Daily Papers

The relationships between workload and fatigue or sleepiness are investigated through the analysis of rosters and responses to questionnaires from Brazilian aircrews, taken from Fadig\^ometro database. The approach includes temporal markers - coinciding with Samn-Perelli (SP) and Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) responses - where SAFTE-FAST model outcomes are calculated. The model results follow the increase of fatigue and sleepiness perceptions during the dawn (0h00 to 05h59), but underestimate the self-rated scores during the evening (18h00 to 23h59). On the other hand, the KSS scores fit the relative risk of pilot errors, representing a reasonable proxy for risk assessment. Linear relationships obtained between workload metrics, computed within 168-hours prior to the responses, and self-rated SP and KSS scores provide a consistent method to estimate accumulated fatigue and sleepiness. Considering 7149 rosters of 2023, the duty time (DT), the number of flight sectors (N_{CREW}) and the sum of flight sectors with sit periods longer than one hour (N_{CREW}+N_{SIT}) are associated with 70.1%/60.6% of the highest predicted scores of SP/KSS. Applying the mitigations DTleq44h, N_{CREW}leq15 and N_{CREW}+N_{SIT}leq19 for every 168-hour interval yields a significant decrease in the higher values of SP/KSS with minimal impact on aircrew productivity.

Text-conditioned image generation models have recently achieved astonishing results in image quality and text alignment and are consequently employed in a fast-growing number of applications. Since they are highly data-driven, relying on billion-sized datasets randomly scraped from the internet, they also suffer, as we demonstrate, from degenerated and biased human behavior. In turn, they may even reinforce such biases. To help combat these undesired side effects, we present safe latent diffusion (SLD). Specifically, to measure the inappropriate degeneration due to unfiltered and imbalanced training sets, we establish a novel image generation test bed-inappropriate image prompts (I2P)-containing dedicated, real-world image-to-text prompts covering concepts such as nudity and violence. As our exhaustive empirical evaluation demonstrates, the introduced SLD removes and suppresses inappropriate image parts during the diffusion process, with no additional training required and no adverse effect on overall image quality or text alignment.

While vision-language-action models (VLAs) have shown promising robotic behaviors across a diverse set of manipulation tasks, they achieve limited success rates when deployed on novel tasks out-of-the-box. To allow these policies to safely interact with their environments, we need a failure detector that gives a timely alert such that the robot can stop, backtrack, or ask for help. However, existing failure detectors are trained and tested only on one or a few specific tasks, while VLAs require the detector to generalize and detect failures also in unseen tasks and novel environments. In this paper, we introduce the multitask failure detection problem and propose SAFE, a failure detector for generalist robot policies such as VLAs. We analyze the VLA feature space and find that VLAs have sufficient high-level knowledge about task success and failure, which is generic across different tasks. Based on this insight, we design SAFE to learn from VLA internal features and predict a single scalar indicating the likelihood of task failure. SAFE is trained on both successful and failed rollouts, and is evaluated on unseen tasks. SAFE is compatible with different policy architectures. We test it on OpenVLA, pi_0, and pi_0-FAST in both simulated and real-world environments extensively. We compare SAFE with diverse baselines and show that SAFE achieves state-of-the-art failure detection performance and the best trade-off between accuracy and detection time using conformal prediction. More qualitative results can be found at https://vla-safe.github.io/.

The safe and effective deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) involves a critical step called alignment, which ensures that the model's responses are in accordance with human preferences. Prevalent alignment techniques, such as DPO, PPO and their variants, align LLMs by changing the pre-trained model weights during a phase called post-training. While predominant, these post-training methods add substantial complexity before LLMs can be deployed. Inference-time alignment methods avoid the complex post-training step and instead bias the generation towards responses that are aligned with human preferences. The best-known inference-time alignment method, called Best-of-N, is as effective as the state-of-the-art post-training procedures. Unfortunately, Best-of-N requires vastly more resources at inference time than standard decoding strategies, which makes it computationally not viable. In this work, we introduce Speculative Rejection, a computationally-viable inference-time alignment algorithm. It generates high-scoring responses according to a given reward model, like Best-of-N does, while being between 16 to 32 times more computationally efficient.

Ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained attention as a promising approach to surpass the performance of individual models by leveraging their complementary strengths. In particular, aggregating models' next-token probability distributions to select the next token has been shown to be effective in various tasks. However, while successful for short-form answers, its application to long-form generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we show that using existing ensemble methods in long-form generation requires a careful choice of ensembling positions, since the standard practice of ensembling at every token often degrades performance. We identify two key factors for determining these positions: tokenization mismatch across models and consensus in their next-token probability distributions. Based on this, we propose SAFE, (Stable And Fast LLM Ensembling), a framework that selectively ensembles by jointly considering these factors. To further improve stability, we introduce a probability sharpening strategy that consolidates probabilities spread across multiple sub-word tokens representing the same word into a single representative token. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks, including MATH500 and BBH, demonstrate that SAFE outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, with gains achieved even when ensembling fewer than 1% of tokens.

In this position paper, we address the persistent gap between rapidly growing AI capabilities and lagging safety progress. Existing paradigms divide into ``Make AI Safe'', which applies post-hoc alignment and guardrails but remains brittle and reactive, and ``Make Safe AI'', which emphasizes intrinsic safety but struggles to address unforeseen risks in open-ended environments. We therefore propose safe-by-coevolution as a new formulation of the ``Make Safe AI'' paradigm, inspired by biological immunity, in which safety becomes a dynamic, adversarial, and ongoing learning process. To operationalize this vision, we introduce R^2AI -- Resistant and Resilient AI -- as a practical framework that unites resistance against known threats with resilience to unforeseen risks. R^2AI integrates fast and slow safe models, adversarial simulation and verification through a safety wind tunnel, and continual feedback loops that guide safety and capability to coevolve. We argue that this framework offers a scalable and proactive path to maintain continual safety in dynamic environments, addressing both near-term vulnerabilities and long-term existential risks as AI advances toward AGI and ASI.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Handling distribution shifts from training data, known as out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, poses a significant challenge in the field of machine learning. While a pre-trained vision-language model like CLIP has demonstrated remarkable zero-shot performance, further adaptation of the model to downstream tasks leads to undesirable degradation for OOD data. In this work, we introduce Sparse Adaptation for Fine-Tuning (SAFT), a method that prevents fine-tuning from forgetting the general knowledge in the pre-trained model. SAFT only updates a small subset of important parameters whose gradient magnitude is large, while keeping the other parameters frozen. SAFT is straightforward to implement and conceptually simple. Extensive experiments show that with only 0.1% of the model parameters, SAFT can significantly improve the performance of CLIP. It consistently outperforms baseline methods across several benchmarks. On the few-shot learning benchmark of ImageNet and its variants, SAFT gives a gain of 5.15% on average over the conventional fine-tuning method in OOD settings.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

This paper presents SANA-Sprint, an efficient diffusion model for ultra-fast text-to-image (T2I) generation. SANA-Sprint is built on a pre-trained foundation model and augmented with hybrid distillation, dramatically reducing inference steps from 20 to 1-4. We introduce three key innovations: (1) We propose a training-free approach that transforms a pre-trained flow-matching model for continuous-time consistency distillation (sCM), eliminating costly training from scratch and achieving high training efficiency. Our hybrid distillation strategy combines sCM with latent adversarial distillation (LADD): sCM ensures alignment with the teacher model, while LADD enhances single-step generation fidelity. (2) SANA-Sprint is a unified step-adaptive model that achieves high-quality generation in 1-4 steps, eliminating step-specific training and improving efficiency. (3) We integrate ControlNet with SANA-Sprint for real-time interactive image generation, enabling instant visual feedback for user interaction. SANA-Sprint establishes a new Pareto frontier in speed-quality tradeoffs, achieving state-of-the-art performance with 7.59 FID and 0.74 GenEval in only 1 step - outperforming FLUX-schnell (7.94 FID / 0.71 GenEval) while being 10x faster (0.1s vs 1.1s on H100). It also achieves 0.1s (T2I) and 0.25s (ControlNet) latency for 1024 x 1024 images on H100, and 0.31s (T2I) on an RTX 4090, showcasing its exceptional efficiency and potential for AI-powered consumer applications (AIPC). Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Classical machine learning models such as deep neural networks are usually trained by using Stochastic Gradient Descent-based (SGD) algorithms. The classical SGD can be interpreted as a discretization of the stochastic gradient flow. In this paper we propose a novel, robust and accelerated stochastic optimizer that relies on two key elements: (1) an accelerated Nesterov-like Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and (2) its semi-implicit Gauss-Seidel type discretization. The convergence and stability of the obtained method, referred to as NAG-GS, are first studied extensively in the case of the minimization of a quadratic function. This analysis allows us to come up with an optimal learning rate in terms of the convergence rate while ensuring the stability of NAG-GS. This is achieved by the careful analysis of the spectral radius of the iteration matrix and the covariance matrix at stationarity with respect to all hyperparameters of our method. Further, we show that NAG- GS is competitive with state-of-the-art methods such as momentum SGD with weight decay and AdamW for the training of machine learning models such as the logistic regression model, the residual networks models on standard computer vision datasets, Transformers in the frame of the GLUE benchmark and the recent Vision Transformers.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs, efficiently identifying the best model for downstream fine-tuning becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we introduce TimeTic, a transferability estimation framework that recasts model selection as an in-context-learning problem: given observations on known (source) datasets, it predicts how a TSFM will perform after fine-tuning on a downstream (target) dataset. TimeTic flexibly organizes the observed model-data relationships as contextual information, allowing it to adapt seamlessly to various test-time scenarios. Leveraging the natural tabular structure formed by dataset meta-features, model characteristics, and fine-tuned performance, we employ tabular foundation models to serve as in-context learners. We further introduce a novel model characterization based on entropy evolution across model layers, capturing embedding-space distinctions and enabling TimeTic to generalize across arbitrary model sets. We establish a comprehensive benchmark for transferability estimation including 10 datasets, 10 foundation models, and 3 forecasting tasks. On this benchmark, TimeTic's estimation demonstrates strong alignment with actual fine-tuned performance for previously unseen datasets, achieving a mean rank correlation of approximately 0.6 and a 30% improvement compared to using zero-shot performance as the transferability score.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

