldModels.

Attentional, RNN-based encoder-decoder models for abstractive summarization have achieved good performance on short input and output sequences. For longer documents and summaries however these models often include repetitive and incoherent phrases. We introduce a neural network model with a novel intra-attention that attends over the input and continuously generated output separately, and a new training method that combines standard supervised word prediction and reinforcement learning (RL). Models trained only with supervised learning often exhibit "exposure bias" - they assume ground truth is provided at each step during training. However, when standard word prediction is combined with the global sequence prediction training of RL the resulting summaries become more readable. We evaluate this model on the CNN/Daily Mail and New York Times datasets. Our model obtains a 41.16 ROUGE-1 score on the CNN/Daily Mail dataset, an improvement over previous state-of-the-art models. Human evaluation also shows that our model produces higher quality summaries.

Recent advancements in learned image compression (LIC) have yielded impressive performance gains. Notably, the learned image compression models with multi-reference entropy models (MLIC series) have significantly outperformed existing traditional image codecs such as the Versatile Video Coding (VVC) Intra. In this paper, we present MLICv2 and MLICv2^+, enhanced versions of the MLIC series, featuring improved transform techniques, entropy modeling, and instance adaptability. For better transform, we introduce a simple token mixing transform block inspired by the meta transformer architecture, addressing the performance degradation at high bit-rates observed in previous MLIC series while maintaining computational efficiency. To enhance entropy modeling, we propose a hyperprior-guided global correlation prediction, enabling the capture of global contexts in the initial slice of the latent representation. We also develop a channel reweighting module to dynamically prioritize important channels within each context. Additionally, advanced positional embedding for context modeling and selective compression with guided optimization are investigated. To boost instance adaptability, we employ stochastic Gumbel annealing to iteratively refine the latent representation according to the rate-distortion optimization of a specific input image. This approach further enhances performance without impacting decoding speed. Experimental results demonstrate that our MLICv2 and MLICv2^+ achieve state-of-the-art performance, reducing Bjontegaard-Delta rate (BD-rate) by 16.54%, 21.61%, 16.05% and 20.46%, 24.35%, 19.14% respectively, compared to VTM-17.0 Intra on the Kodak, Tecnick, CLIC Pro Val dataset, respectively.

Knowledge distillation aims to train a compact student network using soft supervision from a larger teacher network and hard supervision from ground truths. However, determining an optimal knowledge fusion ratio that balances these supervisory signals remains challenging. Prior methods generally resort to a constant or heuristic-based fusion ratio, which often falls short of a proper balance. In this study, we introduce a novel adaptive method for learning a sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio, exploiting both the correctness of teacher and student, as well as how well the student mimics the teacher on each sample. Our method naturally leads to the intra-sample trilateral geometric relations among the student prediction (S), teacher prediction (T), and ground truth (G). To counterbalance the impact of outliers, we further extend to the inter-sample relations, incorporating the teacher's global average prediction T for samples within the same class. A simple neural network then learns the implicit mapping from the intra- and inter-sample relations to an adaptive, sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio in a bilevel-optimization manner. Our approach provides a simple, practical, and adaptable solution for knowledge distillation that can be employed across various architectures and model sizes. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over other loss re-weighting methods on image classification, attack detection, and click-through rate prediction.

Recent methods for neural surface representation and rendering, for example NeuS, have demonstrated the remarkably high-quality reconstruction of static scenes. However, the training of NeuS takes an extremely long time (8 hours), which makes it almost impossible to apply them to dynamic scenes with thousands of frames. We propose a fast neural surface reconstruction approach, called NeuS2, which achieves two orders of magnitude improvement in terms of acceleration without compromising reconstruction quality. To accelerate the training process, we parameterize a neural surface representation by multi-resolution hash encodings and present a novel lightweight calculation of second-order derivatives tailored to our networks to leverage CUDA parallelism, achieving a factor two speed up. To further stabilize and expedite training, a progressive learning strategy is proposed to optimize multi-resolution hash encodings from coarse to fine. We extend our method for fast training of dynamic scenes, with a proposed incremental training strategy and a novel global transformation prediction component, which allow our method to handle challenging long sequences with large movements and deformations. Our experiments on various datasets demonstrate that NeuS2 significantly outperforms the state-of-the-arts in both surface reconstruction accuracy and training speed for both static and dynamic scenes. The code is available at our website: https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/NeuS2/ .

Plant traits such as leaf carbon content and leaf mass are essential variables in the study of biodiversity and climate change. However, conventional field sampling cannot feasibly cover trait variation at ecologically meaningful spatial scales. Machine learning represents a valuable solution for plant trait prediction across ecosystems, leveraging hyperspectral data from remote sensing. Nevertheless, trait prediction from hyperspectral data is challenged by label scarcity and substantial domain shifts (\eg across sensors, ecological distributions), requiring robust cross-domain methods. Here, we present GreenHyperSpectra, a pretraining dataset encompassing real-world cross-sensor and cross-ecosystem samples designed to benchmark trait prediction with semi- and self-supervised methods. We adopt an evaluation framework encompassing in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios. We successfully leverage GreenHyperSpectra to pretrain label-efficient multi-output regression models that outperform the state-of-the-art supervised baseline. Our empirical analyses demonstrate substantial improvements in learning spectral representations for trait prediction, establishing a comprehensive methodological framework to catalyze research at the intersection of representation learning and plant functional traits assessment. All code and data are available at: https://github.com/echerif18/HyspectraSSL.

Business Intelligence (BI) is crucial in modern enterprises and billion-dollar business. Traditionally, technical experts like database administrators would manually prepare BI-models (e.g., in star or snowflake schemas) that join tables in data warehouses, before less-technical business users can run analytics using end-user dashboarding tools. However, the popularity of self-service BI (e.g., Tableau and Power-BI) in recent years creates a strong demand for less technical end-users to build BI-models themselves. We develop an Auto-BI system that can accurately predict BI models given a set of input tables, using a principled graph-based optimization problem we propose called k-Min-Cost-Arborescence (k-MCA), which holistically considers both local join prediction and global schema-graph structures, leveraging a graph-theoretical structure called arborescence. While we prove k-MCA is intractable and inapproximate in general, we develop novel algorithms that can solve k-MCA optimally, which is shown to be efficient in practice with sub-second latency and can scale to the largest BI-models we encounter (with close to 100 tables). Auto-BI is rigorously evaluated on a unique dataset with over 100K real BI models we harvested, as well as on 4 popular TPC benchmarks. It is shown to be both efficient and accurate, achieving over 0.9 F1-score on both real and synthetic benchmarks.

We present Autoregressive Representation Alignment (ARRA), a new training framework that unlocks global-coherent text-to-image generation in autoregressive LLMs without architectural changes. Unlike prior work that requires complex architectural redesigns, ARRA aligns LLM hidden states with visual representations from external visual foundational models via a global visual alignment loss and a hybrid token, <HYBNEXT>. This token enforces dual constraints: local next-token prediction and global semantic distillation, enabling LLMs to implicitly learn spatial and contextual coherence while retaining their original autoregressive paradigm. Extensive experiments validate ARRA's plug-and-play versatility. When training from text-generation-only LLMs or random initialization, ARRA reduces FID by 25.5% (MIMIC-CXR), 8.8% (DeepEyeNet), and 7.5% (ImageNet) for advanced autoregressive LLMs like Chameleon and LlamaGen, all without framework modifications. For domain adaption, ARRA aligns general-purpose LLMs with specialized models (e.g., BioMedCLIP), achieving an 18.6% FID reduction over direct fine-tuning on medical imaging (MIMIC-CXR). By demonstrating that training objective redesign -- not just architectural innovation -- can resolve cross-modal global coherence challenges, ARRA offers a complementary paradigm for advancing autoregressive models. Code and models will be released to advance autoregressive image generation.

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

Estimating camera poses is a fundamental task for 3D reconstruction and remains challenging given sparsely sampled views (<10). In contrast to existing approaches that pursue top-down prediction of global parametrizations of camera extrinsics, we propose a distributed representation of camera pose that treats a camera as a bundle of rays. This representation allows for a tight coupling with spatial image features improving pose precision. We observe that this representation is naturally suited for set-level transformers and develop a regression-based approach that maps image patches to corresponding rays. To capture the inherent uncertainties in sparse-view pose inference, we adapt this approach to learn a denoising diffusion model which allows us to sample plausible modes while improving performance. Our proposed methods, both regression- and diffusion-based, demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on camera pose estimation on CO3D while generalizing to unseen object categories and in-the-wild captures.

Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.

Neural network approaches for meta-learning distributions over functions have desirable properties such as increased flexibility and a reduced complexity of inference. Building on the successes of denoising diffusion models for generative modelling, we propose Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs), a novel approach that learns to sample from a rich distribution over functions through its finite marginals. By introducing a custom attention block we are able to incorporate properties of stochastic processes, such as exchangeability, directly into the NDP's architecture. We empirically show that NDPs can capture functional distributions close to the true Bayesian posterior, demonstrating that they can successfully emulate the behaviour of Gaussian processes and surpass the performance of neural processes. NDPs enable a variety of downstream tasks, including regression, implicit hyperparameter marginalisation, non-Gaussian posterior prediction and global optimisation.

In this paper, we propose a single-shot instance segmentation method, which is simple, fast and accurate. There are two main challenges for one-stage instance segmentation: object instances differentiation and pixel-wise feature alignment. Accordingly, we decompose the instance segmentation into two parallel subtasks: Local Shape prediction that separates instances even in overlapping conditions, and Global Saliency generation that segments the whole image in a pixel-to-pixel manner. The outputs of the two branches are assembled to form the final instance masks. To realize that, the local shape information is adopted from the representation of object center points. Totally trained from scratch and without any bells and whistles, the proposed CenterMask achieves 34.5 mask AP with a speed of 12.3 fps, using a single-model with single-scale training/testing on the challenging COCO dataset. The accuracy is higher than all other one-stage instance segmentation methods except the 5 times slower TensorMask, which shows the effectiveness of CenterMask. Besides, our method can be easily embedded to other one-stage object detectors such as FCOS and performs well, showing the generalization of CenterMask.

By training over large-scale datasets, zero-shot monocular depth estimation (MDE) methods show robust performance in the wild but often suffer from insufficiently precise details. Although recent diffusion-based MDE approaches exhibit appealing detail extraction ability, they still struggle in geometrically challenging scenes due to the difficulty of gaining robust geometric priors from diverse datasets. To leverage the complementary merits of both worlds, we propose BetterDepth to efficiently achieve geometrically correct affine-invariant MDE performance while capturing fine-grained details. Specifically, BetterDepth is a conditional diffusion-based refiner that takes the prediction from pre-trained MDE models as depth conditioning, in which the global depth context is well-captured, and iteratively refines details based on the input image. For the training of such a refiner, we propose global pre-alignment and local patch masking methods to ensure the faithfulness of BetterDepth to depth conditioning while learning to capture fine-grained scene details. By efficient training on small-scale synthetic datasets, BetterDepth achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot MDE performance on diverse public datasets and in-the-wild scenes. Moreover, BetterDepth can improve the performance of other MDE models in a plug-and-play manner without additional re-training.

