Daily Papers

We present our system (denoted as T05) for the VoiceMOS Challenge (VMC) 2024. Our system was designed for the VMC 2024 Track 1, which focused on the accurate prediction of naturalness mean opinion score (MOS) for high-quality synthetic speech. In addition to a pretrained self-supervised learning (SSL)-based speech feature extractor, our system incorporates a pretrained image feature extractor to capture the difference of synthetic speech observed in speech spectrograms. We first separately train two MOS predictors that use either of an SSL-based or spectrogram-based feature. Then, we fine-tune the two predictors for better MOS prediction using the fusion of two extracted features. In the VMC 2024 Track 1, our T05 system achieved first place in 7 out of 16 evaluation metrics and second place in the remaining 9 metrics, with a significant difference compared to those ranked third and below. We also report the results of our ablation study to investigate essential factors of our system.

We present the UTokyo-SaruLab mean opinion score (MOS) prediction system submitted to VoiceMOS Challenge 2022. The challenge is to predict the MOS values of speech samples collected from previous Blizzard Challenges and Voice Conversion Challenges for two tracks: a main track for in-domain prediction and an out-of-domain (OOD) track for which there is less labeled data from different listening tests. Our system is based on ensemble learning of strong and weak learners. Strong learners incorporate several improvements to the previous fine-tuning models of self-supervised learning (SSL) models, while weak learners use basic machine-learning methods to predict scores from SSL features. In the Challenge, our system had the highest score on several metrics for both the main and OOD tracks. In addition, we conducted ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

In this work, we present the SOMOS dataset, the first large-scale mean opinion scores (MOS) dataset consisting of solely neural text-to-speech (TTS) samples. It can be employed to train automatic MOS prediction systems focused on the assessment of modern synthesizers, and can stimulate advancements in acoustic model evaluation. It consists of 20K synthetic utterances of the LJ Speech voice, a public domain speech dataset which is a common benchmark for building neural acoustic models and vocoders. Utterances are generated from 200 TTS systems including vanilla neural acoustic models as well as models which allow prosodic variations. An LPCNet vocoder is used for all systems, so that the samples' variation depends only on the acoustic models. The synthesized utterances provide balanced and adequate domain and length coverage. We collect MOS naturalness evaluations on 3 English Amazon Mechanical Turk locales and share practices leading to reliable crowdsourced annotations for this task. We provide baseline results of state-of-the-art MOS prediction models on the SOMOS dataset and show the limitations that such models face when assigned to evaluate TTS utterances.

In speech generation tasks, human subjective ratings, usually referred to as the opinion score, are considered the "gold standard" for speech quality evaluation, with the mean opinion score (MOS) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Due to the high cost of human annotation, several MOS prediction systems have emerged in the speech domain, demonstrating good performance. These MOS prediction models are trained using annotations from previous speech-related challenges. However, compared to the speech domain, the singing domain faces data scarcity and stricter copyright protections, leading to a lack of high-quality MOS-annotated datasets for singing. To address this, we propose SingMOS, a high-quality and diverse MOS dataset for singing, covering a range of Chinese and Japanese datasets. These synthesized vocals are generated using state-of-the-art models in singing synthesis, conversion, or resynthesis tasks and are rated by professional annotators alongside real vocals. Data analysis demonstrates the diversity and reliability of our dataset. Additionally, we conduct further exploration on SingMOS, providing insights for singing MOS prediction and guidance for the continued expansion of SingMOS.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs is a central challenge for safely deploying machine learning models in the real world. Existing solutions are mainly driven by small datasets, with low resolution and very few class labels (e.g., CIFAR). As a result, OOD detection for large-scale image classification tasks remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we bridge this critical gap by proposing a group-based OOD detection framework, along with a novel OOD scoring function termed MOS. Our key idea is to decompose the large semantic space into smaller groups with similar concepts, which allows simplifying the decision boundaries between in- vs. out-of-distribution data for effective OOD detection. Our method scales substantially better for high-dimensional class space than previous approaches. We evaluate models trained on ImageNet against four carefully curated OOD datasets, spanning diverse semantics. MOS establishes state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average FPR95 by 14.33% while achieving 6x speedup in inference compared to the previous best method.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