The Stable Diffusion Model (SDM) is a popular and efficient text-to-image (t2i) generation and image-to-image (i2i) generation model. Although there have been some attempts to reduce sampling steps, model distillation, and network quantization, these previous methods generally retain the original network architecture. Billion scale parameters and high computing requirements make the research of model architecture adjustment scarce. In this work, we first explore the computational redundancy part of the network, and then prune the redundancy blocks of the model and maintain the network performance through a progressive incubation strategy. Secondly, in order to maintaining the model performance, we add cross-layer multi-expert conditional convolution (CLME-Condconv) to the block pruning part to inherit the original convolution parameters. Thirdly, we propose a global-regional interactive (GRI) attention to speed up the computationally intensive attention part. Finally, we use semantic-aware supervision (SAS) to align the outputs of the teacher model and student model at the semantic level. Experiments show that this method can effectively train a lightweight model close to the performance of the original SD model, and effectively improve the model speed under limited resources. Experiments show that the proposed method can effectively train a light-weight model close to the performance of the original SD model, and effectively improve the model speed under limited resources. After acceleration, the UNet part of the model is 22% faster and the overall speed is 19% faster.

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either fine-tune large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time-series datasets to develop TSF foundation models. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich and high-quality natural images, based on the intrinsic similarities between images and time series. To bridge the gap between the two domains, we reformulate the TSF task as an image reconstruction task, which is further processed by a visual masked autoencoder (MAE) self-supervised pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time-series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve superior zero-shot forecasting performance compared to existing TSF foundation models. With minimal fine-tuning, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. These findings suggest that visual models could be a free lunch for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-domain research between computer vision and TSF. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

Foundation models have become increasingly popular for forecasting due to their ability to provide predictions without requiring a lot of training data. In this work, we demonstrate how TabPFN-v2, a general tabular foundation model, can be effectively applied to time series forecasting. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method that combines TabPFN-v2 with lightweight feature engineering to enable both point and probabilistic forecasting. Despite its simplicity and compact size (11M parameters), TabPFN-TS achieves top rank on the public GIFT-Eval leaderboard in both forecasting tasks. Through ablation studies, we investigate factors contributing to this surprising effectiveness, especially considering TabPFN-v2 was pretrained solely on synthetic tabular data with no exposure to time series. Our results highlights the potential of tabular foundation models like TabPFN-v2 as a valuable new approach for time series forecasting. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PriorLabs/tabpfn-time-series.

State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variational inference.

Shapley values are widely used to explain black-box models, but they are costly to calculate because they require many model evaluations. We introduce FastSHAP, a method for estimating Shapley values in a single forward pass using a learned explainer model. FastSHAP amortizes the cost of explaining many inputs via a learning approach inspired by the Shapley value's weighted least squares characterization, and it can be trained using standard stochastic gradient optimization. We compare FastSHAP to existing estimation approaches, revealing that it generates high-quality explanations with orders of magnitude speedup.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

The Sequential Recommendation modeling paradigm is shifting from Transformer to Mamba architecture, which comprises two generations: Mamba1, based on the State Space Model (SSM), and Mamba2, based on State Space Duality (SSD). Although SSD offers superior computational efficiency compared to SSM, it suffers performance degradation in sequential recommendation tasks, especially in low-dimensional scenarios that are critical for these tasks. Considering that time-aware enhancement methods are commonly employed to mitigate performance loss, our analysis reveals that the performance decline of SSD can similarly be fundamentally compensated by leveraging mechanisms in time-aware methods. Thus, we propose integrating time-awareness into the SSD framework to address these performance issues. However, integrating current time-aware methods, modeled after TiSASRec, into SSD faces the following challenges: 1) the complexity of integrating these transformer-based mechanisms with the SSD architecture, and 2) the computational inefficiency caused by the need for dimensionality expansion of time-difference modeling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a novel Time-aware Structured Masked Matrix that efficiently incorporates time-aware capabilities into SSD. Building on this, we propose Time-Aware Mamba for Recommendation (TiM4Rec), which mitigates performance degradation in low-dimensional SSD contexts while preserving computational efficiency. This marks the inaugural application of a time-aware enhancement method specifically tailored for the Mamba architecture within the domain of sequential recommendation. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach. The code for our model is accessible at https://github.com/AlwaysFHao/TiM4Rec.

Non-autoregressive text to speech (TTS) models such as FastSpeech can synthesize speech significantly faster than previous autoregressive models with comparable quality. The training of FastSpeech model relies on an autoregressive teacher model for duration prediction (to provide more information as input) and knowledge distillation (to simplify the data distribution in output), which can ease the one-to-many mapping problem (i.e., multiple speech variations correspond to the same text) in TTS. However, FastSpeech has several disadvantages: 1) the teacher-student distillation pipeline is complicated and time-consuming, 2) the duration extracted from the teacher model is not accurate enough, and the target mel-spectrograms distilled from teacher model suffer from information loss due to data simplification, both of which limit the voice quality. In this paper, we propose FastSpeech 2, which addresses the issues in FastSpeech and better solves the one-to-many mapping problem in TTS by 1) directly training the model with ground-truth target instead of the simplified output from teacher, and 2) introducing more variation information of speech (e.g., pitch, energy and more accurate duration) as conditional inputs. Specifically, we extract duration, pitch and energy from speech waveform and directly take them as conditional inputs in training and use predicted values in inference. We further design FastSpeech 2s, which is the first attempt to directly generate speech waveform from text in parallel, enjoying the benefit of fully end-to-end inference. Experimental results show that 1) FastSpeech 2 achieves a 3x training speed-up over FastSpeech, and FastSpeech 2s enjoys even faster inference speed; 2) FastSpeech 2 and 2s outperform FastSpeech in voice quality, and FastSpeech 2 can even surpass autoregressive models. Audio samples are available at https://speechresearch.github.io/fastspeech2/.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Spatiotemporal predictive learning methods generally fall into two categories: recurrent-based approaches, which face challenges in parallelization and performance, and recurrent-free methods, which employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as encoder-decoder architectures. These methods benefit from strong inductive biases but often at the expense of scalability and generalization. This paper proposes PredFormer, a pure transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal predictive learning. Motivated by the Vision Transformers (ViT) design, PredFormer leverages carefully designed Gated Transformer blocks, following a comprehensive analysis of 3D attention mechanisms, including full-, factorized-, and interleaved-spatial-temporal attention. With its recurrent-free, transformer-based design, PredFormer is both simple and efficient, significantly outperforming previous methods by large margins. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PredFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance. On Moving MNIST, PredFormer achieves a 51.3% reduction in MSE relative to SimVP. For TaxiBJ, the model decreases MSE by 33.1% and boosts FPS from 533 to 2364. Additionally, on WeatherBench, it reduces MSE by 11.1% while enhancing FPS from 196 to 404. These performance gains in both accuracy and efficiency demonstrate PredFormer's potential for real-world applications. The source code will be released at https://github.com/yyyujintang/PredFormer .

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Structured state space sequence (S4) models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. These models also have fast inference speeds and parallelisable training, making them potentially useful in many reinforcement learning settings. We propose a modification to a variant of S4 that enables us to initialise and reset the hidden state in parallel, allowing us to tackle reinforcement learning tasks. We show that our modified architecture runs asymptotically faster than Transformers in sequence length and performs better than RNN's on a simple memory-based task. We evaluate our modified architecture on a set of partially-observable environments and find that, in practice, our model outperforms RNN's while also running over five times faster. Then, by leveraging the model's ability to handle long-range sequences, we achieve strong performance on a challenging meta-learning task in which the agent is given a randomly-sampled continuous control environment, combined with a randomly-sampled linear projection of the environment's observations and actions. Furthermore, we show the resulting model can adapt to out-of-distribution held-out tasks. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that structured state space models are fast and performant for in-context reinforcement learning tasks. We provide code at https://github.com/luchris429/popjaxrl.