Modern approaches typically formulate semantic segmentation as a per-pixel classification task, while instance-level segmentation is handled with an alternative mask classification. Our key insight: mask classification is sufficiently general to solve both semantic- and instance-level segmentation tasks in a unified manner using the exact same model, loss, and training procedure. Following this observation, we propose MaskFormer, a simple mask classification model which predicts a set of binary masks, each associated with a single global class label prediction. Overall, the proposed mask classification-based method simplifies the landscape of effective approaches to semantic and panoptic segmentation tasks and shows excellent empirical results. In particular, we observe that MaskFormer outperforms per-pixel classification baselines when the number of classes is large. Our mask classification-based method outperforms both current state-of-the-art semantic (55.6 mIoU on ADE20K) and panoptic segmentation (52.7 PQ on COCO) models.

Monocular 3D occupancy prediction, aiming to predict the occupancy and semantics within interesting regions of 3D scenes from only 2D images, has garnered increasing attention recently for its vital role in 3D scene understanding. Predicting the 3D occupancy of large-scale outdoor scenes from 2D images is ill-posed and resource-intensive. In this paper, we present DGOcc, a Depth-aware Global query-based network for monocular 3D Occupancy prediction. We first explore prior depth maps to extract depth context features that provide explicit geometric information for the occupancy network. Then, in order to fully exploit the depth context features, we propose a Global Query-based (GQ) Module. The cooperation of attention mechanisms and scale-aware operations facilitates the feature interaction between images and 3D voxels. Moreover, a Hierarchical Supervision Strategy (HSS) is designed to avoid upsampling the high-dimension 3D voxel features to full resolution, which mitigates GPU memory utilization and time cost. Extensive experiments on SemanticKITTI and SSCBench-KITTI-360 datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves the best performance on monocular semantic occupancy prediction while reducing GPU and time overhead.

Survival prediction is a complicated ordinal regression task that aims to predict the ranking risk of death, which generally benefits from the integration of histology and genomic data. Despite the progress in joint learning from pathology and genomics, existing methods still suffer from challenging issues: 1) Due to the large size of pathological images, it is difficult to effectively represent the gigapixel whole slide images (WSIs). 2) Interactions within tumor microenvironment (TME) in histology are essential for survival analysis. Although current approaches attempt to model these interactions via co-attention between histology and genomic data, they focus on only dense local similarity across modalities, which fails to capture global consistency between potential structures, i.e. TME-related interactions of histology and co-expression of genomic data. To address these challenges, we propose a Multimodal Optimal Transport-based Co-Attention Transformer framework with global structure consistency, in which optimal transport (OT) is applied to match patches of a WSI and genes embeddings for selecting informative patches to represent the gigapixel WSI. More importantly, OT-based co-attention provides a global awareness to effectively capture structural interactions within TME for survival prediction. To overcome high computational complexity of OT, we propose a robust and efficient implementation over micro-batch of WSI patches by approximating the original OT with unbalanced mini-batch OT. Extensive experiments show the superiority of our method on five benchmark datasets compared to the state-of-the-art methods. The code is released.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

Pre-routing timing prediction has been recently studied for evaluating the quality of a candidate cell placement in chip design. It involves directly estimating the timing metrics for both pin-level (slack, slew) and edge-level (net delay, cell delay), without time-consuming routing. However, it often suffers from signal decay and error accumulation due to the long timing paths in large-scale industrial circuits. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage approach. First, we propose global circuit training to pre-train a graph auto-encoder that learns the global graph embedding from circuit netlist. Second, we use a novel node updating scheme for message passing on GCN, following the topological sorting sequence of the learned graph embedding and circuit graph. This scheme residually models the local time delay between two adjacent pins in the updating sequence, and extracts the lookup table information inside each cell via a new attention mechanism. To handle large-scale circuits efficiently, we introduce an order preserving partition scheme that reduces memory consumption while maintaining the topological dependencies. Experiments on 21 real world circuits achieve a new SOTA R2 of 0.93 for slack prediction, which is significantly surpasses 0.59 by previous SOTA method. Code will be available at: https://github.com/Thinklab-SJTU/EDA-AI.

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

As global fertilizer application rates increase, high-quality datasets are paramount for comprehensive analyses to support informed decision-making and policy formulation in crucial areas such as food security or climate change. This study aims to fill existing data gaps by employing two machine learning models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and HistGradientBoosting algorithms to produce precise country-level predictions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P_2O_5), and potassium oxide (K_2O) application rates. Subsequently, we created a comprehensive dataset of 5-arcmin resolution maps depicting the application rates of each fertilizer for 13 major crop groups from 1961 to 2019. The predictions were validated by both comparing with existing databases and by assessing the drivers of fertilizer application rates using the model's SHapley Additive exPlanations. This extensive dataset is poised to be a valuable resource for assessing fertilization trends, identifying the socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental drivers of fertilizer application rates, and serving as an input for various applications, including environmental modeling, causal analysis, fertilizer price predictions, and forecasting.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive description of the surrounding scenes and has become an essential task for 3D perception. Most existing methods focus on offline perception from one or a few views and cannot be applied to embodied agents that demand to gradually perceive the scene through progressive embodied exploration. In this paper, we formulate an embodied 3D occupancy prediction task to target this practical scenario and propose a Gaussian-based EmbodiedOcc framework to accomplish it. We initialize the global scene with uniform 3D semantic Gaussians and progressively update local regions observed by the embodied agent. For each update, we extract semantic and structural features from the observed image and efficiently incorporate them via deformable cross-attention to refine the regional Gaussians. Finally, we employ Gaussian-to-voxel splatting to obtain the global 3D occupancy from the updated 3D Gaussians. Our EmbodiedOcc assumes an unknown (i.e., uniformly distributed) environment and maintains an explicit global memory of it with 3D Gaussians. It gradually gains knowledge through the local refinement of regional Gaussians, which is consistent with how humans understand new scenes through embodied exploration. We reorganize an EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark based on local annotations to facilitate the evaluation of the embodied 3D occupancy prediction task. Our EmbodiedOcc outperforms existing methods by a large margin and accomplishes the embodied occupancy prediction with high accuracy and efficiency. Code: https://github.com/YkiWu/EmbodiedOcc.

Training deep learning models for semantic occupancy prediction is challenging due to factors such as a large number of occupancy cells, severe occlusion, limited visual cues, complicated driving scenarios, etc. Recent methods often adopt transformer-based architectures given their strong capability in learning input-conditioned weights and long-range relationships. However, transformer-based networks are notorious for their quadratic computation complexity, seriously undermining their efficacy and deployment in semantic occupancy prediction. Inspired by the global modeling and linear computation complexity of the Mamba architecture, we present the first Mamba-based network for semantic occupancy prediction, termed OccMamba. Specifically, we first design the hierarchical Mamba module and local context processor to better aggregate global and local contextual information, respectively. Besides, to relieve the inherent domain gap between the linguistic and 3D domains, we present a simple yet effective 3D-to-1D reordering scheme, i.e., height-prioritized 2D Hilbert expansion. It can maximally retain the spatial structure of 3D voxels as well as facilitate the processing of Mamba blocks. Endowed with the aforementioned designs, our OccMamba is capable of directly and efficiently processing large volumes of dense scene grids, achieving state-of-the-art performance across three prevalent occupancy prediction benchmarks, including OpenOccupancy, SemanticKITTI, and SemanticPOSS. Notably, on OpenOccupancy, our OccMamba outperforms the previous state-of-the-art Co-Occ by 5.1% IoU and 4.3% mIoU, respectively. Our implementation is open-sourced and available at: https://github.com/USTCLH/OccMamba.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Category-Agnostic Pose Estimation (CAPE) localizes keypoints across diverse object categories with a single model, using one or a few annotated support images. Recent works have shown that using a pose graph (i.e., treating keypoints as nodes in a graph rather than isolated points) helps handle occlusions and break symmetry. However, these methods assume a static pose graph with equal-weight edges, leading to suboptimal results. We introduce EdgeCape, a novel framework that overcomes these limitations by predicting the graph's edge weights which optimizes localization. To further leverage structural priors, we propose integrating Markovian Structural Bias, which modulates the self-attention interaction between nodes based on the number of hops between them. We show that this improves the model's ability to capture global spatial dependencies. Evaluated on the MP-100 benchmark, which includes 100 categories and over 20K images, EdgeCape achieves state-of-the-art results in the 1-shot setting and leads among similar-sized methods in the 5-shot setting, significantly improving keypoint localization accuracy. Our code is publicly available.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for understanding and mitigating weather-related impacts. In this paper, we present PuYun, an autoregressive cascade model that leverages large kernel attention convolutional networks. The model's design inherently supports extended weather prediction horizons while broadening the effective receptive field. The integration of large kernel attention mechanisms within the convolutional layers enhances the model's capacity to capture fine-grained spatial details, thereby improving its predictive accuracy for meteorological phenomena. We introduce PuYun, comprising PuYun-Short for 0-5 day forecasts and PuYun-Medium for 5-10 day predictions. This approach enhances the accuracy of 10-day weather forecasting. Through evaluation, we demonstrate that PuYun-Short alone surpasses the performance of both GraphCast and FuXi-Short in generating accurate 10-day forecasts. Specifically, on the 10th day, PuYun-Short reduces the RMSE for Z500 to 720 m^2/s^2, compared to 732 m^2/s^2 for GraphCast and 740 m^2/s^2 for FuXi-Short. Additionally, the RMSE for T2M is reduced to 2.60 K, compared to 2.63 K for GraphCast and 2.65 K for FuXi-Short. Furthermore, when employing a cascaded approach by integrating PuYun-Short and PuYun-Medium, our method achieves superior results compared to the combined performance of FuXi-Short and FuXi-Medium. On the 10th day, the RMSE for Z500 is further reduced to 638 m^2/s^2, compared to 641 m^2/s^2 for FuXi. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our model ensemble in advancing medium-range weather prediction. Our training code and model will be open-sourced.