Speech quality assessment typically requires evaluating audio from multiple aspects, such as mean opinion score (MOS) and speaker similarity (SIM) \etc., which can be challenging to cover using one small model designed for a single task. In this paper, we propose leveraging recently introduced auditory large language models (LLMs) for automatic speech quality assessment. By employing task-specific prompts, auditory LLMs are finetuned to predict MOS, SIM and A/B testing results, which are commonly used for evaluating text-to-speech systems. Additionally, the finetuned auditory LLM is able to generate natural language descriptions assessing aspects like noisiness, distortion, discontinuity, and overall quality, providing more interpretable outputs. Extensive experiments have been performed on the NISQA, BVCC, SOMOS and VoxSim speech quality datasets, using open-source auditory LLMs such as SALMONN, Qwen-Audio, and Qwen2-Audio. For the natural language descriptions task, a commercial model Google Gemini 1.5 Pro is also evaluated. The results demonstrate that auditory LLMs achieve competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art task-specific small models in predicting MOS and SIM, while also delivering promising results in A/B testing and natural language descriptions. Our data processing scripts and finetuned model checkpoints can be found at https://github.com/bytedance/SALMONN.

Evaluation of text-to-music systems is constrained by the cost and availability of collecting experts for assessment. AudioMOS 2025 Challenge track 1 is created to automatically predict music impression (MI) as well as text alignment (TA) between the prompt and the generated musical piece. This paper reports our winning system, which uses a dual-branch architecture with pre-trained MuQ and RoBERTa models as audio and text encoders. A cross-attention mechanism fuses the audio and text representations. For training, we reframe the MI and TA prediction as a classification task. To incorporate the ordinal nature of MOS scores, one-hot labels are converted to a soft distribution using a Gaussian kernel. On the official test set, a single model trained with this method achieves a system-level Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCC) of 0.991 for MI and 0.952 for TA, corresponding to a relative improvement of 21.21\% in MI SRCC and 31.47\% in TA SRCC over the challenge baseline.

With the advent of LLMs, various tasks across the natural language processing domain have been transformed. However, their application in predictive tasks remains less researched. This study compares large language models, including GatorTron-Base (trained on clinical data), Llama 8B, and Mistral 7B, against models like BioBERT, DocBERT, BioClinicalBERT, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec, setting benchmarks for predicting Shock in critically ill patients. Timely prediction of shock can enable early interventions, thus improving patient outcomes. Text data from 17,294 ICU stays of patients in the MIMIC III database were scored for length of stay > 24 hours and shock index (SI) > 0.7 to yield 355 and 87 patients with normal and abnormal SI-index, respectively. Both focal and cross-entropy losses were used during finetuning to address class imbalances. Our findings indicate that while GatorTron Base achieved the highest weighted recall of 80.5%, the overall performance metrics were comparable between SLMs and LLMs. This suggests that LLMs are not inherently superior to SLMs in predicting future clinical events despite their strong performance on text-based tasks. To achieve meaningful clinical outcomes, future efforts in training LLMs should prioritize developing models capable of predicting clinical trajectories rather than focusing on simpler tasks such as named entity recognition or phenotyping.

This paper uses the MIMIC-IV dataset to examine the fairness and bias in an XGBoost binary classification model predicting the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS). Highlighting the critical role of the ICU in managing critically ill patients, the study addresses the growing strain on ICU capacity. It emphasizes the significance of LOS prediction for resource allocation. The research reveals class imbalances in the dataset across demographic attributes and employs data preprocessing and feature extraction. While the XGBoost model performs well overall, disparities across race and insurance attributes reflect the need for tailored assessments and continuous monitoring. The paper concludes with recommendations for fairness-aware machine learning techniques for mitigating biases and the need for collaborative efforts among healthcare professionals and data scientists.

