new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

Daily Papers

byAK and the research community

Dec 12

Pseudo-Simulation for Autonomous Driving

Existing evaluation paradigms for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) face critical limitations. Real-world evaluation is often challenging due to safety concerns and a lack of reproducibility, whereas closed-loop simulation can face insufficient realism or high computational costs. Open-loop evaluation, while being efficient and data-driven, relies on metrics that generally overlook compounding errors. In this paper, we propose pseudo-simulation, a novel paradigm that addresses these limitations. Pseudo-simulation operates on real datasets, similar to open-loop evaluation, but augments them with synthetic observations generated prior to evaluation using 3D Gaussian Splatting. Our key idea is to approximate potential future states the AV might encounter by generating a diverse set of observations that vary in position, heading, and speed. Our method then assigns a higher importance to synthetic observations that best match the AV's likely behavior using a novel proximity-based weighting scheme. This enables evaluating error recovery and the mitigation of causal confusion, as in closed-loop benchmarks, without requiring sequential interactive simulation. We show that pseudo-simulation is better correlated with closed-loop simulations (R^2=0.8) than the best existing open-loop approach (R^2=0.7). We also establish a public leaderboard for the community to benchmark new methodologies with pseudo-simulation. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

  • 14 authors
·
Jun 4

Bench2Drive: Towards Multi-Ability Benchmarking of Closed-Loop End-To-End Autonomous Driving

In an era marked by the rapid scaling of foundation models, autonomous driving technologies are approaching a transformative threshold where end-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) emerges due to its potential of scaling up in the data-driven manner. However, existing E2E-AD methods are mostly evaluated under the open-loop log-replay manner with L2 errors and collision rate as metrics (e.g., in nuScenes), which could not fully reflect the driving performance of algorithms as recently acknowledged in the community. For those E2E-AD methods evaluated under the closed-loop protocol, they are tested in fixed routes (e.g., Town05Long and Longest6 in CARLA) with the driving score as metrics, which is known for high variance due to the unsmoothed metric function and large randomness in the long route. Besides, these methods usually collect their own data for training, which makes algorithm-level fair comparison infeasible. To fulfill the paramount need of comprehensive, realistic, and fair testing environments for Full Self-Driving (FSD), we present Bench2Drive, the first benchmark for evaluating E2E-AD systems' multiple abilities in a closed-loop manner. Bench2Drive's official training data consists of 2 million fully annotated frames, collected from 13638 short clips uniformly distributed under 44 interactive scenarios (cut-in, overtaking, detour, etc), 23 weathers (sunny, foggy, rainy, etc), and 12 towns (urban, village, university, etc) in CARLA v2. Its evaluation protocol requires E2E-AD models to pass 44 interactive scenarios under different locations and weathers which sums up to 220 routes and thus provides a comprehensive and disentangled assessment about their driving capability under different situations. We implement state-of-the-art E2E-AD models and evaluate them in Bench2Drive, providing insights regarding current status and future directions.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 6, 2024

Dolphin: Closed-loop Open-ended Auto-research through Thinking, Practice, and Feedback

The scientific research paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation owing to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent works demonstrate that various AI-assisted research methods can largely improve research efficiency by improving data analysis, accelerating computation, and fostering novel idea generation. To further move towards the ultimate goal (i.e., automatic scientific research), in this paper, we propose Dolphin, the first closed-loop open-ended auto-research framework to further build the entire process of human scientific research. Dolphin can generate research ideas, perform experiments, and get feedback from experimental results to generate higher-quality ideas. More specifically, Dolphin first generates novel ideas based on relevant papers which are ranked by the topic and task attributes. Then, the codes are automatically generated and debugged with the exception-traceback-guided local code structure. Finally, Dolphin automatically analyzes the results of each idea and feeds the results back to the next round of idea generation. Experiments are conducted on the benchmark datasets of different topics and results show that Dolphin can generate novel ideas continuously and complete the experiment in a loop. We highlight that Dolphin can automatically propose methods that are comparable to the state-of-the-art in some tasks such as 2D image classification and 3D point classification.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 7 3