In this paper, we tackle the problem of scene-aware 3D human motion forecasting. A key challenge of this task is to predict future human motions that are consistent with the scene by modeling the human-scene interactions. While recent works have demonstrated that explicit constraints on human-scene interactions can prevent the occurrence of ghost motion, they only provide constraints on partial human motion e.g., the global motion of the human or a few joints contacting the scene, leaving the rest of the motion unconstrained. To address this limitation, we propose to model the human-scene interaction with the mutual distance between the human body and the scene. Such mutual distances constrain both the local and global human motion, resulting in a whole-body motion constrained prediction. In particular, mutual distance constraints consist of two components, the signed distance of each vertex on the human mesh to the scene surface and the distance of basis scene points to the human mesh. We further introduce a global scene representation learned from a signed distance function (SDF) volume to ensure coherence between the global scene representation and the explicit constraint from the mutual distance. We develop a pipeline with two sequential steps: predicting the future mutual distances first, followed by forecasting future human motion. During training, we explicitly encourage consistency between predicted poses and mutual distances. Extensive evaluations on the existing synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Integrating CNNs and RNNs to capture spatiotemporal dependencies is a prevalent strategy for spatiotemporal prediction tasks. However, the property of CNNs to learn local spatial information decreases their efficiency in capturing spatiotemporal dependencies, thereby limiting their prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new recurrent cell, SwinLSTM, which integrates Swin Transformer blocks and the simplified LSTM, an extension that replaces the convolutional structure in ConvLSTM with the self-attention mechanism. Furthermore, we construct a network with SwinLSTM cell as the core for spatiotemporal prediction. Without using unique tricks, SwinLSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods on Moving MNIST, Human3.6m, TaxiBJ, and KTH datasets. In particular, it exhibits a significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to ConvLSTM. Our competitive experimental results demonstrate that learning global spatial dependencies is more advantageous for models to capture spatiotemporal dependencies. We hope that SwinLSTM can serve as a solid baseline to promote the advancement of spatiotemporal prediction accuracy. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/SongTang-x/SwinLSTM.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Global plant maps of plant traits, such as leaf nitrogen or plant height, are essential for understanding ecosystem processes, including the carbon and energy cycles of the Earth system. However, existing trait maps remain limited by the high cost and sparse geographic coverage of field-based measurements. Citizen science initiatives offer a largely untapped resource to overcome these limitations, with over 50 million geotagged plant photographs worldwide capturing valuable visual information on plant morphology and physiology. In this study, we introduce PlantTraitNet, a multi-modal, multi-task uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that predictsfour key plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, and nitrogen content) from citizen science photos using weak supervision. By aggregating individual trait predictions across space, we generate global maps of trait distributions. We validate these maps against independent vegetation survey data (sPlotOpen) and benchmark them against leading global trait products. Our results show that PlantTraitNet consistently outperforms existing trait maps across all evaluated traits, demonstrating that citizen science imagery, when integrated with computer vision and geospatial AI, enables not only scalable but also more accurate global trait mapping. This approach offers a powerful new pathway for ecological research and Earth system modeling.

Every second greater than 10^{25} antineutrinos radiate to space from Earth, shining like a faint antineutrino star. Underground antineutrino detectors have revealed the rapidly decaying fission products inside nuclear reactors, verified the long-lived radioactivity inside our planet, and informed sensitive experiments for probing fundamental physics. Mapping the anisotropic antineutrino flux and energy spectrum advance geoscience by defining the amount and distribution of radioactive power within Earth while critically evaluating competing compositional models of the planet. We present the Antineutrino Global Map 2015 (AGM2015), an experimentally informed model of Earth's surface antineutrino flux over the 0 to 11 MeV energy spectrum, along with an assessment of systematic errors. The open source AGM2015 provides fundamental predictions for experiments, assists in strategic detector placement to determine neutrino mass hierarchy, and aids in identifying undeclared nuclear reactors. We use cosmochemically and seismologically informed models of the radiogenic lithosphere/mantle combined with the estimated antineutrino flux, as measured by KamLAND and Borexino, to determine the Earth's total antineutrino luminosity at 3.4^{+2.3}_{-2.2} times 10^{25} nu_e. We find a dominant flux of geo-neutrinos, predict sub-equal crust and mantle contributions, with sim1% of the total flux from man-made nuclear reactors.

We consider the task of predicting Hamiltonian matrices to accelerate electronic structure calculations, which plays an important role in physics, chemistry, and materials science. Motivated by the inherent relationship between the off-diagonal blocks of the Hamiltonian matrix and the SO(2) local frame, we propose a novel and efficient network, called QHNetV2, that achieves global SO(3) equivariance without the costly SO(3) Clebsch-Gordan tensor products. This is achieved by introducing a set of new efficient and powerful SO(2)-equivariant operations and performing all off-diagonal feature updates and message passing within SO(2) local frames, thereby eliminating the need of SO(3) tensor products. Moreover, a continuous SO(2) tensor product is performed within the SO(2) local frame at each node to fuse node features, mimicking the symmetric contraction operation. Extensive experiments on the large QH9 and MD17 datasets demonstrate that our model achieves superior performance across a wide range of molecular structures and trajectories, highlighting its strong generalization capability. The proposed SO(2) operations on SO(2) local frames offer a promising direction for scalable and symmetry-aware learning of electronic structures. Our code will be released as part of the AIRS library https://github.com/divelab/AIRS.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Text-based 2D diffusion models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in image generation and editing. Meanwhile, the 2D diffusion models also exhibit substantial potentials for 3D editing tasks. However, how to achieve consistent edits across multiple viewpoints remains a challenge. While the iterative dataset update method is capable of achieving global consistency, it suffers from slow convergence and over-smoothed textures. We propose SyncNoise, a novel geometry-guided multi-view consistent noise editing approach for high-fidelity 3D scene editing. SyncNoise synchronously edits multiple views with 2D diffusion models while enforcing multi-view noise predictions to be geometrically consistent, which ensures global consistency in both semantic structure and low-frequency appearance. To further enhance local consistency in high-frequency details, we set a group of anchor views and propagate them to their neighboring frames through cross-view reprojection. To improve the reliability of multi-view correspondences, we introduce depth supervision during training to enhance the reconstruction of precise geometries. Our method achieves high-quality 3D editing results respecting the textual instructions, especially in scenes with complex textures, by enhancing geometric consistency at the noise and pixel levels.

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

Accurately predicting road networks from satellite images requires a global understanding of the network topology. We propose to capture such high-level information by introducing a graph-based framework that simulates the addition of sequences of graph edges using a reinforcement learning (RL) approach. In particular, given a partially generated graph associated with a satellite image, an RL agent nominates modifications that maximize a cumulative reward. As opposed to standard supervised techniques that tend to be more restricted to commonly used surrogate losses, these rewards can be based on various complex, potentially non-continuous, metrics of interest. This yields more power and flexibility to encode problem-dependent knowledge. Empirical results on several benchmark datasets demonstrate enhanced performance and increased high-level reasoning about the graph topology when using a tree-based search. We further highlight the superiority of our approach under substantial occlusions by introducing a new synthetic benchmark dataset for this task.

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05^circ grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading 43 years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about 256 million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is 0.25^circtimes0.25^circ, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

The non-convexity of the artificial neural network (ANN) training landscape brings inherent optimization difficulties. While the traditional back-propagation stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm and its variants are effective in certain cases, they can become stuck at spurious local minima and are sensitive to initializations and hyperparameters. Recent work has shown that the training of an ANN with ReLU activations can be reformulated as a convex program, bringing hope to globally optimizing interpretable ANNs. However, naively solving the convex training formulation has an exponential complexity, and even an approximation heuristic requires cubic time. In this work, we characterize the quality of this approximation and develop two efficient algorithms that train ANNs with global convergence guarantees. The first algorithm is based on the alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM). It solves both the exact convex formulation and the approximate counterpart. Linear global convergence is achieved, and the initial several iterations often yield a solution with high prediction accuracy. When solving the approximate formulation, the per-iteration time complexity is quadratic. The second algorithm, based on the "sampled convex programs" theory, is simpler to implement. It solves unconstrained convex formulations and converges to an approximately globally optimal classifier. The non-convexity of the ANN training landscape exacerbates when adversarial training is considered. We apply the robust convex optimization theory to convex training and develop convex formulations that train ANNs robust to adversarial inputs. Our analysis explicitly focuses on one-hidden-layer fully connected ANNs, but can extend to more sophisticated architectures.

We introduce dense vision transformers, an architecture that leverages vision transformers in place of convolutional networks as a backbone for dense prediction tasks. We assemble tokens from various stages of the vision transformer into image-like representations at various resolutions and progressively combine them into full-resolution predictions using a convolutional decoder. The transformer backbone processes representations at a constant and relatively high resolution and has a global receptive field at every stage. These properties allow the dense vision transformer to provide finer-grained and more globally coherent predictions when compared to fully-convolutional networks. Our experiments show that this architecture yields substantial improvements on dense prediction tasks, especially when a large amount of training data is available. For monocular depth estimation, we observe an improvement of up to 28% in relative performance when compared to a state-of-the-art fully-convolutional network. When applied to semantic segmentation, dense vision transformers set a new state of the art on ADE20K with 49.02% mIoU. We further show that the architecture can be fine-tuned on smaller datasets such as NYUv2, KITTI, and Pascal Context where it also sets the new state of the art. Our models are available at https://github.com/intel-isl/DPT.

We propose a novel convolutional architecture, named genCNN, for word sequence prediction. Different from previous work on neural network-based language modeling and generation (e.g., RNN or LSTM), we choose not to greedily summarize the history of words as a fixed length vector. Instead, we use a convolutional neural network to predict the next word with the history of words of variable length. Also different from the existing feedforward networks for language modeling, our model can effectively fuse the local correlation and global correlation in the word sequence, with a convolution-gating strategy specifically designed for the task. We argue that our model can give adequate representation of the history, and therefore can naturally exploit both the short and long range dependencies. Our model is fast, easy to train, and readily parallelized. Our extensive experiments on text generation and n-best re-ranking in machine translation show that genCNN outperforms the state-of-the-arts with big margins.

Methane (CH_4) is the second most powerful greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and plays a crucial role in climate change due to its high global warming potential. Accurately modeling CH_4 fluxes across the globe and at fine temporal scales is essential for understanding its spatial and temporal variability and developing effective mitigation strategies. In this work, we introduce the first-of-its-kind cross-scale global wetland methane benchmark dataset (X-MethaneWet), which synthesizes physics-based model simulation data from TEM-MDM and the real-world observation data from FLUXNET-CH_4. This dataset can offer opportunities for improving global wetland CH_4 modeling and science discovery with new AI algorithms. To set up AI model baselines for methane flux prediction, we evaluate the performance of various sequential deep learning models on X-MethaneWet. Furthermore, we explore four different transfer learning techniques to leverage simulated data from TEM-MDM to improve the generalization of deep learning models on real-world FLUXNET-CH_4 observations. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches, highlighting their potential for advancing methane emission modeling and contributing to the development of more accurate and scalable AI-driven climate models.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

The abundance of intestinal flora is closely related to human diseases, but diseases are not caused by a single gut microbe. Instead, they result from the complex interplay of numerous microbial entities. This intricate and implicit connection among gut microbes poses a significant challenge for disease prediction using abundance information from OTU data. Recently, several methods have shown potential in predicting corresponding diseases. However, these methods fail to learn the inner association among gut microbes from different hosts, leading to unsatisfactory performance. In this paper, we present a novel architecture, Unsupervised Multi-graph Merge Adversarial Network (UMMAN). UMMAN can obtain the embeddings of nodes in the Multi-Graph in an unsupervised scenario, so that it helps learn the multiplex association. Our method is the first to combine Graph Neural Network with the task of intestinal flora disease prediction. We employ complex relation-types to construct the Original-Graph and disrupt the relationships among nodes to generate corresponding Shuffled-Graph. We introduce the Node Feature Global Integration (NFGI) module to represent the global features of the graph. Furthermore, we design a joint loss comprising adversarial loss and hybrid attention loss to ensure that the real graph embedding aligns closely with the Original-Graph and diverges from the Shuffled-Graph. Comprehensive experiments on five classical OTU gut microbiome datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of our method. (We will release our code soon.)