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains 156,309 unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to 26,734 (17.1%) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of 0.847 pm 0.050 (internal out-of sample validation) and 0.761 pm 0.052 (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of 17%, at 80% recall our model detects septic patients with 39% precision 3.7 hours in advance.

Evaluating audio generation systems, including text-to-music (TTM), text-to-speech (TTS), and text-to-audio (TTA), remains challenging due to the subjective and multi-dimensional nature of human perception. Existing methods treat mean opinion score (MOS) prediction as a regression problem, but standard regression losses overlook the relativity of perceptual judgments. To address this limitation, we introduce QAMRO, a novel Quality-aware Adaptive Margin Ranking Optimization framework that seamlessly integrates regression objectives from different perspectives, aiming to highlight perceptual differences and prioritize accurate ratings. Our framework leverages pre-trained audio-text models such as CLAP and Audiobox-Aesthetics, and is trained exclusively on the official AudioMOS Challenge 2025 dataset. It demonstrates superior alignment with human evaluations across all dimensions, significantly outperforming robust baseline models.

Despite rapid advancements in TTS models, a consistent and robust human evaluation framework is still lacking. For example, MOS tests fail to differentiate between similar models, and CMOS's pairwise comparisons are time-intensive. The MUSHRA test is a promising alternative for evaluating multiple TTS systems simultaneously, but in this work we show that its reliance on matching human reference speech unduly penalises the scores of modern TTS systems that can exceed human speech quality. More specifically, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the MUSHRA test, focusing on its sensitivity to factors such as rater variability, listener fatigue, and reference bias. Based on our extensive evaluation involving 471 human listeners across Hindi and Tamil we identify two primary shortcomings: (i) reference-matching bias, where raters are unduly influenced by the human reference, and (ii) judgement ambiguity, arising from a lack of clear fine-grained guidelines. To address these issues, we propose two refined variants of the MUSHRA test. The first variant enables fairer ratings for synthesized samples that surpass human reference quality. The second variant reduces ambiguity, as indicated by the relatively lower variance across raters. By combining these approaches, we achieve both more reliable and more fine-grained assessments. We also release MANGO, a massive dataset of 47,100 human ratings, the first-of-its-kind collection for Indian languages, aiding in analyzing human preferences and developing automatic metrics for evaluating TTS systems.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

The relationships between workload and fatigue or sleepiness are investigated through the analysis of rosters and responses to questionnaires from Brazilian aircrews, taken from Fadig\^ometro database. The approach includes temporal markers - coinciding with Samn-Perelli (SP) and Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) responses - where SAFTE-FAST model outcomes are calculated. The model results follow the increase of fatigue and sleepiness perceptions during the dawn (0h00 to 05h59), but underestimate the self-rated scores during the evening (18h00 to 23h59). On the other hand, the KSS scores fit the relative risk of pilot errors, representing a reasonable proxy for risk assessment. Linear relationships obtained between workload metrics, computed within 168-hours prior to the responses, and self-rated SP and KSS scores provide a consistent method to estimate accumulated fatigue and sleepiness. Considering 7149 rosters of 2023, the duty time (DT), the number of flight sectors (N_{CREW}) and the sum of flight sectors with sit periods longer than one hour (N_{CREW}+N_{SIT}) are associated with 70.1%/60.6% of the highest predicted scores of SP/KSS. Applying the mitigations DTleq44h, N_{CREW}leq15 and N_{CREW}+N_{SIT}leq19 for every 168-hour interval yields a significant decrease in the higher values of SP/KSS with minimal impact on aircrew productivity.