We propose an accurate and efficient scene text detection framework, termed FAST (i.e., faster arbitrarily-shaped text detector). Different from recent advanced text detectors that used complicated post-processing and hand-crafted network architectures, resulting in low inference speed, FAST has two new designs. (1) We design a minimalist kernel representation (only has 1-channel output) to model text with arbitrary shape, as well as a GPU-parallel post-processing to efficiently assemble text lines with a negligible time overhead. (2) We search the network architecture tailored for text detection, leading to more powerful features than most networks that are searched for image classification. Benefiting from these two designs, FAST achieves an excellent trade-off between accuracy and efficiency on several challenging datasets, including Total Text, CTW1500, ICDAR 2015, and MSRA-TD500. For example, FAST-T yields 81.6% F-measure at 152 FPS on Total-Text, outperforming the previous fastest method by 1.7 points and 70 FPS in terms of accuracy and speed. With TensorRT optimization, the inference speed can be further accelerated to over 600 FPS. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/czczup/FAST.

Diffusion models are emerging expressive generative models, in which a large number of time steps (inference steps) are required for a single image generation. To accelerate such tedious process, reducing steps uniformly is considered as an undisputed principle of diffusion models. We consider that such a uniform assumption is not the optimal solution in practice; i.e., we can find different optimal time steps for different models. Therefore, we propose to search the optimal time steps sequence and compressed model architecture in a unified framework to achieve effective image generation for diffusion models without any further training. Specifically, we first design a unified search space that consists of all possible time steps and various architectures. Then, a two stage evolutionary algorithm is introduced to find the optimal solution in the designed search space. To further accelerate the search process, we employ FID score between generated and real samples to estimate the performance of the sampled examples. As a result, the proposed method is (i).training-free, obtaining the optimal time steps and model architecture without any training process; (ii). orthogonal to most advanced diffusion samplers and can be integrated to gain better sample quality. (iii). generalized, where the searched time steps and architectures can be directly applied on different diffusion models with the same guidance scale. Experimental results show that our method achieves excellent performance by using only a few time steps, e.g. 17.86 FID score on ImageNet 64 times 64 with only four steps, compared to 138.66 with DDIM. The code is available at https://github.com/lilijiangg/AutoDiffusion.

Large language models (LLMs) power a new generation of interactive AI applications exemplified by ChatGPT. The interactive nature of these applications demand low job completion time (JCT) for model inference. Existing LLM serving systems use run-to-completion processing for inference jobs, which suffers from head-of-line blocking and long JCT. We present FastServe, a distributed inference serving system for LLMs. FastServe exploits the autoregressive pattern of LLM inference to enable preemption at the granularity of each output token. FastServe uses preemptive scheduling to minimize JCT with a novel skip-join Multi-Level Feedback Queue scheduler. Based on the new semi information-agnostic setting of LLM inference, the scheduler leverages the input length information to assign an appropriate initial queue for each arrival job to join. The higher priority queues than the joined queue are skipped to reduce demotions. We design an efficient GPU memory management mechanism that proactively offloads and uploads intermediate states between GPU memory and host memory for LLM inference. We build a system prototype of FastServe based on NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Experimental results show that compared to the state-of-the-art solution Orca, FastServe improves the average and tail JCT by up to 5.1times and 6.4times, respectively.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) require scalable sampling algorithms to approximate posterior distributions over parameters. Existing stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods are highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize and adaptive variants such as pSGLD typically fail to sample the correct invariant measure without addition of a costly divergence correction term. In this work, we build on the recently proposed `SamAdams' framework for timestep adaptation (Leimkuhler, Lohmann, and Whalley 2025), introducing an adaptive scheme: SA-SGLD, which employs time rescaling to modulate the stepsize according to a monitored quantity (typically the local gradient norm). SA-SGLD can automatically shrink stepsizes in regions of high curvature and expand them in flatter regions, improving both stability and mixing without introducing bias. We show that our method can achieve more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD on high-curvature 2D toy examples and in image classification with BNNs using sharp priors.

The emergence of large models, also known as foundation models, has brought significant advancements to AI research. One such model is Segment Anything (SAM), which is designed for image segmentation tasks. However, as with other foundation models, our experimental findings suggest that SAM may fail or perform poorly in certain segmentation tasks, such as shadow detection and camouflaged object detection (concealed object detection). This study first paves the way for applying the large pre-trained image segmentation model SAM to these downstream tasks, even in situations where SAM performs poorly. Rather than fine-tuning the SAM network, we propose SAM-Adapter, which incorporates domain-specific information or visual prompts into the segmentation network by using simple yet effective adapters. By integrating task-specific knowledge with general knowledge learnt by the large model, SAM-Adapter can significantly elevate the performance of SAM in challenging tasks as shown in extensive experiments. We can even outperform task-specific network models and achieve state-of-the-art performance in the task we tested: camouflaged object detection, shadow detection. We also tested polyp segmentation (medical image segmentation) and achieves better results. We believe our work opens up opportunities for utilizing SAM in downstream tasks, with potential applications in various fields, including medical image processing, agriculture, remote sensing, and more.

Recent advances in large vision-language models (LVLMs) have revealed an overthinking phenomenon, where models generate verbose reasoning across all tasks regardless of questions. To address this issue, we present FAST, a novel Fast-Slow Thinking framework that dynamically adapts reasoning depth based on question characteristics. Through empirical analysis, we establish the feasibility of fast-slow thinking in LVLMs by investigating how response length and data distribution affect performance. We develop FAST-GRPO with three components: model-based metrics for question characterization, an adaptive thinking reward mechanism, and difficulty-aware KL regularization. Experiments across seven reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that FAST achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with over 10\% relative improvement compared to the base model, while reducing token usage by 32.7-67.3\% compared to previous slow-thinking approaches, effectively balancing reasoning length and accuracy.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) have achieved considerable success in generation tasks. As sampling from DPMs is equivalent to solving diffusion SDE or ODE which is time-consuming, numerous fast sampling methods built upon improved differential equation solvers are proposed. The majority of such techniques consider solving the diffusion ODE due to its superior efficiency. However, stochastic sampling could offer additional advantages in generating diverse and high-quality data. In this work, we engage in a comprehensive analysis of stochastic sampling from two aspects: variance-controlled diffusion SDE and linear multi-step SDE solver. Based on our analysis, we propose SA-Solver, which is an improved efficient stochastic Adams method for solving diffusion SDE to generate data with high quality. Our experiments show that SA-Solver achieves: 1) improved or comparable performance compared with the existing state-of-the-art sampling methods for few-step sampling; 2) SOTA FID scores on substantial benchmark datasets under a suitable number of function evaluations (NFEs).

As large language models (LLMs) grow in scale and capability, understanding their internal mechanisms becomes increasingly critical. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a key tool in mechanistic interpretability, enabling the extraction of human-interpretable features from LLMs. However, existing SAE training methods are primarily designed for base models, resulting in reduced reconstruction quality and interpretability when applied to instruct models. To bridge this gap, we propose textbf{F}inetuning-textbf{a}ligned textbf{S}equential textbf{T}raining (FAST), a novel training method specifically tailored for instruct models. FAST aligns the training process with the data distribution and activation patterns characteristic of instruct models, resulting in substantial improvements in both reconstruction and feature interpretability. On Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, FAST achieves a mean squared error of 0.6468 in token reconstruction, significantly outperforming baseline methods with errors of 5.1985 and 1.5096. In feature interpretability, FAST yields a higher proportion of high-quality features, for Llama3.2-3B-Instruct, 21.1% scored in the top range, compared to 7.0% and 10.2% for BT(P) and BT(F). Surprisingly, we discover that intervening on the activations of special tokens via the SAEs leads to improvements in output quality, suggesting new opportunities for fine-grained control of model behavior. Code, data, and 240 trained SAEs are available at https://github.com/Geaming2002/FAST.

While image generation with diffusion models has achieved a great success, generating images of higher resolution than the training size remains a challenging task due to the high computational cost. Current methods typically perform the entire sampling process at full resolution and process all frequency components simultaneously, contradicting with the inherent coarse-to-fine nature of latent diffusion models and wasting computations on processing premature high-frequency details at early diffusion stages. To address this issue, we introduce an efficient Frequency-aware Cascaded Sampling framework, FreCaS in short, for higher-resolution image generation. FreCaS decomposes the sampling process into cascaded stages with gradually increased resolutions, progressively expanding frequency bands and refining the corresponding details. We propose an innovative frequency-aware classifier-free guidance (FA-CFG) strategy to assign different guidance strengths for different frequency components, directing the diffusion model to add new details in the expanded frequency domain of each stage. Additionally, we fuse the cross-attention maps of previous and current stages to avoid synthesizing unfaithful layouts. Experiments demonstrate that FreCaS significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in image quality and generation speed. In particular, FreCaS is about 2.86times and 6.07times faster than ScaleCrafter and DemoFusion in generating a 2048times2048 image using a pre-trained SDXL model and achieves an FID_b improvement of 11.6 and 3.7, respectively. FreCaS can be easily extended to more complex models such as SD3. The source code of FreCaS can be found at text{https://github.com/xtudbxk/FreCaS}{https://github.com/xtudbxk/FreCaS}.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

Parameter efficient finetuning methods like low-rank adaptation (LoRA) aim to reduce the computational costs of finetuning pretrained Language Models (LMs). Enabled by these low-rank settings, we propose an even more efficient optimization strategy: Fast Forward, a simple and effective approach to accelerate large segments of training. In a Fast Forward stage, we repeat the most recent optimizer step until the loss stops improving on a tiny validation set. By alternating between regular optimization steps and Fast Forward stages, Fast Forward provides up to an 87\% reduction in FLOPs and up to an 81\% reduction in train time over standard SGD with Adam. We validate Fast Forward by finetuning various models on different tasks and demonstrate that it speeds up training without compromising model performance. Additionally, we analyze when and how to apply Fast Forward.