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Image harmonization aims to solve the visual inconsistency problem in composited images by adaptively adjusting the foreground pixels with the background as references. Existing methods employ local color transformation or region matching between foreground and background, which neglects powerful proximity prior and independently distinguishes fore-/back-ground as a whole part for harmonization. As a result, they still show a limited performance across varied foreground objects and scenes. To address this issue, we propose a novel Global-aware Kernel Network (GKNet) to harmonize local regions with comprehensive consideration of long-distance background references. Specifically, GKNet includes two parts, \ie, harmony kernel prediction and harmony kernel modulation branches. The former includes a Long-distance Reference Extractor (LRE) to obtain long-distance context and Kernel Prediction Blocks (KPB) to predict multi-level harmony kernels by fusing global information with local features. To achieve this goal, a novel Selective Correlation Fusion (SCF) module is proposed to better select relevant long-distance background references for local harmonization. The latter employs the predicted kernels to harmonize foreground regions with both local and global awareness. Abundant experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method for image harmonization over state-of-the-art methods, \eg, achieving 39.53dB PSNR that surpasses the best counterpart by +0.78dB uparrow; decreasing fMSE/MSE by 11.5\%downarrow/6.7\%downarrow compared with the SoTA method. Code will be available at https://github.com/XintianShen/GKNet{here}.

Depth estimation from a single image is an important task that can be applied to various fields in computer vision, and has grown rapidly with the development of convolutional neural networks. In this paper, we propose a novel structure and training strategy for monocular depth estimation to further improve the prediction accuracy of the network. We deploy a hierarchical transformer encoder to capture and convey the global context, and design a lightweight yet powerful decoder to generate an estimated depth map while considering local connectivity. By constructing connected paths between multi-scale local features and the global decoding stream with our proposed selective feature fusion module, the network can integrate both representations and recover fine details. In addition, the proposed decoder shows better performance than the previously proposed decoders, with considerably less computational complexity. Furthermore, we improve the depth-specific augmentation method by utilizing an important observation in depth estimation to enhance the model. Our network achieves state-of-the-art performance over the challenging depth dataset NYU Depth V2. Extensive experiments have been conducted to validate and show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, our model shows better generalisation ability and robustness than other comparative models.

Predicting salient regions in natural images requires the detection of objects that are present in a scene. To develop robust representations for this challenging task, high-level visual features at multiple spatial scales must be extracted and augmented with contextual information. However, existing models aimed at explaining human fixation maps do not incorporate such a mechanism explicitly. Here we propose an approach based on a convolutional neural network pre-trained on a large-scale image classification task. The architecture forms an encoder-decoder structure and includes a module with multiple convolutional layers at different dilation rates to capture multi-scale features in parallel. Moreover, we combine the resulting representations with global scene information for accurately predicting visual saliency. Our model achieves competitive and consistent results across multiple evaluation metrics on two public saliency benchmarks and we demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach on five datasets and selected examples. Compared to state of the art approaches, the network is based on a lightweight image classification backbone and hence presents a suitable choice for applications with limited computational resources, such as (virtual) robotic systems, to estimate human fixations across complex natural scenes.

The ionosphere electromagnetic activity is a major factor of the quality of satellite telecommunications, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and other vital space applications. Being able to forecast globally the Total Electron Content (TEC) would enable a better anticipation of potential performance degradations. A few studies have proposed models able to predict the TEC locally, but not worldwide for most of them. Thanks to a large record of past TEC maps publicly available, we propose a method based on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to forecast a sequence of global TEC maps consecutive to an input sequence of TEC maps, without introducing any prior knowledge other than Earth rotation periodicity. By combining several state-of-the-art architectures, the proposed approach is competitive with previous works on TEC forecasting while predicting the TEC globally.

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long-term climate projections with robust skill across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, a particularly important goal for the ocean. Our work builds a skillful global emulator of the ocean component of a state-of-the-art climate model. We emulate key ocean variables, sea surface height, horizontal velocities, temperature, and salinity, across their full depth. We use a modified ConvNeXt UNet architecture trained on multidepth levels of ocean data. We show that the ocean emulator - Samudra - which exhibits no drift relative to the truth, can reproduce the depth structure of ocean variables and their interannual variability. Samudra is stable for centuries and 150 times faster than the original ocean model. Samudra struggles to capture the correct magnitude of the forcing trends and simultaneously remains stable, requiring further work.

Fine-grained recognition involves the classification of images from subordinate macro-categories, and it is challenging due to small inter-class differences. To overcome this, most methods perform discriminative feature selection enabled by a feature extraction backbone followed by a high-level feature refinement step. Recently, many studies have shown the potential behind vision transformers as a backbone for fine-grained recognition, but their usage of its attention mechanism to select discriminative tokens can be computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a novel and computationally inexpensive metric to identify discriminative regions in an image. We compare the similarity between the global representation of an image given by the CLS token, a learnable token used by transformers for classification, and the local representation of individual patches. We select the regions with the highest similarity to obtain crops, which are forwarded through the same transformer encoder. Finally, high-level features of the original and cropped representations are further refined together in order to make more robust predictions. Through extensive experimental evaluation we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, obtaining favorable results in terms of accuracy across a variety of datasets. Furthermore, our method achieves these results at a much lower computational cost compared to the alternatives. Code and checkpoints are available at: https://github.com/arkel23/GLSim.

Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML techniques this hybrid model leverages quantum properties like superposition and entanglement to achieve better accuracy and efficiency classical and QML models are compared based on training time accuracy and scalability results show that QML models offer competitive training times and improved prediction accuracy this research signifies a step towards utilizing quantum technologies for climate change adaptation we emphasize collaboration and continuous innovation to implement this model in real-world flood management ultimately enhancing global resilience against floods

Geographic location is essential for modeling tasks in fields ranging from ecology to epidemiology to the Earth system sciences. However, extracting relevant and meaningful characteristics of a location can be challenging, often entailing expensive data fusion or data distillation from global imagery datasets. To address this challenge, we introduce Satellite Contrastive Location-Image Pretraining (SatCLIP), a global, general-purpose geographic location encoder that learns an implicit representation of locations from openly available satellite imagery. Trained location encoders provide vector embeddings summarizing the characteristics of any given location for convenient usage in diverse downstream tasks. We show that SatCLIP embeddings, pretrained on globally sampled multi-spectral Sentinel-2 satellite data, can be used in various predictive tasks that depend on location information but not necessarily satellite imagery, including temperature prediction, animal recognition in imagery, and population density estimation. Across tasks, SatCLIP embeddings consistently outperform embeddings from existing pretrained location encoders, ranging from models trained on natural images to models trained on semantic context. SatCLIP embeddings also help to improve geographic generalization. This demonstrates the potential of general-purpose location encoders and opens the door to learning meaningful representations of our planet from the vast, varied, and largely untapped modalities of geospatial data.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Neural architecture search (NAS) with an accuracy predictor that predicts the accuracy of candidate architectures has drawn increasing attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Previous works usually employ neural network-based predictors which require more delicate design and are easy to overfit. Considering that most architectures are represented as sequences of discrete symbols which are more like tabular data and preferred by non-neural predictors, in this paper, we study an alternative approach which uses non-neural model for accuracy prediction. Specifically, as decision tree based models can better handle tabular data, we leverage gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) as the predictor for NAS. We demonstrate that the GBDT predictor can achieve comparable (if not better) prediction accuracy than neural network based predictors. Moreover, considering that a compact search space can ease the search process, we propose to prune the search space gradually according to important features derived from GBDT. In this way, NAS can be performed by first pruning the search space and then searching a neural architecture, which is more efficient and effective. Experiments on NASBench-101 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of using GBDT as predictor for NAS: (1) On NASBench-101, it is 22x, 8x, and 6x more sample efficient than random search, regularized evolution, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in finding the global optimum; (2) It achieves 24.2% top-1 error rate on ImageNet, and further achieves 23.4% top-1 error rate on ImageNet when enhanced with search space pruning. Code is provided at https://github.com/renqianluo/GBDT-NAS.

3D occupancy prediction is crucial for autonomous driving perception. Fusion of 4D radar and camera provides a potential solution of robust occupancy prediction on serve weather with least cost. How to achieve effective multi-modal feature fusion and reduce annotation costs remains significant challenges. In this work, we propose MetaOcc, a novel multi-modal occupancy prediction framework that fuses surround-view cameras and 4D radar for comprehensive environmental perception. We first design a height self-attention module for effective 3D feature extraction from sparse radar points. Then, a local-global fusion mechanism is proposed to adaptively capture modality contributions while handling spatio-temporal misalignments. Temporal alignment and fusion module is employed to further aggregate historical feature. Furthermore, we develop a semi-supervised training procedure leveraging open-set segmentor and geometric constraints for pseudo-label generation, enabling robust perception with limited annotations. Extensive experiments on OmniHD-Scenes dataset demonstrate that MetaOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing previous methods by significant margins. Notably, as the first semi-supervised 4D radar and camera fusion-based occupancy prediction approach, MetaOcc maintains 92.5% of the fully-supervised performance while using only 50% of ground truth annotations, establishing a new benchmark for multi-modal 3D occupancy prediction. Code and data are available at https://github.com/LucasYang567/MetaOcc.

Tabular biomedical data poses challenges in machine learning because it is often high-dimensional and typically low-sample-size (HDLSS). Previous research has attempted to address these challenges via local feature selection, but existing approaches often fail to achieve optimal performance due to their limitation in identifying globally important features and their susceptibility to the co-adaptation problem. In this paper, we propose ProtoGate, a prototype-based neural model for feature selection on HDLSS data. ProtoGate first selects instance-wise features via adaptively balancing global and local feature selection. Furthermore, ProtoGate employs a non-parametric prototype-based prediction mechanism to tackle the co-adaptation problem, ensuring the feature selection results and predictions are consistent with underlying data clusters. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate the performance and interpretability of ProtoGate on synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that ProtoGate generally outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy by a clear margin while providing high-fidelity feature selection and explainable predictions. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/ProtoGate.