FreeAskWorld: An Interactive and Closed-Loop Simulator for Human-Centric Embodied AI

As embodied intelligence emerges as a core frontier in artificial intelligence research, simulation platforms must evolve beyond low-level physical interactions to capture complex, human-centered social behaviors. We introduce FreeAskWorld, an interactive simulation framework that integrates large language models (LLMs) for high-level behavior planning and semantically grounded interaction, informed by theories of intention and social cognition. Our framework supports scalable, realistic human-agent simulations and includes a modular data generation pipeline tailored for diverse embodied tasks.To validate the framework, we extend the classic Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) task into a interaction enriched Direction Inquiry setting, wherein agents can actively seek and interpret navigational guidance. We present and publicly release FreeAskWorld, a large-scale benchmark dataset comprising reconstructed environments, six diverse task types, 16 core object categories, 63,429 annotated sample frames, and more than 17 hours of interaction data to support training and evaluation of embodied AI systems. We benchmark VLN models, and human participants under both open-loop and closed-loop settings. Experimental results demonstrate that models fine-tuned on FreeAskWorld outperform their original counterparts, achieving enhanced semantic understanding and interaction competency. These findings underscore the efficacy of socially grounded simulation frameworks in advancing embodied AI systems toward sophisticated high-level planning and more naturalistic human-agent interaction. Importantly, our work underscores that interaction itself serves as an additional information modality.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 17 2

Agents4PLC: Automating Closed-loop PLC Code Generation and Verification in Industrial Control Systems using LLM-based Agents

In industrial control systems, the generation and verification of Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) code are critical for ensuring operational efficiency and safety. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have made strides in automated code generation, they often fall short in providing correctness guarantees and specialized support for PLC programming. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Agents4PLC, a novel framework that not only automates PLC code generation but also includes code-level verification through an LLM-based multi-agent system. We first establish a comprehensive benchmark for verifiable PLC code generation area, transitioning from natural language requirements to human-written-verified formal specifications and reference PLC code. We further enhance our `agents' specifically for industrial control systems by incorporating Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), advanced prompt engineering techniques, and Chain-of-Thought strategies. Evaluation against the benchmark demonstrates that Agents4PLC significantly outperforms previous methods, achieving superior results across a series of increasingly rigorous metrics. This research not only addresses the critical challenges in PLC programming but also highlights the potential of our framework to generate verifiable code applicable to real-world industrial applications.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 18, 2024

LMDrive: Closed-Loop End-to-End Driving with Large Language Models

Despite significant recent progress in the field of autonomous driving, modern methods still struggle and can incur serious accidents when encountering long-tail unforeseen events and challenging urban scenarios. On the one hand, large language models (LLM) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities that approach "Artificial General Intelligence". On the other hand, previous autonomous driving methods tend to rely on limited-format inputs (e.g. sensor data and navigation waypoints), restricting the vehicle's ability to understand language information and interact with humans. To this end, this paper introduces LMDrive, a novel language-guided, end-to-end, closed-loop autonomous driving framework. LMDrive uniquely processes and integrates multi-modal sensor data with natural language instructions, enabling interaction with humans and navigation software in realistic instructional settings. To facilitate further research in language-based closed-loop autonomous driving, we also publicly release the corresponding dataset which includes approximately 64K instruction-following data clips, and the LangAuto benchmark that tests the system's ability to handle complex instructions and challenging driving scenarios. Extensive closed-loop experiments are conducted to demonstrate LMDrive's effectiveness. To the best of our knowledge, we're the very first work to leverage LLMs for closed-loop end-to-end autonomous driving. Codes can be found at https://github.com/opendilab/LMDrive

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 12, 2023

Middo: Model-Informed Dynamic Data Optimization for Enhanced LLM Fine-Tuning via Closed-Loop Learning