Existing methods to recover model accuracy on analog-digital hardware in the presence of quantization and analog noise include noise-injection training. However, it can be slow in practice, incurring high computational costs, even when starting from pretrained models. We introduce the Sensitivity-Aware Finetuning (SAFT) approach that identifies noise sensitive layers in a model, and uses the information to freeze specific layers for noise-injection training. Our results show that SAFT achieves comparable accuracy to noise-injection training and is 2x to 8x faster.

We propose a method for adapting neural networks to distribution shifts at test-time. In contrast to training-time robustness mechanisms that attempt to anticipate and counter the shift, we create a closed-loop system and make use of a test-time feedback signal to adapt a network on the fly. We show that this loop can be effectively implemented using a learning-based function, which realizes an amortized optimizer for the network. This leads to an adaptation method, named Rapid Network Adaptation (RNA), that is notably more flexible and orders of magnitude faster than the baselines. Through a broad set of experiments using various adaptation signals and target tasks, we study the efficiency and flexibility of this method. We perform the evaluations using various datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ScanNet, Hypersim, COCO, ImageNet), tasks (depth, optical flow, semantic segmentation, classification), and distribution shifts (Cross-datasets, 2D and 3D Common Corruptions) with promising results. We end with a discussion on general formulations for handling distribution shifts and our observations from comparing with similar approaches from other domains.

Fast feedforward networks (FFFs) are a class of neural networks that exploit the observation that different regions of the input space activate distinct subsets of neurons in wide networks. FFFs partition the input space into separate sections using a differentiable binary tree of neurons and during inference descend the binary tree in order to improve computational efficiency. Inspired by Mixture of Experts (MoE) research, we propose the incorporation of load balancing and Master Leaf techniques into the FFF architecture to improve performance and simplify the training process. We reproduce experiments found in literature and present results on FFF models enhanced using these techniques. The proposed architecture and training recipe achieves up to 16.3% and 3% absolute classification accuracy increase in training and test accuracy, respectively, compared to the original FFF architecture. Additionally, we observe a smaller variance in the results compared to those reported in prior research. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating MoE-inspired techniques into FFFs for developing more accurate and efficient models.

The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters, making TSPulse 10-100X smaller than existing pre-trained models. Its efficiency enables GPU-free inference and rapid pre-training, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. Models will be open-sourced soon.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Conformer-based models have become the dominant end-to-end architecture for speech processing tasks. With the objective of enhancing the conformer architecture for efficient training and inference, we carefully redesigned Conformer with a novel downsampling schema. The proposed model, named Fast Conformer(FC), is 2.8x faster than the original Conformer, supports scaling to Billion parameters without any changes to the core architecture and also achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on Automatic Speech Recognition benchmarks. To enable transcription of long-form speech up to 11 hours, we replaced global attention with limited context attention post-training, while also improving accuracy through fine-tuning with the addition of a global token. Fast Conformer, when combined with a Transformer decoder also outperforms the original Conformer in accuracy and in speed for Speech Translation and Spoken Language Understanding.

Diffusion Transformers (DiT) have revolutionized high-fidelity image and video synthesis, yet their computational demands remain prohibitive for real-time applications. To solve this problem, feature caching has been proposed to accelerate diffusion models by caching the features in the previous timesteps and then reusing them in the following timesteps. However, at timesteps with significant intervals, the feature similarity in diffusion models decreases substantially, leading to a pronounced increase in errors introduced by feature caching, significantly harming the generation quality. To solve this problem, we propose TaylorSeer, which firstly shows that features of diffusion models at future timesteps can be predicted based on their values at previous timesteps. Based on the fact that features change slowly and continuously across timesteps, TaylorSeer employs a differential method to approximate the higher-order derivatives of features and predict features in future timesteps with Taylor series expansion. Extensive experiments demonstrate its significant effectiveness in both image and video synthesis, especially in high acceleration ratios. For instance, it achieves an almost lossless acceleration of 4.99times on FLUX and 5.00times on HunyuanVideo without additional training. On DiT, it achieves 3.41 lower FID compared with previous SOTA at 4.53times acceleration. %Our code is provided in the supplementary materials and will be made publicly available on GitHub. Our codes have been released in Github:https://github.com/Shenyi-Z/TaylorSeer

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

The Stable Diffusion Model (SDM) is a prevalent and effective model for text-to-image (T2I) and image-to-image (I2I) generation. Despite various attempts at sampler optimization, model distillation, and network quantification, these approaches typically maintain the original network architecture. The extensive parameter scale and substantial computational demands have limited research into adjusting the model architecture. This study focuses on reducing redundant computation in SDM and optimizes the model through both tuning and tuning-free methods. 1) For the tuning method, we design a model assembly strategy to reconstruct a lightweight model while preserving performance through distillation. Second, to mitigate performance loss due to pruning, we incorporate multi-expert conditional convolution (ME-CondConv) into compressed UNets to enhance network performance by increasing capacity without sacrificing speed. Third, we validate the effectiveness of the multi-UNet switching method for improving network speed. 2) For the tuning-free method, we propose a feature inheritance strategy to accelerate inference by skipping local computations at the block, layer, or unit level within the network structure. We also examine multiple sampling modes for feature inheritance at the time-step level. Experiments demonstrate that both the proposed tuning and the tuning-free methods can improve the speed and performance of the SDM. The lightweight model reconstructed by the model assembly strategy increases generation speed by 22.4%, while the feature inheritance strategy enhances the SDM generation speed by 40.0%.

The recently proposed segment anything model (SAM) has made a significant influence in many computer vision tasks. It is becoming a foundation step for many high-level tasks, like image segmentation, image caption, and image editing. However, its huge computation costs prevent it from wider applications in industry scenarios. The computation mainly comes from the Transformer architecture at high-resolution inputs. In this paper, we propose a speed-up alternative method for this fundamental task with comparable performance. By reformulating the task as segments-generation and prompting, we find that a regular CNN detector with an instance segmentation branch can also accomplish this task well. Specifically, we convert this task to the well-studied instance segmentation task and directly train the existing instance segmentation method using only 1/50 of the SA-1B dataset published by SAM authors. With our method, we achieve a comparable performance with the SAM method at 50 times higher run-time speed. We give sufficient experimental results to demonstrate its effectiveness. The codes and demos will be released at https://github.com/CASIA-IVA-Lab/FastSAM.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) pretrained on data from multiple domains have shown strong performance on diverse modeling tasks. Various efforts have been made to develop foundation models specific to electroencephalography (EEG) data, which records brain electrical activity as time series. However, no comparative analysis of EEG-specific foundation models (EEGFMs) versus general TSFMs has been performed on EEG-specific tasks. We introduce a novel Spatial-Temporal Adapter with Multi-Head Pooling (STAMP), which leverages univariate embeddings produced by a general TSFM, implicitly models spatial-temporal characteristics of EEG data, and achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art EEGFMs. A comprehensive analysis is performed on 8 benchmark datasets of clinical tasks using EEG for classification, along with ablation studies. Our proposed adapter is lightweight in trainable parameters and flexible in the inputs it can accommodate, supporting easy modeling of EEG data using TSFMs.

Speculative Decoding has gained popularity as an effective technique for accelerating the auto-regressive inference process of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, Speculative Decoding entirely relies on the availability of efficient draft models, which are often lacking for many existing language models due to a stringent constraint of vocabulary incompatibility. In this work we introduce FastDraft, a novel and efficient approach for pre-training and aligning a draft model to any large language model by incorporating efficient pre-training, followed by fine-tuning over synthetic datasets generated by the target model. We demonstrate FastDraft by training two highly parameter efficient drafts for the popular Phi-3-mini and Llama-3.1-8B models. Using FastDraft, we were able to produce a draft with approximately 10 billion tokens on a single server with 8 Intel^circledR Gaudi^circledR 2 accelerators in under 24 hours. Our results show that the draft model achieves impressive results in key metrics of acceptance rate, block efficiency and up to 3x memory bound speed up when evaluated on code completion and up to 2x in summarization, text completion and instruction tasks. We validate our theoretical findings through benchmarking on the latest Intel^circledR Core^{tiny TM} Ultra, achieving a wall-clock time speedup of up to 2x, indicating a significant reduction in runtime. Due to its high quality, FastDraft unlocks large language models inference on AI-PC and other edge-devices.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

State space models (SSMs) with selection mechanisms and hardware-aware architectures, namely Mamba, have recently demonstrated significant promise in long-sequence modeling. Since the self-attention mechanism in transformers has quadratic complexity with image size and increasing computational demands, the researchers are now exploring how to adapt Mamba for computer vision tasks. This paper is the first comprehensive survey aiming to provide an in-depth analysis of Mamba models in the field of computer vision. It begins by exploring the foundational concepts contributing to Mamba's success, including the state space model framework, selection mechanisms, and hardware-aware design. Next, we review these vision mamba models by categorizing them into foundational ones and enhancing them with techniques such as convolution, recurrence, and attention to improve their sophistication. We further delve into the widespread applications of Mamba in vision tasks, which include their use as a backbone in various levels of vision processing. This encompasses general visual tasks, Medical visual tasks (e.g., 2D / 3D segmentation, classification, and image registration, etc.), and Remote Sensing visual tasks. We specially introduce general visual tasks from two levels: High/Mid-level vision (e.g., Object detection, Segmentation, Video classification, etc.) and Low-level vision (e.g., Image super-resolution, Image restoration, Visual generation, etc.). We hope this endeavor will spark additional interest within the community to address current challenges and further apply Mamba models in computer vision.