Imagining the future trajectory is the key for robots to make sound planning and successfully reach their goals. Therefore, text-conditioned video prediction (TVP) is an essential task to facilitate general robot policy learning. To tackle this task and empower robots with the ability to foresee the future, we propose a sample and computation-efficient model, named Seer, by inflating the pretrained text-to-image (T2I) stable diffusion models along the temporal axis. We enhance the U-Net and language conditioning model by incorporating computation-efficient spatial-temporal attention. Furthermore, we introduce a novel Frame Sequential Text Decomposer module that dissects a sentence's global instruction into temporally aligned sub-instructions, ensuring precise integration into each frame of generation. Our framework allows us to effectively leverage the extensive prior knowledge embedded in pretrained T2I models across the frames. With the adaptable-designed architecture, Seer makes it possible to generate high-fidelity, coherent, and instruction-aligned video frames by fine-tuning a few layers on a small amount of data. The experimental results on Something Something V2 (SSv2), Bridgedata and EpicKitchens-100 datasets demonstrate our superior video prediction performance with around 480-GPU hours versus CogVideo with over 12,480-GPU hours: achieving the 31% FVD improvement compared to the current SOTA model on SSv2 and 83.7% average preference in the human evaluation.

Lane detection, the process of identifying lane markings as approximated curves, is widely used for lane departure warning and adaptive cruise control in autonomous vehicles. The popular pipeline that solves it in two steps -- feature extraction plus post-processing, while useful, is too inefficient and flawed in learning the global context and lanes' long and thin structures. To tackle these issues, we propose an end-to-end method that directly outputs parameters of a lane shape model, using a network built with a transformer to learn richer structures and context. The lane shape model is formulated based on road structures and camera pose, providing physical interpretation for parameters of network output. The transformer models non-local interactions with a self-attention mechanism to capture slender structures and global context. The proposed method is validated on the TuSimple benchmark and shows state-of-the-art accuracy with the most lightweight model size and fastest speed. Additionally, our method shows excellent adaptability to a challenging self-collected lane detection dataset, showing its powerful deployment potential in real applications. Codes are available at https://github.com/liuruijin17/LSTR.

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage annually and posing growing threats to infrastructure and human livelihoods. Accurate data on roofing materials is critical for modeling building vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes, yet such data remain unavailable. To address this gap, we introduce RoofNet, the largest and most geographically diverse novel multimodal dataset to date, comprising over 51,500 samples from 184 geographically diverse sites pairing high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) imagery with curated text annotations for global roof material classification. RoofNet includes geographically diverse satellite imagery labeled with 14 key roofing types -- such as asphalt shingles, clay tiles, and metal sheets -- and is designed to enhance the fidelity of global exposure datasets through vision-language modeling (VLM). We sample EO tiles from climatically and architecturally distinct regions to construct a representative dataset. A subset of 6,000 images was annotated in collaboration with domain experts to fine-tune a VLM. We used geographic- and material-aware prompt tuning to enhance class separability. The fine-tuned model was then applied to the remaining EO tiles, with predictions refined through rule-based and human-in-the-loop verification. In addition to material labels, RoofNet provides rich metadata including roof shape, footprint area, solar panel presence, and indicators of mixed roofing materials (e.g., HVAC systems). RoofNet supports scalable, AI-driven risk assessment and serves as a downstream benchmark for evaluating model generalization across regions -- offering actionable insights for insurance underwriting, disaster preparedness, and infrastructure policy planning.

Accurate estimates of Above Ground Biomass (AGB) are essential in addressing two of humanity's biggest challenges, climate change and biodiversity loss. Existing datasets for AGB estimation from satellite imagery are limited. Either they focus on specific, local regions at high resolution, or they offer global coverage at low resolution. There is a need for a machine learning-ready, globally representative, high-resolution benchmark. Our findings indicate significant variability in biomass estimates across different vegetation types, emphasizing the necessity for a dataset that accurately captures global diversity. To address these gaps, we introduce a comprehensive new dataset that is globally distributed, covers a range of vegetation types, and spans several years. This dataset combines AGB reference data from the GEDI mission with data from Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 imagery. Additionally, it includes pre-processed high-level features such as a dense canopy height map, an elevation map, and a land-cover classification map. We also produce a dense, high-resolution (10m) map of AGB predictions for the entire area covered by the dataset. Rigorously tested, our dataset is accompanied by several benchmark models and is publicly available. It can be easily accessed using a single line of code, offering a solid basis for efforts towards global AGB estimation. The GitHub repository github.com/ghjuliasialelli/AGBD serves as a one-stop shop for all code and data.

Global geolocation, which seeks to predict the geographical location of images captured anywhere in the world, is one of the most challenging tasks in the field of computer vision. In this paper, we introduce an innovative interactive global geolocation assistant named GaGA, built upon the flourishing large vision-language models (LVLMs). GaGA uncovers geographical clues within images and combines them with the extensive world knowledge embedded in LVLMs to determine the geolocations while also providing justifications and explanations for the prediction results. We further designed a novel interactive geolocation method that surpasses traditional static inference approaches. It allows users to intervene, correct, or provide clues for the predictions, making the model more flexible and practical. The development of GaGA relies on the newly proposed Multi-modal Global Geolocation (MG-Geo) dataset, a comprehensive collection of 5 million high-quality image-text pairs. GaGA achieves state-of-the-art performance on the GWS15k dataset, improving accuracy by 4.57% at the country level and 2.92% at the city level, setting a new benchmark. These advancements represent a significant leap forward in developing highly accurate, interactive geolocation systems with global applicability.

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

Since its emergence, SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated a rapid and unpredictable evolutionary trajectory, characterized by the continual emergence of immune-evasive variants. This poses persistent challenges to public health and vaccine development. While large-scale generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs) have revolutionized the modeling of sequential data, their direct applications to noisy viral genomic sequences are limited. In this paper, we introduce PETRA(Pretrained Evolutionary TRAnsformer), a novel transformer approach based on evolutionary trajectories derived from phylogenetic trees rather than raw RNA sequences. This method effectively mitigates sequencing noise and captures the hierarchical structure of viral evolution. With a weighted training framework to address substantial geographical and temporal imbalances in global sequence data, PETRA excels in predicting future SARS-CoV-2 mutations, achieving a weighted recall@1 of 9.45% for nucleotide mutations and 17.10\% for spike amino-acid mutations, compared to 0.49% and 6.64% respectively for the best baseline. PETRA also demonstrates its ability to aid in the real-time mutation prediction of major clades like 24F(XEC) and 25A(LP.8.1). The code is open sourced on https://github.com/xz-keg/PETra

A pooling mechanism is essential for mean opinion score (MOS) prediction, facilitating the transformation of variable-length audio features into a concise fixed-size representation that effectively encodes speech quality. Existing pooling methods typically operate at a singular granularity, concentrating either on a comprehensive global perspective or a detailed frame-level analysis, which may overlook complementary perceptual insights. To address this limitation, we introduce the Dual-Resolution Attentive Statistics Pooling (DRASP) framework. DRASP integrates both coarse-grained, global statistical summaries and fine-grained, attentive analyses of perceptually significant segments. This dual-view architecture empowers our model to formulate a more thorough and robust representation, capturing both the overarching structural context and salient local details concurrently. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and strong generalization ability of the proposed framework. It consistently outperforms various baseline methods across diverse datasets (MusicEval and AES-Natural), MOS prediction backbones (including a CLAP-based model and AudioBox-Aesthetics), and different audio generation systems, achieving a relative improvement of 10.39% in system-level Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) over the widely-used average pooling approach.

This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introduces a two-stage approach combining explainable machine learning and factorization models. The first stage employs SHAP Explainer for effective variable selection, identifying key provisions in PTAs, while the second stage utilizes Factorization Machine models to analyze the pairwise interaction effects of these provisions on trade flows. By analyzing comprehensive datasets, the paper demonstrates the efficacy of this approach. The findings not only enhance the predictive accuracy of trade flow models but also offer deeper insights into the complex dynamics of international trade, influenced by specific bilateral trade provisions.

We show how perceptual embeddings of the visual system can be constructed at inference-time with no training data or deep neural network features. Our perceptual embeddings are solutions to a weighted least squares (WLS) problem, defined at the pixel-level, and solved at inference-time, that can capture global and local image characteristics. The distance in embedding space is used to define a perceptual similarity metric which we call LASI: Linear Autoregressive Similarity Index. Experiments on full-reference image quality assessment datasets show LASI performs competitively with learned deep feature based methods like LPIPS (Zhang et al., 2018) and PIM (Bhardwaj et al., 2020), at a similar computational cost to hand-crafted methods such as MS-SSIM (Wang et al., 2003). We found that increasing the dimensionality of the embedding space consistently reduces the WLS loss while increasing performance on perceptual tasks, at the cost of increasing the computational complexity. LASI is fully differentiable, scales cubically with the number of embedding dimensions, and can be parallelized at the pixel-level. A Maximum Differentiation (MAD) competition (Wang & Simoncelli, 2008) between LASI and LPIPS shows that both methods are capable of finding failure points for the other, suggesting these metrics can be combined.

Estimating the geographical range of a species from sparse observations is a challenging and important geospatial prediction problem. Given a set of locations where a species has been observed, the goal is to build a model to predict whether the species is present or absent at any location. This problem has a long history in ecology, but traditional methods struggle to take advantage of emerging large-scale crowdsourced datasets which can include tens of millions of records for hundreds of thousands of species. In this work, we use Spatial Implicit Neural Representations (SINRs) to jointly estimate the geographical range of 47k species simultaneously. We find that our approach scales gracefully, making increasingly better predictions as we increase the number of species and the amount of data per species when training. To make this problem accessible to machine learning researchers, we provide four new benchmarks that measure different aspects of species range estimation and spatial representation learning. Using these benchmarks, we demonstrate that noisy and biased crowdsourced data can be combined with implicit neural representations to approximate expert-developed range maps for many species.

The vision-based perception for autonomous driving has undergone a transformation from the bird-eye-view (BEV) representations to the 3D semantic occupancy. Compared with the BEV planes, the 3D semantic occupancy further provides structural information along the vertical direction. This paper presents OccFormer, a dual-path transformer network to effectively process the 3D volume for semantic occupancy prediction. OccFormer achieves a long-range, dynamic, and efficient encoding of the camera-generated 3D voxel features. It is obtained by decomposing the heavy 3D processing into the local and global transformer pathways along the horizontal plane. For the occupancy decoder, we adapt the vanilla Mask2Former for 3D semantic occupancy by proposing preserve-pooling and class-guided sampling, which notably mitigate the sparsity and class imbalance. Experimental results demonstrate that OccFormer significantly outperforms existing methods for semantic scene completion on SemanticKITTI dataset and for LiDAR semantic segmentation on nuScenes dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/zhangyp15/OccFormer.