A pooling mechanism is essential for mean opinion score (MOS) prediction, facilitating the transformation of variable-length audio features into a concise fixed-size representation that effectively encodes speech quality. Existing pooling methods typically operate at a singular granularity, concentrating either on a comprehensive global perspective or a detailed frame-level analysis, which may overlook complementary perceptual insights. To address this limitation, we introduce the Dual-Resolution Attentive Statistics Pooling (DRASP) framework. DRASP integrates both coarse-grained, global statistical summaries and fine-grained, attentive analyses of perceptually significant segments. This dual-view architecture empowers our model to formulate a more thorough and robust representation, capturing both the overarching structural context and salient local details concurrently. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and strong generalization ability of the proposed framework. It consistently outperforms various baseline methods across diverse datasets (MusicEval and AES-Natural), MOS prediction backbones (including a CLAP-based model and AudioBox-Aesthetics), and different audio generation systems, achieving a relative improvement of 10.39% in system-level Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) over the widely-used average pooling approach.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Modern deep learning systems are typically deployed as open-loop function approximators: they map inputs to outputs in a single pass, without regulating how much computation or explanatory effort is spent on a given case. In safety-critical settings, this is brittle: easy and ambiguous inputs receive identical processing, and uncertainty is only read off retrospectively from raw probabilities. We introduce the Surgical Cognitive Interpreter (SCI), a lightweight closed-loop metacognitive control layer that wraps an existing stochastic model and turns prediction into an iterative process. SCI monitors a scalar interpretive state SP(t), here instantiated as a normalized entropy-based confidence signal, and adaptively decides whether to stop, continue sampling, or abstain. The goal is not to improve accuracy per se, but to regulate interpretive error ΔSP and expose a safety signal that tracks when the underlying model is likely to fail. We instantiate SCI around Monte Carlo dropout classifiers in three domains: vision (MNIST digits), medical time series (MIT-BIH arrhythmia), and industrial condition monitoring (rolling-element bearings). In all cases, the controller allocates more inference steps to misclassified inputs than to correct ones (up to about 3-4x on MNIST and bearings, and 1.4x on MIT-BIH). The resulting ΔSP acts as a usable safety signal for detecting misclassifications (AUROC 0.63 on MNIST, 0.70 on MIT-BIH, 0.86 on bearings). Code and reproducibility: https://github.com/vishal-1344/sci

Neural end-to-end TTS can generate very high-quality synthesized speech, and even close to human recording within similar domain text. However, it performs unsatisfactory when scaling it to challenging test sets. One concern is that the encoder-decoder with attention-based network adopts autoregressive generative sequence model with the limitation of "exposure bias" To address this issue, we propose two novel methods, which learn to predict future by improving agreement between forward and backward decoding sequence. The first one is achieved by introducing divergence regularization terms into model training objective to reduce the mismatch between two directional models, namely L2R and R2L (which generates targets from left-to-right and right-to-left, respectively). While the second one operates on decoder-level and exploits the future information during decoding. In addition, we employ a joint training strategy to allow forward and backward decoding to improve each other in an interactive process. Experimental results show our proposed methods especially the second one (bidirectional decoder regularization), leads a significantly improvement on both robustness and overall naturalness, as outperforming baseline (the revised version of Tacotron2) with a MOS gap of 0.14 in a challenging test, and achieving close to human quality (4.42 vs. 4.49 in MOS) on general test.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

Today's most advanced multimodal models remain proprietary. The strongest open-weight models rely heavily on synthetic data from proprietary VLMs to achieve good performance, effectively distilling these closed models into open ones. As a result, the community is still missing foundational knowledge about how to build performant VLMs from scratch. We present Molmo, a new family of VLMs that are state-of-the-art in their class of openness. Our key innovation is a novel, highly detailed image caption dataset collected entirely from human annotators using speech-based descriptions. To enable a wide array of user interactions, we also introduce a diverse dataset mixture for fine-tuning that includes in-the-wild Q&A and innovative 2D pointing data. The success of our approach relies on careful choices for the model architecture details, a well-tuned training pipeline, and, most critically, the quality of our newly collected datasets, all of which will be released. The best-in-class 72B model within the Molmo family not only outperforms others in the class of open weight and data models but also compares favorably against proprietary systems like GPT-4o, Claude 3.5, and Gemini 1.5 on both academic benchmarks and human evaluation. We will be releasing all of our model weights, captioning and fine-tuning data, and source code in the near future. Select model weights, inference code, and demo are available at https://molmo.allenai.org.