Foundation models are a strong trend in deep learning and computer vision. These models serve as a base for applications as they require minor or no further fine-tuning by developers to integrate into their applications. Foundation models for zero-shot object segmentation such as Segment Anything (SAM) output segmentation masks from images without any further object information. When they are followed in a pipeline by an object identification model, they can perform object detection without training. Here, we focus on training such an object identification model. A crucial practical aspect for an object identification model is to be flexible in input size. As object identification is an image retrieval problem, a suitable method should handle multi-query multi-gallery situations without constraining the number of input images (e.g. by having fixed-size aggregation layers). The key solution to train such a model is the centroid triplet loss (CTL), which aggregates image features to their centroids. CTL yields high accuracy, avoids misleading training signals and keeps the model input size flexible. In our experiments, we establish a new state of the art on the ArmBench object identification task, which shows general applicability of our model. We furthermore demonstrate an integrated unseen object detection pipeline on the challenging HOPE dataset, which requires fine-grained detection. There, our pipeline matches and surpasses related methods which have been trained on dataset-specific data.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Softmax attention is the principle backbone of foundation models for various artificial intelligence applications, yet its quadratic complexity in sequence length can limit its inference throughput in long-context settings. To address this challenge, alternative architectures such as linear attention, State Space Models (SSMs), and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been considered as more efficient alternatives. While connections between these approaches exist, such models are commonly developed in isolation and there is a lack of theoretical understanding of the shared principles underpinning these architectures and their subtle differences, greatly influencing performance and scalability. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamical Systems Framework (DSF), which allows a principled investigation of all these architectures in a common representation. Our framework facilitates rigorous comparisons, providing new insights on the distinctive characteristics of each model class. For instance, we compare linear attention and selective SSMs, detailing their differences and conditions under which both are equivalent. We also provide principled comparisons between softmax attention and other model classes, discussing the theoretical conditions under which softmax attention can be approximated. Additionally, we substantiate these new insights with empirical validations and mathematical arguments. This shows the DSF's potential to guide the systematic development of future more efficient and scalable foundation models.

Transformers have widely adopted attention networks for sequence mixing and MLPs for channel mixing, playing a pivotal role in achieving breakthroughs across domains. However, recent literature highlights issues with attention networks, including low inductive bias and quadratic complexity concerning input sequence length. State Space Models (SSMs) like S4 and others (Hippo, Global Convolutions, liquid S4, LRU, Mega, and Mamba), have emerged to address the above issues to help handle longer sequence lengths. Mamba, while being the state-of-the-art SSM, has a stability issue when scaled to large networks for computer vision datasets. We propose SiMBA, a new architecture that introduces Einstein FFT (EinFFT) for channel modeling by specific eigenvalue computations and uses the Mamba block for sequence modeling. Extensive performance studies across image and time-series benchmarks demonstrate that SiMBA outperforms existing SSMs, bridging the performance gap with state-of-the-art transformers. Notably, SiMBA establishes itself as the new state-of-the-art SSM on ImageNet and transfer learning benchmarks such as Stanford Car and Flower as well as task learning benchmarks as well as seven time series benchmark datasets. The project page is available on this website ~https://github.com/badripatro/Simba.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have greatly improved their capabilities on complex reasoning tasks through Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, this approach often results in substantial redundancy, impairing computational efficiency and causing significant delays in real-time applications. To improve the efficiency, current methods often rely on human-defined difficulty priors, which do not align with the LLM's self-awared difficulty, leading to inefficiencies. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamic Reasoning-Boundary Self-Awareness Framework (DR. SAF), which enables models to dynamically assess and adjust their reasoning depth in response to problem complexity. DR. SAF integrates three key components: Boundary Self-Awareness Alignment, Adaptive Reward Management, and a Boundary Preservation Mechanism. These components allow models to optimize their reasoning processes, balancing efficiency and accuracy without compromising performance. Our experimental results demonstrate that DR. SAF achieves a 49.27% reduction in total response tokens with minimal loss in accuracy. The framework also delivers a 6.59x gain in token efficiency and a 5x reduction in training time, making it well-suited to resource-limited settings. During extreme training, DR. SAF can even surpass traditional instruction-based models in token efficiency with more than 16% accuracy improvement.

Three key properties that are desired of trustworthy machine learning models deployed in high-stakes environments are fairness, explainability, and an ability to account for various kinds of "drift". While drifts in model accuracy, for example due to covariate shift, have been widely investigated, drifts in fairness metrics over time remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose FEAMOE, a novel "mixture-of-experts" inspired framework aimed at learning fairer, more explainable/interpretable models that can also rapidly adjust to drifts in both the accuracy and the fairness of a classifier. We illustrate our framework for three popular fairness measures and demonstrate how drift can be handled with respect to these fairness constraints. Experiments on multiple datasets show that our framework as applied to a mixture of linear experts is able to perform comparably to neural networks in terms of accuracy while producing fairer models. We then use the large-scale HMDA dataset and show that while various models trained on HMDA demonstrate drift with respect to both accuracy and fairness, FEAMOE can ably handle these drifts with respect to all the considered fairness measures and maintain model accuracy as well. We also prove that the proposed framework allows for producing fast Shapley value explanations, which makes computationally efficient feature attribution based explanations of model decisions readily available via FEAMOE.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from vision to time series remains challenging due to three discrepancies: (1) the data-modality gap between structured, bounded image data and unbounded, heterogeneous time series; (2) the multivariate-forecasting gap between fixed RGB-three-channel vision models and time series with arbitrary numbers of variates; and (3) the probabilistic-forecasting gap between the deterministic outputs of vision models and the requirement for uncertainty-aware probabilistic predictions. To bridge these gaps, we propose VisonTS++, a TSFM based on continual pre-training of a vision model on large-scale time series. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) vision-model-based filtering to identify high-quality sequences to stabilize pre-training and mitigate modality gap; (2) colorized multivariate conversion, encoding multivariate series as multi-subfigure RGB images to enhance cross-variate modeling; (3) multi-quantile forecasting, using parallel reconstruction heads to generate quantile forecasts without parametric assumptions. Experiments show that VisionTS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution forecasting, outperforming specialized TSFMs by 6%-44% in MSE reduction and ranking first in GIFT-Eval benchmark which comprises 23 datasets across 7 domains. Our work demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation, vision models can effectively generalize to TSF, thus advancing the pursuit of universal TSFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/VisionTSpp.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

Large pre-trained models have achieved outstanding results in sequence modeling. The Transformer block and its attention mechanism have been the main drivers of the success of these models. Recently, alternative architectures, such as Selective Structured State Space Models (SSMs), have been proposed to address the inefficiencies of Transformers. This paper explores the compression of SSM-based models, particularly Mamba and its hybrids. We study the sensitivity of these models to the removal of selected components at different granularities to reduce the model size and computational overhead, thus improving their efficiency while maintaining accuracy. The proposed solutions, collectively referred to as Mamba-Shedder, achieve a speedup of up to 1.4x during inference, demonstrating that model efficiency can be improved by eliminating several redundancies with minimal impact on the overall model performance. The code is available at https://github.com/IntelLabs/Hardware-Aware-Automated-Machine-Learning.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently demonstrated competitive performance to transformers at large-scale language modeling benchmarks while achieving linear time and memory complexity as a function of sequence length. Mamba, a recently released SSM model, shows impressive performance in both language modeling and long sequence processing tasks. Simultaneously, mixture-of-expert (MoE) models have shown remarkable performance while significantly reducing the compute and latency costs of inference at the expense of a larger memory footprint. In this paper, we present BlackMamba, a novel architecture that combines the Mamba SSM with MoE to obtain the benefits of both. We demonstrate that BlackMamba performs competitively against both Mamba and transformer baselines, and outperforms in inference and training FLOPs. We fully train and open-source 340M/1.5B and 630M/2.8B BlackMamba models on 300B tokens of a custom dataset. We show that BlackMamba inherits and combines both of the benefits of SSM and MoE architectures, combining linear-complexity generation from SSM with cheap and fast inference from MoE. We release all weights, checkpoints, and inference code open-source. Inference code at: https://github.com/Zyphra/BlackMamba