Human mobility prediction is a fundamental task essential for various applications in urban planning, location-based services and intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods often ignore activity information crucial for reasoning human preferences and routines, or adopt a simplified representation of the dependencies between time, activities and locations. To address these issues, we present Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network (HGARN) for human mobility prediction. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical graph based on past mobility records and employ a Hierarchical Graph Attention Module to capture complex time-activity-location dependencies. This way, HGARN can learn representations with rich human travel semantics to model user preferences at the global level. We also propose a model-agnostic history-enhanced confidence (MAHEC) label to incorporate each user's individual-level preferences. Finally, we introduce a Temporal Module, which employs recurrent structures to jointly predict users' next activities and their associated locations, with the former used as an auxiliary task to enhance the latter prediction. For model evaluation, we test the performance of HGARN against existing state-of-the-art methods in both the recurring (i.e., returning to a previously visited location) and explorative (i.e., visiting a new location) settings. Overall, HGARN outperforms other baselines significantly in all settings based on two real-world human mobility data benchmarks. These findings confirm the important role that human activities play in determining mobility decisions, illustrating the need to develop activity-aware intelligent transportation systems. Source codes of this study are available at https://github.com/YihongT/HGARN.

To meet the growing mobility needs in intra-city transportation, the concept of urban air mobility (UAM) has been proposed in which vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft are used to provide a ride-hailing service. In UAM, aircraft can operate in designated air spaces known as corridors, that link the aerodromes. A reliable communication network between GBSs and aircraft enables UAM to adequately utilize the airspace and create a fast, efficient, and safe transportation system. In this paper, to characterize the wireless connectivity performance for UAM, a spatial model is proposed. For this setup, the distribution of the distance between an arbitrarily selected GBS and its associated aircraft and the Laplace transform of the interference experienced by the GBS are derived. Using these results, the signal-to-interference ratio (SIR)-based connectivity probability is determined to capture the connectivity performance of the UAM aircraft-to-ground communication network. Then, leveraging these connectivity results, a wireless-enabled asynchronous federated learning (AFL) framework that uses a Fourier neural network is proposed to tackle the challenging problem of turbulence prediction during UAM operations. For this AFL scheme, a staleness-aware global aggregation scheme is introduced to expedite the convergence to the optimal turbulence prediction model used by UAM aircraft. Simulation results validate the theoretical derivations for the UAM wireless connectivity. The results also demonstrate that the proposed AFL framework converges to the optimal turbulence prediction model faster than the synchronous federated learning baselines and a staleness-free AFL approach. Furthermore, the results characterize the performance of wireless connectivity and convergence of the aircraft's turbulence model under different parameter settings, offering useful UAM design guidelines.

Learning-based optical flow estimation has been dominated with the pipeline of cost volume with convolutions for flow regression, which is inherently limited to local correlations and thus is hard to address the long-standing challenge of large displacements. To alleviate this, the state-of-the-art framework RAFT gradually improves its prediction quality by using a large number of iterative refinements, achieving remarkable performance but introducing linearly increasing inference time. To enable both high accuracy and efficiency, we completely revamp the dominant flow regression pipeline by reformulating optical flow as a global matching problem, which identifies the correspondences by directly comparing feature similarities. Specifically, we propose a GMFlow framework, which consists of three main components: a customized Transformer for feature enhancement, a correlation and softmax layer for global feature matching, and a self-attention layer for flow propagation. We further introduce a refinement step that reuses GMFlow at higher feature resolution for residual flow prediction. Our new framework outperforms 31-refinements RAFT on the challenging Sintel benchmark, while using only one refinement and running faster, suggesting a new paradigm for accurate and efficient optical flow estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/haofeixu/gmflow.

Combining satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML) has the potential to address global challenges by remotely estimating socioeconomic and environmental conditions in data-poor regions, yet the resource requirements of SIML limit its accessibility and use. We show that a single encoding of satellite imagery can generalize across diverse prediction tasks (e.g. forest cover, house price, road length). Our method achieves accuracy competitive with deep neural networks at orders of magnitude lower computational cost, scales globally, delivers label super-resolution predictions, and facilitates characterizations of uncertainty. Since image encodings are shared across tasks, they can be centrally computed and distributed to unlimited researchers, who need only fit a linear regression to their own ground truth data in order to achieve state-of-the-art SIML performance.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

Although existing stereo matching models have achieved continuous improvement, they often face issues related to trustworthiness due to the absence of uncertainty estimation. Additionally, effectively leveraging multi-scale and multi-view knowledge of stereo pairs remains unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Evidential Local-global Fusion (ELF) framework for stereo matching, which endows both uncertainty estimation and confidence-aware fusion with trustworthy heads. Instead of predicting the disparity map alone, our model estimates an evidential-based disparity considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. With the normal inverse-Gamma distribution as a bridge, the proposed framework realizes intra evidential fusion of multi-level predictions and inter evidential fusion between cost-volume-based and transformer-based stereo matching. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed framework exploits multi-view information effectively and achieves state-of-the-art overall performance both on accuracy and cross-domain generalization. The codes are available at https://github.com/jimmy19991222/ELFNet.

ImageNet has been arguably the most popular image classification benchmark, but it is also the one with a significant level of label noise. Recent studies have shown that many samples contain multiple classes, despite being assumed to be a single-label benchmark. They have thus proposed to turn ImageNet evaluation into a multi-label task, with exhaustive multi-label annotations per image. However, they have not fixed the training set, presumably because of a formidable annotation cost. We argue that the mismatch between single-label annotations and effectively multi-label images is equally, if not more, problematic in the training setup, where random crops are applied. With the single-label annotations, a random crop of an image may contain an entirely different object from the ground truth, introducing noisy or even incorrect supervision during training. We thus re-label the ImageNet training set with multi-labels. We address the annotation cost barrier by letting a strong image classifier, trained on an extra source of data, generate the multi-labels. We utilize the pixel-wise multi-label predictions before the final pooling layer, in order to exploit the additional location-specific supervision signals. Training on the re-labeled samples results in improved model performances across the board. ResNet-50 attains the top-1 classification accuracy of 78.9% on ImageNet with our localized multi-labels, which can be further boosted to 80.2% with the CutMix regularization. We show that the models trained with localized multi-labels also outperforms the baselines on transfer learning to object detection and instance segmentation tasks, and various robustness benchmarks. The re-labeled ImageNet training set, pre-trained weights, and the source code are available at {https://github.com/naver-ai/relabel_imagenet}.

Recent vision transformers, large-kernel CNNs and MLPs have attained remarkable successes in broad vision tasks thanks to their effective information fusion in the global scope. However, their efficient deployments, especially on mobile devices, still suffer from noteworthy challenges due to the heavy computational costs of self-attention mechanisms, large kernels, or fully connected layers. In this work, we apply conventional convolution theorem to deep learning for addressing this and reveal that adaptive frequency filters can serve as efficient global token mixers. With this insight, we propose Adaptive Frequency Filtering (AFF) token mixer. This neural operator transfers a latent representation to the frequency domain via a Fourier transform and performs semantic-adaptive frequency filtering via an elementwise multiplication, which mathematically equals to a token mixing operation in the original latent space with a dynamic convolution kernel as large as the spatial resolution of this latent representation. We take AFF token mixers as primary neural operators to build a lightweight neural network, dubbed AFFNet. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed AFF token mixer and show that AFFNet achieve superior accuracy and efficiency trade-offs compared to other lightweight network designs on broad visual tasks, including visual recognition and dense prediction tasks.

Although LLMs have demonstrated improved performance by scaling parallel test-time compute, doing so relies on generating reasoning paths that are both diverse and accurate. For challenging problems, the forking tokens that trigger diverse yet correct reasoning modes are typically deep in the sampling tree. Consequently, common strategies to encourage diversity, such as temperature scaling, encounter a worsened trade-off between diversity and accuracy. Motivated by this challenge, we treat parallel reasoning as a set-of-next-token-prediction problem, and incorporate a set-based global loss into Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) using self-supervised bipartite matching between our global forking tokens and unique reasoning traces. We observe that, while naive fine-tuning with multiple reasoning traces collapses these unique reasoning modes, our proposed method, Set Supervised Fine-Tuning (SSFT), preserves these modes and produces emergent global forking tokens. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that our SSFT consistently outperforms SFT under both Pass@1 and Cons@k metrics.

Effective traffic prediction is a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems, enabling precise forecasts of traffic flow, speed, and congestion. While traditional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) have achieved notable success in short-term traffic forecasting, their performance in long-term predictions remains limited. This challenge arises from over-squashing problem, where bottlenecks and limited receptive fields restrict information flow and hinder the modeling of global dependencies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel framework that incorporates virtual nodes, which are additional nodes added to the graph and connected to existing nodes, in order to aggregate information across the entire graph within a single GNN layer. Our proposed model incorporates virtual nodes by constructing a semi-adaptive adjacency matrix. This matrix integrates distance-based and adaptive adjacency matrices, allowing the model to leverage geographical information while also learning task-specific features from data. Experimental results demonstrate that the inclusion of virtual nodes significantly enhances long-term prediction accuracy while also improving layer-wise sensitivity to mitigate the over-squashing problem. Virtual nodes also offer enhanced explainability by focusing on key intersections and high-traffic areas, as shown by the visualization of their adjacency matrix weights on road network heat maps. Our advanced approach enhances the understanding and management of urban traffic systems, making it particularly well-suited for real-world applications.

Open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks including object detection and image segmentation have been advanced by the success of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP). CLIP models, particularly those incorporating vision transformers (ViTs), have exhibited remarkable generalization ability in zero-shot image classification. However, when transferring the vision-language alignment of CLIP from global image representation to local region representation for the open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks, CLIP ViTs suffer from the domain shift from full images to local image regions. In this paper, we embark on an in-depth analysis of the region-language alignment in CLIP models, which is essential for downstream open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks. Subsequently, we propose an approach named CLIPSelf, which adapts the image-level recognition ability of CLIP ViT to local image regions without needing any region-text pairs. CLIPSelf empowers ViTs to distill itself by aligning a region representation extracted from its dense feature map with the image-level representation of the corresponding image crop. With the enhanced CLIP ViTs, we achieve new state-of-the-art performance on open-vocabulary object detection, semantic segmentation, and panoptic segmentation across various benchmarks. Models and code will be available at https://github.com/wusize/CLIPSelf.