Real-world classifiers can benefit from the option of abstaining from predicting on samples where they have low confidence. Such abstention is particularly useful on samples which are close to the learned decision boundary, or which are outliers with respect to the training sample. These settings have been the subject of extensive but disjoint study in the selective classification (SC) and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection literature. Recent work on selective classification with OOD detection (SCOD) has argued for the unified study of these problems; however, the formal underpinnings of this problem are still nascent, and existing techniques are heuristic in nature. In this paper, we propose new plugin estimators for SCOD that are theoretically grounded, effective, and generalise existing approaches from the SC and OOD detection literature. In the course of our analysis, we formally explicate how na\"{i}ve use of existing SC and OOD detection baselines may be inadequate for SCOD. We empirically demonstrate that our approaches yields competitive SC and OOD detection performance compared to baselines from both literatures.

Outlier detection (OD) has a vast literature as it finds numerous real-world applications. Being an unsupervised task, model selection is a key bottleneck for OD without label supervision. Despite a long list of available OD algorithms with tunable hyperparameters, the lack of systematic approaches for unsupervised algorithm and hyperparameter selection limits their effective use in practice. In this paper, we present FoMo-0D, a pre-trained Foundation Model for zero/0-shot OD on tabular data, which bypasses the hurdle of model selection altogether. Having been pre-trained on synthetic data, FoMo-0D can directly predict the (outlier/inlier) label of test samples without parameter fine-tuning -- requiring no labeled data, and no additional training or hyperparameter tuning when given a new task. Extensive experiments on 57 real-world datasets against 26 baselines show that FoMo-0D is highly competitive; outperforming the majority of the baselines with no statistically significant difference from the 2nd best method. Further, FoMo-0D is efficient in inference time requiring only 7.7 ms per sample on average, with at least 7x speed-up compared to previous methods. To facilitate future research, our implementations for data synthesis and pre-training as well as model checkpoints are openly available at https://github.com/A-Chicharito-S/FoMo-0D.

We introduce MURA, a large dataset of musculoskeletal radiographs containing 40,561 images from 14,863 studies, where each study is manually labeled by radiologists as either normal or abnormal. To evaluate models robustly and to get an estimate of radiologist performance, we collect additional labels from six board-certified Stanford radiologists on the test set, consisting of 207 musculoskeletal studies. On this test set, the majority vote of a group of three radiologists serves as gold standard. We train a 169-layer DenseNet baseline model to detect and localize abnormalities. Our model achieves an AUROC of 0.929, with an operating point of 0.815 sensitivity and 0.887 specificity. We compare our model and radiologists on the Cohen's kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement of our model and of each radiologist with the gold standard. Model performance is comparable to the best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on finger and wrist studies. However, model performance is lower than best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on elbow, forearm, hand, humerus, and shoulder studies. We believe that the task is a good challenge for future research. To encourage advances, we have made our dataset freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/mura .

Pre-routing slack prediction remains a critical area of research in Electronic Design Automation (EDA). Despite numerous machine learning-based approaches targeting this task, there is still a lack of a truly end-to-end framework that engineers can use to obtain TNS/WNS metrics from raw circuit data at the placement stage. Existing works have demonstrated effectiveness in Arrival Time (AT) prediction but lack a mechanism for Required Arrival Time (RAT) prediction, which is essential for slack prediction and obtaining TNS/WNS metrics. In this work, we propose E2ESlack, an end-to-end graph-based framework for pre-routing slack prediction. The framework includes a TimingParser that supports DEF, SDF and LIB files for feature extraction and graph construction, an arrival time prediction model and a fast RAT estimation module. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work capable of predicting path-level slacks at the pre-routing stage. We perform extensive experiments and demonstrate that our proposed RAT estimation method outperforms the SOTA ML-based prediction method and also pre-routing STA tool. Additionally, the proposed E2ESlack framework achieves TNS/WNS values comparable to post-routing STA results while saving up to 23x runtime.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