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) Large Language Models (LLM) fundamentally rely on high-quality training data. While data selection and data synthesis are two common strategies to improve data quality, existing approaches often face limitations in static dataset curation that fail to adapt to evolving model capabilities. In this paper, we introduce Middo, a self-evolving Model-informed dynamic data optimization framework that uses model-aware data selection and context-preserving data refinement. Unlike conventional one-off filtering/synthesis methods, our framework establishes a closed-loop optimization system: (1) A self-referential diagnostic module proactively identifies suboptimal samples through tri-axial model signals - loss patterns (complexity), embedding cluster dynamics (diversity), and self-alignment scores (quality); (2) An adaptive optimization engine then transforms suboptimal samples into pedagogically valuable training points while preserving semantic integrity; (3) This optimization process continuously evolves with model capability through dynamic learning principles. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our \method consistently enhances the quality of seed data and boosts LLM's performance with improving accuracy by 7.15% on average while maintaining the original dataset scale. This work establishes a new paradigm for sustainable LLM training through dynamic human-AI co-evolution of data and models. Our datasets, models, and code are coming soon.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 29

PlanAgent: A Multi-modal Large Language Agent for Closed-loop Vehicle Motion Planning

Vehicle motion planning is an essential component of autonomous driving technology. Current rule-based vehicle motion planning methods perform satisfactorily in common scenarios but struggle to generalize to long-tailed situations. Meanwhile, learning-based methods have yet to achieve superior performance over rule-based approaches in large-scale closed-loop scenarios. To address these issues, we propose PlanAgent, the first mid-to-mid planning system based on a Multi-modal Large Language Model (MLLM). MLLM is used as a cognitive agent to introduce human-like knowledge, interpretability, and common-sense reasoning into the closed-loop planning. Specifically, PlanAgent leverages the power of MLLM through three core modules. First, an Environment Transformation module constructs a Bird's Eye View (BEV) map and a lane-graph-based textual description from the environment as inputs. Second, a Reasoning Engine module introduces a hierarchical chain-of-thought from scene understanding to lateral and longitudinal motion instructions, culminating in planner code generation. Last, a Reflection module is integrated to simulate and evaluate the generated planner for reducing MLLM's uncertainty. PlanAgent is endowed with the common-sense reasoning and generalization capability of MLLM, which empowers it to effectively tackle both common and complex long-tailed scenarios. Our proposed PlanAgent is evaluated on the large-scale and challenging nuPlan benchmarks. A comprehensive set of experiments convincingly demonstrates that PlanAgent outperforms the existing state-of-the-art in the closed-loop motion planning task. Codes will be soon released.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 3, 2024

HUGSIM: A Real-Time, Photo-Realistic and Closed-Loop Simulator for Autonomous Driving

In the past few decades, autonomous driving algorithms have made significant progress in perception, planning, and control. However, evaluating individual components does not fully reflect the performance of entire systems, highlighting the need for more holistic assessment methods. This motivates the development of HUGSIM, a closed-loop, photo-realistic, and real-time simulator for evaluating autonomous driving algorithms. We achieve this by lifting captured 2D RGB images into the 3D space via 3D Gaussian Splatting, improving the rendering quality for closed-loop scenarios, and building the closed-loop environment. In terms of rendering, We tackle challenges of novel view synthesis in closed-loop scenarios, including viewpoint extrapolation and 360-degree vehicle rendering. Beyond novel view synthesis, HUGSIM further enables the full closed simulation loop, dynamically updating the ego and actor states and observations based on control commands. Moreover, HUGSIM offers a comprehensive benchmark across more than 70 sequences from KITTI-360, Waymo, nuScenes, and PandaSet, along with over 400 varying scenarios, providing a fair and realistic evaluation platform for existing autonomous driving algorithms. HUGSIM not only serves as an intuitive evaluation benchmark but also unlocks the potential for fine-tuning autonomous driving algorithms in a photorealistic closed-loop setting.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 2, 2024 2