Global channel pruning (GCP) aims to remove a subset of channels (filters) across different layers from a deep model without hurting the performance. Previous works focus on either single task model pruning or simply adapting it to multitask scenario, and still face the following problems when handling multitask pruning: 1) Due to the task mismatch, a well-pruned backbone for classification task focuses on preserving filters that can extract category-sensitive information, causing filters that may be useful for other tasks to be pruned during the backbone pruning stage; 2) For multitask predictions, different filters within or between layers are more closely related and interacted than that for single task prediction, making multitask pruning more difficult. Therefore, aiming at multitask model compression, we propose a Performance-Aware Global Channel Pruning (PAGCP) framework. We first theoretically present the objective for achieving superior GCP, by considering the joint saliency of filters from intra- and inter-layers. Then a sequentially greedy pruning strategy is proposed to optimize the objective, where a performance-aware oracle criterion is developed to evaluate sensitivity of filters to each task and preserve the globally most task-related filters. Experiments on several multitask datasets show that the proposed PAGCP can reduce the FLOPs and parameters by over 60% with minor performance drop, and achieves 1.2xsim3.3x acceleration on both cloud and mobile platforms.

Accurate prediction of molecular properties is essential in drug discovery and related fields. However, existing graph neural networks (GNNs) often struggle to simultaneously capture both local and global molecular structures. In this work, we propose a Multi-Level Fusion Graph Neural Network (MLFGNN) that integrates Graph Attention Networks and a novel Graph Transformer to jointly model local and global dependencies. In addition, we incorporate molecular fingerprints as a complementary modality and introduce a mechanism of interaction between attention to adaptively fuse information across representations. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that MLFGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both classification and regression tasks. Interpretability analysis further reveals that the model effectively captures task-relevant chemical patterns, supporting the usefulness of multi-level and multi-modal fusion in molecular representation learning.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

RGB-D salient object detection (SOD), aiming to highlight prominent regions of a given scene by jointly modeling RGB and depth information, is one of the challenging pixel-level prediction tasks. Recently, the dual-attention mechanism has been devoted to this area due to its ability to strengthen the detection process. However, most existing methods directly fuse attentional cross-modality features under a manual-mandatory fusion paradigm without considering the inherent discrepancy between the RGB and depth, which may lead to a reduction in performance. Moreover, the long-range dependencies derived from global and local information make it difficult to leverage a unified efficient fusion strategy. Hence, in this paper, we propose the GL-DMNet, a novel dual mutual learning network with global-local awareness. Specifically, we present a position mutual fusion module and a channel mutual fusion module to exploit the interdependencies among different modalities in spatial and channel dimensions. Besides, we adopt an efficient decoder based on cascade transformer-infused reconstruction to integrate multi-level fusion features jointly. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed GL-DMNet performs better than 24 RGB-D SOD methods, achieving an average improvement of ~3% across four evaluation metrics compared to the second-best model (S3Net). Codes and results are available at https://github.com/kingkung2016/GL-DMNet.

Traffic prediction is a typical spatio-temporal data mining task and has great significance to the public transportation system. Considering the demand for its grand application, we recognize key factors for an ideal spatio-temporal prediction method: efficient, lightweight, and effective. However, the current deep model-based spatio-temporal prediction solutions generally own intricate architectures with cumbersome optimization, which can hardly meet these expectations. To accomplish the above goals, we propose an intuitive and novel framework, MLPST, a pure multi-layer perceptron architecture for traffic prediction. Specifically, we first capture spatial relationships from both local and global receptive fields. Then, temporal dependencies in different intervals are comprehensively considered. Through compact and swift MLP processing, MLPST can well capture the spatial and temporal dependencies while requiring only linear computational complexity, as well as model parameters that are more than an order of magnitude lower than baselines. Extensive experiments validated the superior effectiveness and efficiency of MLPST against advanced baselines, and among models with optimal accuracy, MLPST achieves the best time and space efficiency.

Predicting how a drug-like molecule binds to a specific protein target is a core problem in drug discovery. An extremely fast computational binding method would enable key applications such as fast virtual screening or drug engineering. Existing methods are computationally expensive as they rely on heavy candidate sampling coupled with scoring, ranking, and fine-tuning steps. We challenge this paradigm with EquiBind, an SE(3)-equivariant geometric deep learning model performing direct-shot prediction of both i) the receptor binding location (blind docking) and ii) the ligand's bound pose and orientation. EquiBind achieves significant speed-ups and better quality compared to traditional and recent baselines. Further, we show extra improvements when coupling it with existing fine-tuning techniques at the cost of increased running time. Finally, we propose a novel and fast fine-tuning model that adjusts torsion angles of a ligand's rotatable bonds based on closed-form global minima of the von Mises angular distance to a given input atomic point cloud, avoiding previous expensive differential evolution strategies for energy minimization.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

Chest X-ray (CXR) is the most frequently ordered imaging test, supporting diverse clinical tasks from thoracic disease detection to postoperative monitoring. However, task-specific classification models are limited in scope, require costly labeled data, and lack generalizability to out-of-distribution datasets. To address these challenges, we introduce CheXFound, a self-supervised vision foundation model that learns robust CXR representations and generalizes effectively across a wide range of downstream tasks. We pretrain CheXFound on a curated CXR-1M dataset, comprising over one million unique CXRs from publicly available sources. We propose a Global and Local Representations Integration (GLoRI) module for downstream adaptations, by incorporating disease-specific local features with global image features for enhanced performance in multilabel classification. Our experimental results show that CheXFound outperforms state-of-the-art models in classifying 40 disease findings across different prevalence levels on the CXR-LT 24 dataset and exhibits superior label efficiency on downstream tasks with limited training data. Additionally, CheXFound achieved significant improvements on new tasks with out-of-distribution datasets, including opportunistic cardiovascular disease risk estimation and mortality prediction. These results highlight CheXFound's strong generalization capabilities, enabling diverse adaptations with improved label efficiency. The project source code is publicly available at https://github.com/RPIDIAL/CheXFound.

Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWF's state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO, but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

This paper presents DetailFlow, a coarse-to-fine 1D autoregressive (AR) image generation method that models images through a novel next-detail prediction strategy. By learning a resolution-aware token sequence supervised with progressively degraded images, DetailFlow enables the generation process to start from the global structure and incrementally refine details. This coarse-to-fine 1D token sequence aligns well with the autoregressive inference mechanism, providing a more natural and efficient way for the AR model to generate complex visual content. Our compact 1D AR model achieves high-quality image synthesis with significantly fewer tokens than previous approaches, i.e. VAR/VQGAN. We further propose a parallel inference mechanism with self-correction that accelerates generation speed by approximately 8x while reducing accumulation sampling error inherent in teacher-forcing supervision. On the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, our method achieves 2.96 gFID with 128 tokens, outperforming VAR (3.3 FID) and FlexVAR (3.05 FID), which both require 680 tokens in their AR models. Moreover, due to the significantly reduced token count and parallel inference mechanism, our method runs nearly 2x faster inference speed compared to VAR and FlexVAR. Extensive experimental results demonstrate DetailFlow's superior generation quality and efficiency compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Predicting high-dimensional or extreme multilabels, such as in medical coding, requires both accuracy and interpretability. Existing works often rely on local interpretability methods, failing to provide comprehensive explanations of the overall mechanism behind each label prediction within a multilabel set. We propose a mechanistic interpretability module called DIctionary Label Attention (\method) that disentangles uninterpretable dense embeddings into a sparse embedding space, where each nonzero element (a dictionary feature) represents a globally learned medical concept. Through human evaluations, we show that our sparse embeddings are more human understandable than its dense counterparts by at least 50 percent. Our automated dictionary feature identification pipeline, leveraging large language models (LLMs), uncovers thousands of learned medical concepts by examining and summarizing the highest activating tokens for each dictionary feature. We represent the relationships between dictionary features and medical codes through a sparse interpretable matrix, enhancing the mechanistic and global understanding of the model's predictions while maintaining competitive performance and scalability without extensive human annotation.

Dynamic knowledge graphs (DKGs) are popular structures to express different types of connections between objects over time. They can also serve as an efficient mathematical tool to represent information extracted from complex unstructured data sources, such as text or images. Within financial applications, DKGs could be used to detect trends for strategic thematic investing, based on information obtained from financial news articles. In this work, we explore the properties of large language models (LLMs) as dynamic knowledge graph generators, proposing a novel open-source fine-tuned LLM for this purpose, called the Integrated Contextual Knowledge Graph Generator (ICKG). We use ICKG to produce a novel open-source DKG from a corpus of financial news articles, called FinDKG, and we propose an attention-based GNN architecture for analysing it, called KGTransformer. We test the performance of the proposed model on benchmark datasets and FinDKG, demonstrating superior performance on link prediction tasks. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of the KGTransformer on FinDKG for thematic investing, showing it can outperform existing thematic ETFs.

Accurately predicting gene expression from histopathology images offers a scalable and non-invasive approach to molecular profiling, with significant implications for precision medicine and computational pathology. However, existing methods often underutilize the cross-modal representation alignment between histopathology images and gene expression profiles across multiple representational levels, thereby limiting their prediction performance. To address this, we propose Gene-DML, a unified framework that structures latent space through Dual-pathway Multi-Level discrimination to enhance correspondence between morphological and transcriptional modalities. The multi-scale instance-level discrimination pathway aligns hierarchical histopathology representations extracted at local, neighbor, and global levels with gene expression profiles, capturing scale-aware morphological-transcriptional relationships. In parallel, the cross-level instance-group discrimination pathway enforces structural consistency between individual (image/gene) instances and modality-crossed (gene/image, respectively) groups, strengthening the alignment across modalities. By jointly modelling fine-grained and structural-level discrimination, Gene-DML is able to learn robust cross-modal representations, enhancing both predictive accuracy and generalization across diverse biological contexts. Extensive experiments on public spatial transcriptomics datasets demonstrate that Gene-DML achieves state-of-the-art performance in gene expression prediction. The code and checkpoints will be released soon.

Occupancy prediction aims to estimate the 3D spatial distribution of occupied regions along with their corresponding semantic labels. Existing vision-based methods perform well on daytime benchmarks but struggle in nighttime scenarios due to limited visibility and challenging lighting conditions. To address these challenges, we propose LIAR, a novel framework that learns illumination-affined representations. LIAR first introduces Selective Low-light Image Enhancement (SLLIE), which leverages the illumination priors from daytime scenes to adaptively determine whether a nighttime image is genuinely dark or sufficiently well-lit, enabling more targeted global enhancement. Building on the illumination maps generated by SLLIE, LIAR further incorporates two illumination-aware components: 2D Illumination-guided Sampling (2D-IGS) and 3D Illumination-driven Projection (3D-IDP), to respectively tackle local underexposure and overexposure. Specifically, 2D-IGS modulates feature sampling positions according to illumination maps, assigning larger offsets to darker regions and smaller ones to brighter regions, thereby alleviating feature degradation in underexposed areas. Subsequently, 3D-IDP enhances semantic understanding in overexposed regions by constructing illumination intensity fields and supplying refined residual queries to the BEV context refinement process. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of LIAR under challenging nighttime scenarios. The source code and pretrained models are available https://github.com/yanzq95/LIAR{here}.