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Diffusion models (DMs) have been adopted across diverse fields with its remarkable abilities in capturing intricate data distributions. In this paper, we propose a Fast Diffusion Model (FDM) to significantly speed up DMs from a stochastic optimization perspective for both faster training and sampling. We first find that the diffusion process of DMs accords with the stochastic optimization process of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on a stochastic time-variant problem. Then, inspired by momentum SGD that uses both gradient and an extra momentum to achieve faster and more stable convergence than SGD, we integrate momentum into the diffusion process of DMs. This comes with a unique challenge of deriving the noise perturbation kernel from the momentum-based diffusion process. To this end, we frame the process as a Damped Oscillation system whose critically damped state -- the kernel solution -- avoids oscillation and yields a faster convergence speed of the diffusion process. Empirical results show that our FDM can be applied to several popular DM frameworks, e.g., VP, VE, and EDM, and reduces their training cost by about 50% with comparable image synthesis performance on CIFAR-10, FFHQ, and AFHQv2 datasets. Moreover, FDM decreases their sampling steps by about 3x to achieve similar performance under the same samplers. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/FDM.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

We present Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM 2), a foundation model towards solving promptable visual segmentation in images and videos. We build a data engine, which improves model and data via user interaction, to collect the largest video segmentation dataset to date. Our model is a simple transformer architecture with streaming memory for real-time video processing. SAM 2 trained on our data provides strong performance across a wide range of tasks. In video segmentation, we observe better accuracy, using 3x fewer interactions than prior approaches. In image segmentation, our model is more accurate and 6x faster than the Segment Anything Model (SAM). We believe that our data, model, and insights will serve as a significant milestone for video segmentation and related perception tasks. We are releasing a version of our model, the dataset and an interactive demo.

MeanFlow (MF) has recently been established as a framework for one-step generative modeling. However, its ``fastforward'' nature introduces key challenges in both the training objective and the guidance mechanism. First, the original MF's training target depends not only on the underlying ground-truth fields but also on the network itself. To address this issue, we recast the objective as a loss on the instantaneous velocity v, re-parameterized by a network that predicts the average velocity u. Our reformulation yields a more standard regression problem and improves the training stability. Second, the original MF fixes the classifier-free guidance scale during training, which sacrifices flexibility. We tackle this issue by formulating guidance as explicit conditioning variables, thereby retaining flexibility at test time. The diverse conditions are processed through in-context conditioning, which reduces model size and benefits performance. Overall, our improved MeanFlow (iMF) method, trained entirely from scratch, achieves 1.72 FID with a single function evaluation (1-NFE) on ImageNet 256times256. iMF substantially outperforms prior methods of this kind and closes the gap with multi-step methods while using no distillation. We hope our work will further advance fastforward generative modeling as a stand-alone paradigm.

Foundation models, now powering most of the exciting applications in deep learning, are almost universally based on the Transformer architecture and its core attention module. Many subquadratic-time architectures such as linear attention, gated convolution and recurrent models, and structured state space models (SSMs) have been developed to address Transformers' computational inefficiency on long sequences, but they have not performed as well as attention on important modalities such as language. We identify that a key weakness of such models is their inability to perform content-based reasoning, and make several improvements. First, simply letting the SSM parameters be functions of the input addresses their weakness with discrete modalities, allowing the model to selectively propagate or forget information along the sequence length dimension depending on the current token. Second, even though this change prevents the use of efficient convolutions, we design a hardware-aware parallel algorithm in recurrent mode. We integrate these selective SSMs into a simplified end-to-end neural network architecture without attention or even MLP blocks (Mamba). Mamba enjoys fast inference (5times higher throughput than Transformers) and linear scaling in sequence length, and its performance improves on real data up to million-length sequences. As a general sequence model backbone, Mamba achieves state-of-the-art performance across several modalities such as language, audio, and genomics. On language modeling, our Mamba-3B model outperforms Transformers of the same size and matches Transformers twice its size, both in pretraining and downstream evaluation.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG

Test-Time Training (TTT) models context dependencies by adapting part of the model's weights (referred to as fast weights) during inference. This fast weight, akin to recurrent states in RNNs, stores temporary memories of past tokens in the current sequence. Existing TTT methods struggled to show effectiveness in handling long-context data, due to their inefficiency on modern GPUs. The TTT layers in many of these approaches operate with extremely low FLOPs utilization (often <5%) because they deliberately apply small online minibatch sizes (e.g., updating fast weights every 16 or 64 tokens). Moreover, a small minibatch implies fine-grained block-wise causal dependencies in the data, unsuitable for data beyond 1D ordered sequences, like sets or N-dimensional grids such as images or videos. In contrast, we pursue the opposite direction by using an extremely large chunk update, ranging from 2K to 1M tokens across tasks of varying modalities, which we refer to as Large Chunk Test-Time Training (LaCT). It improves hardware utilization by orders of magnitude, and more importantly, facilitates scaling of nonlinear state size (up to 40% of model parameters), hence substantially improving state capacity, all without requiring cumbersome and error-prone kernel implementations. It also allows easy integration of sophisticated optimizers, e.g. Muon for online updates. We validate our approach across diverse modalities and tasks, including novel view synthesis with image set, language models, and auto-regressive video diffusion. Our approach can scale up to 14B-parameter AR video diffusion model on sequences up to 56K tokens. In our longest sequence experiment, we perform novel view synthesis with 1 million context length. We hope this work will inspire and accelerate new research in the field of long-context modeling and test-time training. Website: https://tianyuanzhang.com/projects/ttt-done-right

In this technical report, we present Zamba, a novel 7B SSM-transformer hybrid model which achieves competitive performance against leading open-weight models at a comparable scale. Zamba is trained on 1T tokens from openly available datasets and is the best non-transformer model at this scale. Zamba pioneers a unique architecture combining a Mamba backbone with a single shared attention module, thus obtaining the benefits of attention at minimal parameter cost. Due to its architecture, Zamba is significantly faster at inference than comparable transformer models and requires substantially less memory for generation of long sequences. Zamba is pretrained in two phases: the first phase is based on existing web datasets, while the second one consists of annealing the model over high-quality instruct and synthetic datasets, and is characterized by a rapid learning rate decay. We open-source the weights and all checkpoints for Zamba, through both phase 1 and annealing phases.

The deployment and scaling of large language models (LLMs) have become critical as they permeate various applications, demanding high-throughput and low-latency serving systems. Existing frameworks struggle to balance these requirements, especially for workloads with long prompts. This paper introduces DeepSpeed-FastGen, a system that employs Dynamic SplitFuse, a novel prompt and generation composition strategy, to deliver up to 2.3x higher effective throughput, 2x lower latency on average, and up to 3.7x lower (token-level) tail latency, compared to state-of-the-art systems like vLLM. We leverage a synergistic combination of DeepSpeed-MII and DeepSpeed-Inference to provide an efficient and easy-to-use serving system for LLMs. DeepSpeed-FastGen's advanced implementation supports a range of models and offers both non-persistent and persistent deployment options, catering to diverse user scenarios from interactive sessions to long-running applications. We present a detailed benchmarking methodology, analyze the performance through latency-throughput curves, and investigate scalability via load balancing. Our evaluations demonstrate substantial improvements in throughput and latency across various models and hardware configurations. We discuss our roadmap for future enhancements, including broader model support and new hardware backends. The DeepSpeed-FastGen code is readily available for community engagement and contribution.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 28 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. The codebase, datasets, and a leaderboard showing all the results in detail will be available soon.

The performance of time series forecasting has recently been greatly improved by the introduction of transformers. In this paper, we propose a general multi-scale framework that can be applied to the state-of-the-art transformer-based time series forecasting models (FEDformer, Autoformer, etc.). By iteratively refining a forecasted time series at multiple scales with shared weights, introducing architecture adaptations, and a specially-designed normalization scheme, we are able to achieve significant performance improvements, from 5.5% to 38.5% across datasets and transformer architectures, with minimal additional computational overhead. Via detailed ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each of our contributions across the architecture and methodology. Furthermore, our experiments on various public datasets demonstrate that the proposed improvements outperform their corresponding baseline counterparts. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/scaleformer.

Feature selection is one of the most challenging issues in machine learning, especially while working with high dimensional data. In this paper, we address the problem of feature selection and propose a new approach called Evolving Fast and Slow. This new approach is based on using two parallel genetic algorithms having high and low mutation rates, respectively. Evolving Fast and Slow requires a new parallel architecture combining an automatic system that evolves fast and an effortful system that evolves slow. With this architecture, exploration and exploitation can be done simultaneously and in unison. Evolving fast, with high mutation rate, can be useful to explore new unknown places in the search space with long jumps; and Evolving Slow, with low mutation rate, can be useful to exploit previously known places in the search space with short movements. Our experiments show that Evolving Fast and Slow achieves very good results in terms of both accuracy and feature elimination.