NAVSIM: Data-Driven Non-Reactive Autonomous Vehicle Simulation and Benchmarking

Benchmarking vision-based driving policies is challenging. On one hand, open-loop evaluation with real data is easy, but these results do not reflect closed-loop performance. On the other, closed-loop evaluation is possible in simulation, but is hard to scale due to its significant computational demands. Further, the simulators available today exhibit a large domain gap to real data. This has resulted in an inability to draw clear conclusions from the rapidly growing body of research on end-to-end autonomous driving. In this paper, we present NAVSIM, a middle ground between these evaluation paradigms, where we use large datasets in combination with a non-reactive simulator to enable large-scale real-world benchmarking. Specifically, we gather simulation-based metrics, such as progress and time to collision, by unrolling bird's eye view abstractions of the test scenes for a short simulation horizon. Our simulation is non-reactive, i.e., the evaluated policy and environment do not influence each other. As we demonstrate empirically, this decoupling allows open-loop metric computation while being better aligned with closed-loop evaluations than traditional displacement errors. NAVSIM enabled a new competition held at CVPR 2024, where 143 teams submitted 463 entries, resulting in several new insights. On a large set of challenging scenarios, we observe that simple methods with moderate compute requirements such as TransFuser can match recent large-scale end-to-end driving architectures such as UniAD. Our modular framework can potentially be extended with new datasets, data curation strategies, and metrics, and will be continually maintained to host future challenges. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

  • 12 authors
·
Jun 21, 2024 1

LoHoRavens: A Long-Horizon Language-Conditioned Benchmark for Robotic Tabletop Manipulation

The convergence of embodied agents and large language models (LLMs) has brought significant advancements to embodied instruction following. Particularly, the strong reasoning capabilities of LLMs make it possible for robots to perform long-horizon tasks without expensive annotated demonstrations. However, public benchmarks for testing the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of language-conditioned robots in various scenarios are still missing. To fill this gap, this work focuses on the tabletop manipulation task and releases a simulation benchmark, LoHoRavens, which covers various long-horizon reasoning aspects spanning color, size, space, arithmetics and reference. Furthermore, there is a key modality bridging problem for long-horizon manipulation tasks with LLMs: how to incorporate the observation feedback during robot execution for the LLM's closed-loop planning, which is however less studied by prior work. We investigate two methods of bridging the modality gap: caption generation and learnable interface for incorporating explicit and implicit observation feedback to the LLM, respectively. These methods serve as the two baselines for our proposed benchmark. Experiments show that both methods struggle to solve some tasks, indicating long-horizon manipulation tasks are still challenging for current popular models. We expect the proposed public benchmark and baselines can help the community develop better models for long-horizon tabletop manipulation tasks.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 18, 2023

Towards Diverse Behaviors: A Benchmark for Imitation Learning with Human Demonstrations

Imitation learning with human data has demonstrated remarkable success in teaching robots in a wide range of skills. However, the inherent diversity in human behavior leads to the emergence of multi-modal data distributions, thereby presenting a formidable challenge for existing imitation learning algorithms. Quantifying a model's capacity to capture and replicate this diversity effectively is still an open problem. In this work, we introduce simulation benchmark environments and the corresponding Datasets with Diverse human Demonstrations for Imitation Learning (D3IL), designed explicitly to evaluate a model's ability to learn multi-modal behavior. Our environments are designed to involve multiple sub-tasks that need to be solved, consider manipulation of multiple objects which increases the diversity of the behavior and can only be solved by policies that rely on closed loop sensory feedback. Other available datasets are missing at least one of these challenging properties. To address the challenge of diversity quantification, we introduce tractable metrics that provide valuable insights into a model's ability to acquire and reproduce diverse behaviors. These metrics offer a practical means to assess the robustness and versatility of imitation learning algorithms. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough evaluation of state-of-the-art methods on the proposed task suite. This evaluation serves as a benchmark for assessing their capability to learn diverse behaviors. Our findings shed light on the effectiveness of these methods in tackling the intricate problem of capturing and generalizing multi-modal human behaviors, offering a valuable reference for the design of future imitation learning algorithms.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 22, 2024