Recently, State Space Models (SSMs) with efficient hardware-aware designs, i.e., Mamba, have demonstrated significant potential in computer vision tasks due to their linear computational complexity with respect to token length and their global receptive field. However, Mamba's performance on dense prediction tasks, including human pose estimation and semantic segmentation, has been constrained by three key challenges: insufficient inductive bias, long-range forgetting, and low-resolution output representation. To address these challenges, we introduce the Dynamic Visual State Space (DVSS) block, which utilizes multi-scale convolutional kernels to extract local features across different scales and enhance inductive bias, and employs deformable convolution to mitigate the long-range forgetting problem while enabling adaptive spatial aggregation based on input and task-specific information. By leveraging the multi-resolution parallel design proposed in HRNet, we introduce High-Resolution Visual State Space Model (HRVMamba) based on the DVSS block, which preserves high-resolution representations throughout the entire process while promoting effective multi-scale feature learning. Extensive experiments highlight HRVMamba's impressive performance on dense prediction tasks, achieving competitive results against existing benchmark models without bells and whistles. Code is available at https://github.com/zhanghao5201/HRVMamba.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

Generative machine learning offers new opportunities to better understand complex Earth system dynamics. Recent diffusion-based methods address spectral biases and improve ensemble calibration in weather forecasting compared to deterministic methods, yet have so far proven difficult to scale stably at high resolutions. We introduce AERIS, a 1.3 to 80B parameter pixel-level Swin diffusion transformer to address this gap, and SWiPe, a generalizable technique that composes window parallelism with sequence and pipeline parallelism to shard window-based transformers without added communication cost or increased global batch size. On Aurora (10,080 nodes), AERIS sustains 10.21 ExaFLOPS (mixed precision) and a peak performance of 11.21 ExaFLOPS with 1 times 1 patch size on the 0.25{\deg} ERA5 dataset, achieving 95.5% weak scaling efficiency, and 81.6% strong scaling efficiency. AERIS outperforms the IFS ENS and remains stable on seasonal scales to 90 days, highlighting the potential of billion-parameter diffusion models for weather and climate prediction.

Next location prediction plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Recently, due to the limitation of existing deep learning methods, attempts have been made to apply large language models (LLMs) to zero-shot next location prediction task. However, they directly generate the final output using LLMs without systematic design, which limits the potential of LLMs to uncover complex mobility patterns and underestimates their extensive reserve of global geospatial knowledge. In this paper, we introduce AgentMove, a systematic agentic prediction framework to achieve generalized next location prediction. In AgentMove, we first decompose the mobility prediction task and design specific modules to complete them, including spatial-temporal memory for individual mobility pattern mining, world knowledge generator for modeling the effects of urban structure and collective knowledge extractor for capturing the shared patterns among population. Finally, we combine the results of three modules and conduct a reasoning step to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments utilizing mobility data from two distinct sources reveal that AgentMove surpasses the leading baseline by 3.33% to 8.57% across 8 out of 12 metrics and it shows robust predictions with various LLMs as base and also less geographical bias across cities. Our codes are available via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentMove.

Accurate remote sensing-based crop yield prediction remains a fundamental challenging task due to complex spatial patterns, heterogeneous spectral characteristics, and dynamic agricultural conditions. Existing methods often suffer from limited spatial modeling capacity, weak generalization across crop types and years. To address these challenges, we propose DFYP, a novel Dynamic Fusion framework for crop Yield Prediction, which combines spectral channel attention, edge-adaptive spatial modeling and a learnable fusion mechanism to improve robustness across diverse agricultural scenarios. Specifically, DFYP introduces three key components: (1) a Resolution-aware Channel Attention (RCA) module that enhances spectral representation by adaptively reweighting input channels based on resolution-specific characteristics; (2) an Adaptive Operator Learning Network (AOL-Net) that dynamically selects operators for convolutional kernels to improve edge-sensitive spatial feature extraction under varying crop and temporal conditions; and (3) a dual-branch architecture with a learnable fusion mechanism, which jointly models local spatial details and global contextual information to support cross-resolution and cross-crop generalization. Extensive experiments on multi-year datasets MODIS and multi-crop dataset Sentinel-2 demonstrate that DFYP consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art baselines in RMSE, MAE, and R2 across different spatial resolutions, crop types, and time periods, showcasing its effectiveness and robustness for real-world agricultural monitoring.

Reconstructing 3D human shape and pose from monocular images is challenging despite the promising results achieved by the most recent learning-based methods. The commonly occurred misalignment comes from the facts that the mapping from images to the model space is highly non-linear and the rotation-based pose representation of body models is prone to result in the drift of joint positions. In this work, we investigate learning 3D human shape and pose from dense correspondences of body parts and propose a Decompose-and-aggregate Network (DaNet) to address these issues. DaNet adopts the dense correspondence maps, which densely build a bridge between 2D pixels and 3D vertices, as intermediate representations to facilitate the learning of 2D-to-3D mapping. The prediction modules of DaNet are decomposed into one global stream and multiple local streams to enable global and fine-grained perceptions for the shape and pose predictions, respectively. Messages from local streams are further aggregated to enhance the robust prediction of the rotation-based poses, where a position-aided rotation feature refinement strategy is proposed to exploit spatial relationships between body joints. Moreover, a Part-based Dropout (PartDrop) strategy is introduced to drop out dense information from intermediate representations during training, encouraging the network to focus on more complementary body parts as well as neighboring position features. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated on both indoor and real-world datasets including Human3.6M, UP3D, COCO, and 3DPW, showing that our method could significantly improve the reconstruction performance in comparison with previous state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/dense2mesh .

Image-based artistic rendering can synthesize a variety of expressive styles using algorithmic image filtering. In contrast to deep learning-based methods, these heuristics-based filtering techniques can operate on high-resolution images, are interpretable, and can be parameterized according to various design aspects. However, adapting or extending these techniques to produce new styles is often a tedious and error-prone task that requires expert knowledge. We propose a new paradigm to alleviate this problem: implementing algorithmic image filtering techniques as differentiable operations that can learn parametrizations aligned to certain reference styles. To this end, we present WISE, an example-based image-processing system that can handle a multitude of stylization techniques, such as watercolor, oil or cartoon stylization, within a common framework. By training parameter prediction networks for global and local filter parameterizations, we can simultaneously adapt effects to reference styles and image content, e.g., to enhance facial features. Our method can be optimized in a style-transfer framework or learned in a generative-adversarial setting for image-to-image translation. We demonstrate that jointly training an XDoG filter and a CNN for postprocessing can achieve comparable results to a state-of-the-art GAN-based method.

Multi-person pose estimation is fundamental to many computer vision tasks and has made significant progress in recent years. However, few previous methods explored the problem of pose estimation in crowded scenes while it remains challenging and inevitable in many scenarios. Moreover, current benchmarks cannot provide an appropriate evaluation for such cases. In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient method to tackle the problem of pose estimation in the crowd and a new dataset to better evaluate algorithms. Our model consists of two key components: joint-candidate single person pose estimation (SPPE) and global maximum joints association. With multi-peak prediction for each joint and global association using graph model, our method is robust to inevitable interference in crowded scenes and very efficient in inference. The proposed method surpasses the state-of-the-art methods on CrowdPose dataset by 5.2 mAP and results on MSCOCO dataset demonstrate the generalization ability of our method. Source code and dataset will be made publicly available.

Learning an effective outfit-level representation is critical for predicting the compatibility of items in an outfit, and retrieving complementary items for a partial outfit. We present a framework, OutfitTransformer, that uses the proposed task-specific tokens and leverages the self-attention mechanism to learn effective outfit-level representations encoding the compatibility relationships between all items in the entire outfit for addressing both compatibility prediction and complementary item retrieval tasks. For compatibility prediction, we design an outfit token to capture a global outfit representation and train the framework using a classification loss. For complementary item retrieval, we design a target item token that additionally takes the target item specification (in the form of a category or text description) into consideration. We train our framework using a proposed set-wise outfit ranking loss to generate a target item embedding given an outfit, and a target item specification as inputs. The generated target item embedding is then used to retrieve compatible items that match the rest of the outfit. Additionally, we adopt a pre-training approach and a curriculum learning strategy to improve retrieval performance. Since our framework learns at an outfit-level, it allows us to learn a single embedding capturing higher-order relations among multiple items in the outfit more effectively than pairwise methods. Experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on compatibility prediction, fill-in-the-blank, and complementary item retrieval tasks. We further validate the quality of our retrieval results with a user study.

Proteins are essential to life's processes, underpinning evolution and diversity. Advances in sequencing technology have revealed millions of proteins, underscoring the need for sophisticated pre-trained protein models for biological analysis and AI development. Facebook's ESM2, the most advanced protein language model to date, leverages a masked prediction task for unsupervised learning, crafting amino acid representations with notable biochemical accuracy. Yet, it lacks in delivering functional protein insights, signaling an opportunity for enhancing representation quality.Our study addresses this gap by incorporating protein family classification into ESM2's training.This approach, augmented with Community Propagation-Based Clustering Algorithm, improves global protein representations, while a contextual prediction task fine-tunes local amino acid accuracy. Significantly, our model achieved state-of-the-art results in several downstream experiments, demonstrating the power of combining global and local methodologies to substantially boost protein representation quality.

Attention-based neural networks such as transformers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to exhibit in-context learning (ICL): Given a short prompt sequence of tokens from an unseen task, they can formulate relevant per-token and next-token predictions without any parameter updates. By embedding a sequence of labeled training data and unlabeled test data as a prompt, this allows for transformers to behave like supervised learning algorithms. Indeed, recent work has shown that when training transformer architectures over random instances of linear regression problems, these models' predictions mimic those of ordinary least squares. Towards understanding the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, we investigate the dynamics of ICL in transformers with a single linear self-attention layer trained by gradient flow on linear regression tasks. We show that despite non-convexity, gradient flow with a suitable random initialization finds a global minimum of the objective function. At this global minimum, when given a test prompt of labeled examples from a new prediction task, the transformer achieves prediction error competitive with the best linear predictor over the test prompt distribution. We additionally characterize the robustness of the trained transformer to a variety of distribution shifts and show that although a number of shifts are tolerated, shifts in the covariate distribution of the prompts are not. Motivated by this, we consider a generalized ICL setting where the covariate distributions can vary across prompts. We show that although gradient flow succeeds at finding a global minimum in this setting, the trained transformer is still brittle under mild covariate shifts. We complement this finding with experiments on large, nonlinear transformer architectures which we show are more robust under covariate shifts.