We introduce Post-Optimization Model Edit (POME), a new algorithm that enhances the performance of fine-tuned large language models using only their pretrained and fine-tuned checkpoints, without requiring extra data or further optimization. The core idea is to apply a muon-style projection to ΔW, the difference between the fine-tuned and pretrained weights. This projection uses truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) to equalize the influence of dominant update directions and prune small singular values, which often represent noise. As a simple post-processing step, POME is completely decoupled from the training pipeline. It requires zero modifications and imposes no overhead, making it universally compatible with any optimizer or distributed framework. POME delivers consistent gains, boosting average performance by +2.5\% on GSM8K and +1.0\% on code generation. Its broad applicability -- from 7B foundation models to 72B RLHF-instructed models -- establishes it as a practical, zero-cost enhancement for any fine-tuning pipeline. Code is available at https://github.com/NUS-HPC-AI-Lab/POME.

As a promising approach to deal with distributed data, Federated Learning (FL) achieves major advancements in recent years. FL enables collaborative model training by exploiting the raw data dispersed in multiple edge devices. However, the data is generally non-independent and identically distributed, i.e., statistical heterogeneity, and the edge devices significantly differ in terms of both computation and communication capacity, i.e., system heterogeneity. The statistical heterogeneity leads to severe accuracy degradation while the system heterogeneity significantly prolongs the training process. In order to address the heterogeneity issue, we propose an Asynchronous Staleness-aware Model Update FL framework, i.e., FedASMU, with two novel methods. First, we propose an asynchronous FL system model with a dynamical model aggregation method between updated local models and the global model on the server for superior accuracy and high efficiency. Then, we propose an adaptive local model adjustment method by aggregating the fresh global model with local models on devices to further improve the accuracy. Extensive experimentation with 6 models and 5 public datasets demonstrates that FedASMU significantly outperforms baseline approaches in terms of accuracy (0.60% to 23.90% higher) and efficiency (3.54% to 97.98% faster).

Following its success for vision and text, the "foundation model" (FM) paradigm -- pretraining large models on massive data, then fine-tuning on target tasks -- has rapidly expanded to domains in the sciences, engineering, healthcare, and beyond. Has this achieved what the original FMs accomplished, i.e. the supplanting of traditional supervised learning in their domains? To answer we look at three modalities -- genomics, satellite imaging, and time series -- with multiple recent FMs and compare them to a standard supervised learning workflow: model development, hyperparameter tuning, and training, all using only data from the target task. Across these three specialized domains, we find that it is consistently possible to train simple supervised models -- no more complicated than a lightly modified wide ResNet or UNet -- that match or even outperform the latest foundation models. Our work demonstrates that the benefits of large-scale pretraining have yet to be realized in many specialized areas, reinforces the need to compare new FMs to strong, well-tuned baselines, and introduces two new, easy-to-use, open-source, and automated workflows for doing so.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule - namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions - for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs), inspired by large language models, offer a new paradigm for learning generalizable temporal representations from large and diverse datasets. This paper presents the first comprehensive empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets. Using a large-scale dataset of daily excess returns across diverse markets, we evaluate zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch against strong benchmark models. We find that off-the-shelf pre-trained TSFMs perform poorly in zero-shot and fine-tuning settings, whereas models pre-trained from scratch on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, underscoring the value of domain-specific adaptation. Increasing the dataset size, incorporating synthetic data augmentation, and applying hyperparameter tuning further enhance performance.

SDForger is a flexible and efficient framework for generating high-quality multivariate time series using LLMs. Leveraging a compact data representation, SDForger provides synthetic time series generation from a few samples and low-computation fine-tuning of any autoregressive LLM. Specifically, the framework transforms univariate and multivariate signals into tabular embeddings, which are then encoded into text and used to fine-tune the LLM. At inference, new textual embeddings are sampled and decoded into synthetic time series that retain the original data's statistical properties and temporal dynamics. Across a diverse range of datasets, SDForger outperforms existing generative models in many scenarios, both in similarity-based evaluations and downstream forecasting tasks. By enabling textual conditioning in the generation process, SDForger paves the way for multimodal modeling and the streamlined integration of time series with textual information. SDForger source code will be open-sourced soon.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Text to speech (TTS) has been broadly used to synthesize natural and intelligible speech in different scenarios. Deploying TTS in various end devices such as mobile phones or embedded devices requires extremely small memory usage and inference latency. While non-autoregressive TTS models such as FastSpeech have achieved significantly faster inference speed than autoregressive models, their model size and inference latency are still large for the deployment in resource constrained devices. In this paper, we propose LightSpeech, which leverages neural architecture search~(NAS) to automatically design more lightweight and efficient models based on FastSpeech. We first profile the components of current FastSpeech model and carefully design a novel search space containing various lightweight and potentially effective architectures. Then NAS is utilized to automatically discover well performing architectures within the search space. Experiments show that the model discovered by our method achieves 15x model compression ratio and 6.5x inference speedup on CPU with on par voice quality. Audio demos are provided at https://speechresearch.github.io/lightspeech.

The Transformer architecture has shown a remarkable ability in modeling global relationships. However, it poses a significant computational challenge when processing high-dimensional medical images. This hinders its development and widespread adoption in this task. Mamba, as a State Space Model (SSM), recently emerged as a notable manner for long-range dependencies in sequential modeling, excelling in natural language processing filed with its remarkable memory efficiency and computational speed. Inspired by its success, we introduce SegMamba, a novel 3D medical image Segmentation Mamba model, designed to effectively capture long-range dependencies within whole volume features at every scale. Our SegMamba, in contrast to Transformer-based methods, excels in whole volume feature modeling from a state space model standpoint, maintaining superior processing speed, even with volume features at a resolution of {64times 64times 64}. Comprehensive experiments on the BraTS2023 dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our SegMamba. The code for SegMamba is available at: https://github.com/ge-xing/SegMamba

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have become the de facto choice for generating high-quality images and videos, largely due to their scalability, which enables the construction of larger models for enhanced performance. However, the increased size of these models leads to higher inference costs, making them less attractive for real-time applications. We present Fast-FORward CAching (FORA), a simple yet effective approach designed to accelerate DiT by exploiting the repetitive nature of the diffusion process. FORA implements a caching mechanism that stores and reuses intermediate outputs from the attention and MLP layers across denoising steps, thereby reducing computational overhead. This approach does not require model retraining and seamlessly integrates with existing transformer-based diffusion models. Experiments show that FORA can speed up diffusion transformers several times over while only minimally affecting performance metrics such as the IS Score and FID. By enabling faster processing with minimal trade-offs in quality, FORA represents a significant advancement in deploying diffusion transformers for real-time applications. Code will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/prathebaselva/FORA.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

We introduce Sabi\'a-2, a family of large language models trained on Portuguese texts. The models are evaluated on a diverse range of exams, including entry-level tests for Brazilian universities, professional certification exams, and graduate-level exams for various disciplines such as accounting, economics, engineering, law and medicine. Our results reveal that our best model so far, Sabi\'a-2 Medium, matches or surpasses GPT-4's performance in 23 out of 64 exams and outperforms GPT-3.5 in 58 out of 64 exams. Notably, specialization has a significant impact on a model's performance without the need to increase its size, allowing us to offer Sabi\'a-2 Medium at a price per token that is 10 times cheaper than GPT-4. Finally, we identified that math and coding are key abilities that need improvement.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Approximating Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) as a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) has allowed researchers to enjoy the benefits of studying a continuous optimization trajectory while carefully preserving the stochasticity of SGD. Analogous study of adaptive gradient methods, such as RMSprop and Adam, has been challenging because there were no rigorously proven SDE approximations for these methods. This paper derives the SDE approximations for RMSprop and Adam, giving theoretical guarantees of their correctness as well as experimental validation of their applicability to common large-scaling vision and language settings. A key practical result is the derivation of a square root scaling rule to adjust the optimization hyperparameters of RMSprop and Adam when changing batch size, and its empirical validation in deep learning settings.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied to a popular decoder-only time series model (TimesFM). The resulting multiresolution decoder-only model is trained on over 300B unique data points, with more than half coming from the observability domain. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the resulting model achieves superior performance on observability datasets while retaining very similar performance on a standard general-purpose forecasting benchmark (GIFT-Eval), and suggest that the multiresolution structure enables the model to make more accurate predictions on long context input.

Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) and its variants have recently emerged as successful methods for novel view synthesis and 3D scene reconstruction. However, most current NeRF models either achieve high accuracy using large model sizes, or achieve high memory-efficiency by trading off accuracy. This limits the applicable scope of any single model, since high-accuracy models might not fit in low-memory devices, and memory-efficient models might not satisfy high-quality requirements. To this end, we present SlimmeRF, a model that allows for instant test-time trade-offs between model size and accuracy through slimming, thus making the model simultaneously suitable for scenarios with different computing budgets. We achieve this through a newly proposed algorithm named Tensorial Rank Incrementation (TRaIn) which increases the rank of the model's tensorial representation gradually during training. We also observe that our model allows for more effective trade-offs in sparse-view scenarios, at times even achieving higher accuracy after being slimmed. We credit this to the fact that erroneous information such as floaters tend to be stored in components corresponding to higher ranks. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Shiran-Yuan/SlimmeRF.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Scaling data and model size has been proven effective for boosting the performance of large language models. In addition to training-time scaling, recent studies have revealed that increasing test-time computational resources can further improve performance. In this work, we introduce Aggregation Fine-Tuning (AFT), a supervised finetuning paradigm where the model learns to synthesize multiple draft responses, referred to as proposals, into a single, refined answer, termed aggregation. At inference time, a propose-and-aggregate strategy further boosts performance by iteratively generating proposals and aggregating them. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets show that AFT-trained models substantially outperform standard SFT. Notably, an AFT model, fine-tuned from Llama3.1-8B-Base with only 64k data, achieves a 41.3% LC win rate on AlpacaEval 2, surpassing significantly larger LLMs such as Llama3.1-405B-Instruct and GPT4. By combining sequential refinement and parallel sampling, the propose-and-aggregate framework scales inference-time computation in a flexible manner. Overall, These findings position AFT as a promising approach to unlocking additional capabilities of LLMs without resorting to increasing data volume or model size.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this field. The objective of this work is to optimise the real-time processing of data in high-frequency trading algorithms. The dynamic feature selection mechanism is responsible for monitoring and analysing market data in real time through clustering and feature weight analysis, with the objective of automatically selecting the most relevant features. This process employs an adaptive feature extraction method, which enables the system to respond and adjust its feature set in a timely manner when the data input changes, thus ensuring the efficient utilisation of data. The lightweight neural networks are designed in a modular fashion, comprising fast convolutional layers and pruning techniques that facilitate the expeditious completion of data processing and output prediction. In contrast to conventional deep learning models, the neural network architecture has been specifically designed to minimise the number of parameters and computational complexity, thereby markedly reducing the inference time. The experimental results demonstrate that the model is capable of maintaining consistent performance in the context of varying market conditions, thereby illustrating its advantages in terms of processing speed and revenue enhancement.

Software engineering (SWE) has recently emerged as a crucial testbed for next-generation LLM agents, demanding inherent capabilities in two critical dimensions: sustained iterative problem-solving (e.g., >50 interaction rounds) and long-context dependency resolution (e.g., >32k tokens). However, the data curation process in SWE remains notoriously time-consuming, as it heavily relies on manual annotation for code file filtering and the setup of dedicated runtime environments to execute and validate unit tests. Consequently, most existing datasets are limited to only a few thousand GitHub-sourced instances. To this end, we propose an incremental, automated data-curation pipeline that systematically scales both the volume and diversity of SWE datasets. Our dataset comprises 10,169 real-world Python task instances from 2,531 distinct GitHub repositories, each accompanied by a task specified in natural language and a dedicated runtime-environment image for automated unit-test validation. We have carefully curated over 8,000 successfully runtime-validated training trajectories from our proposed SWE dataset. When fine-tuning the Skywork-SWE model on these trajectories, we uncover a striking data scaling phenomenon: the trained model's performance for software engineering capabilities in LLMs continues to improve as the data size increases, showing no signs of saturation. Notably, our Skywork-SWE model achieves 38.0% pass@1 accuracy on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark without using verifiers or multiple rollouts, establishing a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) among the Qwen2.5-Coder-32B-based LLMs built on the OpenHands agent framework. Furthermore, with the incorporation of test-time scaling techniques, the performance further improves to 47.0% accuracy, surpassing the previous SOTA results for sub-32B parameter models. We release the Skywork-SWE-32B model checkpoint to accelerate future research.

Recent work proposed state-space models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to transformer-based LLMs. Can these models be pruned to further reduce their computation costs? We adapt several pruning methods to the SSM structure, and apply them to four SSM-based LLMs across multiple tasks. We find that such models are quite robust to some pruning methods (e.g. WANDA), while using other methods lead to fast performance degradation.

Segment anything model (SAM) is a prompt-guided vision foundation model for cutting out the object of interest from its background. Since Meta research team released the SA project, SAM has attracted significant attention due to its impressive zero-shot transfer performance and high versatility of being compatible with other models for advanced vision applications like image editing with fine-grained control. Many of such use cases need to be run on resource-constraint edge devices, like mobile Apps. In this work, we aim to make SAM mobile-friendly by replacing the heavyweight image encoder with a lightweight one. A naive way to train such a new SAM as in the original SAM paper leads to unsatisfactory performance, especially when limited training sources are available. We find that this is mainly caused by the coupled optimization of the image encoder and mask decoder, motivated by which we propose decoupled distillation. Concretely, we distill the knowledge from the image encoder ViT-H in the original SAM to a lightweight image encoder, which can be automatically compatible with the mask decoder in the original SAM. The training can be completed on a single GPU within less than one day, and the resulting lightweight SAM is termed MobileSAM which is more than 60 times smaller yet performs on par with the original SAM. For inference speed, MobileSAM runs around 10ms per image: 8ms on the image encoder and 2ms on the mask decoder. With superior performance and a higher versatility, our MobileSAM is 7 times smaller and 4 times faster than the concurrent FastSAM, making it more suitable for mobile applications. The code for MobileSAM project is provided at https://github.com/ChaoningZhang/MobileSAM

The entry of large language models (LLMs) into research and commercial spaces has led to a trend of ever-larger models, with initial promises of generalisability, followed by a widespread desire to downsize and create specialised models without the need for complete fine-tuning, using Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning (PEFT) methods. We present an investigation into the suitability of different PEFT methods to clinical decision-making tasks, across a range of model sizes, including extremely small models with as few as 25 million parameters. Our analysis shows that the performance of most PEFT approaches varies significantly from one task to another, with the exception of LoRA, which maintains relatively high performance across all model sizes and tasks, typically approaching or matching full fine-tuned performance. The effectiveness of PEFT methods in the clinical domain is evident, particularly for specialised models which can operate on low-cost, in-house computing infrastructure. The advantages of these models, in terms of speed and reduced training costs, dramatically outweighs any performance gain from large foundation LLMs. Furthermore, we highlight how domain-specific pre-training interacts with PEFT methods and model size, and discuss how these factors interplay to provide the best efficiency-performance trade-off. Full code available at: tbd.

Recent breakthroughs in solving reasoning, math and coding problems with Large Language Models (LLMs) have been enabled by investing substantial computation budgets at inference time. Therefore, inference speed is one of the most critical properties of LLM architectures, and there is a growing need for LLMs that are efficient and fast at inference. Recently, LLMs built on the xLSTM architecture have emerged as a powerful alternative to Transformers, offering linear compute scaling with sequence length and constant memory usage, both highly desirable properties for efficient inference. However, such xLSTM-based LLMs have yet to be scaled to larger models and assessed and compared with respect to inference speed and efficiency. In this work, we introduce xLSTM 7B, a 7-billion-parameter LLM that combines xLSTM's architectural benefits with targeted optimizations for fast and efficient inference. Our experiments demonstrate that xLSTM 7B achieves performance on downstream tasks comparable to other similar-sized LLMs, while providing significantly faster inference speeds and greater efficiency compared to Llama- and Mamba-based LLMs. These results establish xLSTM 7B as the fastest and most efficient 7B LLM, offering a solution for tasks that require large amounts of test-time computation. Our work highlights xLSTM's potential as a foundational architecture for methods building on heavy use of LLM inference. Our model weights, model code and training code are open-source.

Recent advancements in sequence modeling have led to the emergence of Structured State Space Models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Transformers, addressing challenges in long-range dependency modeling and computational efficiency. While RNNs suffer from vanishing gradients and sequential inefficiencies, and Transformers face quadratic complexity, SSMs leverage structured recurrence and state-space representations to achieve superior long-sequence processing with linear or near-linear complexity. This survey provides a comprehensive review of SSMs, tracing their evolution from the foundational S4 model to its successors like Mamba, Simplified Structured State Space Sequence Model (S5), and Jamba, highlighting their improvements in computational efficiency, memory optimization, and inference speed. By comparing SSMs with traditional sequence models across domains such as natural language processing (NLP), speech recognition, vision, and time-series forecasting, we demonstrate their advantages in handling long-range dependencies while reducing computational overhead. Despite their potential, challenges remain in areas such as training optimization, hybrid modeling, and interpretability. This survey serves as a structured guide for researchers and practitioners, detailing the advancements, trade-offs, and future directions of SSM-based architectures in AI and deep learning.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) offer a promising alternative to autoregressive models, but their practical utility is severely hampered by slow, iterative sampling. We present SchED, a training-free, model-agnostic early-exit algorithm that aggregates full-span logit margins and halts decoding once a smooth, progress-dependent confidence threshold is met. We evaluated SchED on two dLLM families (Dream and LLaDA), in base and instruction-tuned variants across ten benchmarks spanning downstream tasks including multiple-choice question answering (MCQ), math, long-form QA/summarization, and translation. SchED delivers large, stable accelerations: on instruction-tuned models, it achieves 3.8-4.0times speedups while retaining 99.8-100% of the baseline score on average. On base models, SchED yields consistent speedup gains with 99.1-100% performance retention, with up to 2.34times under more aggressive settings. Using a conservative speed metric that heavily penalizes quality loss (QPS, γ{=}4), we show that SchED is robust and clearly outperforms prior confidence-based early-exit methods, which break down on long-form generation. An entropy analysis of the model's token predictions reveals that instruction tuning speeds up the decay of predictive entropy. By turning genuine confidence stabilization into computational savings, SchED makes dLLM decoding substantially more efficient.