RealCritic: Towards Effectiveness-Driven Evaluation of Language Model Critiques

Critiques are important for enhancing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling both self-improvement and constructive feedback for others by identifying flaws and suggesting improvements. However, evaluating the critique capabilities of LLMs presents a significant challenge due to the open-ended nature of the task. In this work, we introduce a new benchmark designed to assess the critique capabilities of LLMs. Unlike existing benchmarks, which typically function in an open-loop fashion, our approach employs a closed-loop methodology that evaluates the quality of corrections generated from critiques. Moreover, the benchmark incorporates features such as self-critique, cross-critique, and iterative critique, which are crucial for distinguishing the abilities of advanced reasoning models from more classical ones. We implement this benchmark using eight challenging reasoning tasks. We have several interesting findings. First, despite demonstrating comparable performance in direct chain-of-thought generation, classical LLMs significantly lag behind the advanced reasoning-based model o1-mini across all critique scenarios. Second, in self-critique and iterative critique settings, classical LLMs may even underperform relative to their baseline capabilities. We hope that this benchmark will serve as a valuable resource to guide future advancements. The code and data are available at https://github.com/tangzhy/RealCritic.

  • 11 authors
·
Jan 24 2

RAP: 3D Rasterization Augmented End-to-End Planning

Imitation learning for end-to-end driving trains policies only on expert demonstrations. Once deployed in a closed loop, such policies lack recovery data: small mistakes cannot be corrected and quickly compound into failures. A promising direction is to generate alternative viewpoints and trajectories beyond the logged path. Prior work explores photorealistic digital twins via neural rendering or game engines, but these methods are prohibitively slow and costly, and thus mainly used for evaluation. In this work, we argue that photorealism is unnecessary for training end-to-end planners. What matters is semantic fidelity and scalability: driving depends on geometry and dynamics, not textures or lighting. Motivated by this, we propose 3D Rasterization, which replaces costly rendering with lightweight rasterization of annotated primitives, enabling augmentations such as counterfactual recovery maneuvers and cross-agent view synthesis. To transfer these synthetic views effectively to real-world deployment, we introduce a Raster-to-Real feature-space alignment that bridges the sim-to-real gap. Together, these components form Rasterization Augmented Planning (RAP), a scalable data augmentation pipeline for planning. RAP achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop robustness and long-tail generalization, ranking first on four major benchmarks: NAVSIM v1/v2, Waymo Open Dataset Vision-based E2E Driving, and Bench2Drive. Our results show that lightweight rasterization with feature alignment suffices to scale E2E training, offering a practical alternative to photorealistic rendering. Project page: https://alan-lanfeng.github.io/RAP/.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 5

Towards Collaborative Autonomous Driving: Simulation Platform and End-to-End System

Vehicle-to-everything-aided autonomous driving (V2X-AD) has a huge potential to provide a safer driving solution. Despite extensive researches in transportation and communication to support V2X-AD, the actual utilization of these infrastructures and communication resources in enhancing driving performances remains largely unexplored. This highlights the necessity of collaborative autonomous driving: a machine learning approach that optimizes the information sharing strategy to improve the driving performance of each vehicle. This effort necessitates two key foundations: a platform capable of generating data to facilitate the training and testing of V2X-AD, and a comprehensive system that integrates full driving-related functionalities with mechanisms for information sharing. From the platform perspective, we present V2Xverse, a comprehensive simulation platform for collaborative autonomous driving. This platform provides a complete pipeline for collaborative driving. From the system perspective, we introduce CoDriving, a novel end-to-end collaborative driving system that properly integrates V2X communication over the entire autonomous pipeline, promoting driving with shared perceptual information. The core idea is a novel driving-oriented communication strategy. Leveraging this strategy, CoDriving improves driving performance while optimizing communication efficiency. We make comprehensive benchmarks with V2Xverse, analyzing both modular performance and closed-loop driving performance. Experimental results show that CoDriving: i) significantly improves the driving score by 62.49% and drastically reduces the pedestrian collision rate by 53.50% compared to the SOTA end-to-end driving method, and ii) achieves sustaining driving performance superiority over dynamic constraint communication conditions.

  • 11 authors
·
Apr 15, 2024

AutoVLA: A Vision-Language-Action Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Adaptive Reasoning and Reinforcement Fine-Tuning

Recent advancements in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown promise for end-to-end autonomous driving by leveraging world knowledge and reasoning capabilities. However, current VLA models often struggle with physically infeasible action outputs, complex model structures, or unnecessarily long reasoning. In this paper, we propose AutoVLA, a novel VLA model that unifies reasoning and action generation within a single autoregressive generation model for end-to-end autonomous driving. AutoVLA performs semantic reasoning and trajectory planning directly from raw visual inputs and language instructions. We tokenize continuous trajectories into discrete, feasible actions, enabling direct integration into the language model. For training, we employ supervised fine-tuning to equip the model with dual thinking modes: fast thinking (trajectory-only) and slow thinking (enhanced with chain-of-thought reasoning). To further enhance planning performance and efficiency, we introduce a reinforcement fine-tuning method based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), reducing unnecessary reasoning in straightforward scenarios. Extensive experiments across real-world and simulated datasets and benchmarks, including nuPlan, nuScenes, Waymo, and CARLA, demonstrate the competitive performance of AutoVLA in both open-loop and closed-loop settings. Qualitative results showcase the adaptive reasoning and accurate planning capabilities of AutoVLA in diverse scenarios.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 16

Breaking Imitation Bottlenecks: Reinforced Diffusion Powers Diverse Trajectory Generation

Most end-to-end autonomous driving methods rely on imitation learning from single expert demonstrations, often leading to conservative and homogeneous behaviors that limit generalization in complex real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose DIVER, an end-to-end driving framework that integrates reinforcement learning with diffusion-based generation to produce diverse and feasible trajectories. At the core of DIVER lies a reinforced diffusion-based generation mechanism. First, the model conditions on map elements and surrounding agents to generate multiple reference trajectories from a single ground-truth trajectory, alleviating the limitations of imitation learning that arise from relying solely on single expert demonstrations. Second, reinforcement learning is employed to guide the diffusion process, where reward-based supervision enforces safety and diversity constraints on the generated trajectories, thereby enhancing their practicality and generalization capability. Furthermore, to address the limitations of L2-based open-loop metrics in capturing trajectory diversity, we propose a novel Diversity metric to evaluate the diversity of multi-mode predictions.Extensive experiments on the closed-loop NAVSIM and Bench2Drive benchmarks, as well as the open-loop nuScenes dataset, demonstrate that DIVER significantly improves trajectory diversity, effectively addressing the mode collapse problem inherent in imitation learning.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 5

InstructVLA: Vision-Language-Action Instruction Tuning from Understanding to Manipulation

To operate effectively in the real world, robots must integrate multimodal reasoning with precise action generation. However, existing vision-language-action (VLA) models often sacrifice one for the other, narrow their abilities to task-specific manipulation data, and suffer catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained vision-language capabilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce InstructVLA, an end-to-end VLA model that preserves the flexible reasoning of large vision-language models (VLMs) while delivering leading manipulation performance. InstructVLA introduces a novel training paradigm, Vision-Language-Action Instruction Tuning (VLA-IT), which employs multimodal training with mixture-of-experts adaptation to jointly optimize textual reasoning and action generation on both standard VLM corpora and a curated 650K-sample VLA-IT dataset. On in-domain SimplerEnv tasks, InstructVLA achieves 30.5% improvement over SpatialVLA. To evaluate generalization, we introduce SimplerEnv-Instruct, an 80-task benchmark requiring closed-loop control and high-level instruction understanding, where it outperforms a fine-tuned OpenVLA by 92% and an action expert aided by GPT-4o by 29%. Additionally, InstructVLA surpasses baseline VLMs on multimodal tasks and exhibits inference-time scaling by leveraging textual reasoning to boost manipulation performance in both simulated and real-world settings. These results demonstrate InstructVLA's potential for bridging intuitive and steerable human-robot interaction with efficient policy learning.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 23 1

A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 15