In this paper, we present SCOREQ, a novel approach for speech quality prediction. SCOREQ is a triplet loss function for contrastive regression that addresses the domain generalisation shortcoming exhibited by state of the art no-reference speech quality metrics. In the paper we: (i) illustrate the problem of L2 loss training failing at capturing the continuous nature of the mean opinion score (MOS) labels; (ii) demonstrate the lack of generalisation through a benchmarking evaluation across several speech domains; (iii) outline our approach and explore the impact of the architectural design decisions through incremental evaluation; (iv) evaluate the final model against state of the art models for a wide variety of data and domains. The results show that the lack of generalisation observed in state of the art speech quality metrics is addressed by SCOREQ. We conclude that using a triplet loss function for contrastive regression improves generalisation for speech quality prediction models but also has potential utility across a wide range of applications using regression-based predictive models.

Multi-sensor ML models for EO aim to enhance prediction accuracy by integrating data from various sources. However, the presence of missing data poses a significant challenge, particularly in non-persistent sensors that can be affected by external factors. Existing literature has explored strategies like temporal dropout and sensor-invariant models to address the generalization to missing data issues. Inspired by these works, we study two novel methods tailored for multi-sensor scenarios, namely Input Sensor Dropout (ISensD) and Ensemble Sensor Invariant (ESensI). Through experimentation on three multi-sensor temporal EO datasets, we demonstrate that these methods effectively increase the robustness of model predictions to missing sensors. Particularly, we focus on how the predictive performance of models drops when sensors are missing at different levels. We observe that ensemble multi-sensor models are the most robust to the lack of sensors. In addition, the sensor dropout component in ISensD shows promising robustness results.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

With the rapid growth in the scale of pre-trained foundation models, parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques have gained significant attention, among which Adapter Tuning is the most widely used. Despite achieving efficiency, Adapter Tuning still underperforms full fine-tuning, and the performance improves at the cost of an increase in parameters. Recent efforts address this issue by pruning the original adapters, but it also introduces training instability and suboptimal performance on certain datasets. Motivated by this, we propose Mixture of Sparse Adapters, or MoSA, as a novel Adapter Tuning method to fully unleash the potential of each parameter in the adapter. We first split the standard adapter into multiple non-overlapping modules, then stochastically activate modules for sparse training, and finally merge them to form a complete adapter after tuning. In this way, MoSA can achieve significantly better performance than standard adapters without any additional computational or storage overhead. Furthermore, we propose a hierarchical sparse strategy to better leverage limited training data. Extensive experiments on a series of 27 visual tasks demonstrate that MoSA consistently outperforms other Adapter Tuning methods as well as other baselines by a significant margin. Furthermore, in two challenging scenarios with low-resource and multi-task settings, MoSA achieves satisfactory results, further demonstrating the effectiveness of our design. Our code will be released.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

Structure-Based molecule optimization (SBMO) aims to optimize molecules with both continuous coordinates and discrete types against protein targets. A promising direction is to exert gradient guidance on generative models given its remarkable success in images, but it is challenging to guide discrete data and risks inconsistencies between modalities. To this end, we leverage a continuous and differentiable space derived through Bayesian inference, presenting Molecule Joint Optimization (MolJO), the gradient-based SBMO framework that facilitates joint guidance signals across different modalities while preserving SE(3)-equivariance. We introduce a novel backward correction strategy that optimizes within a sliding window of the past histories, allowing for a seamless trade-off between explore-and-exploit during optimization. MolJO achieves state-of-the-art performance on CrossDocked2020 benchmark (Success Rate 51.3%, Vina Dock -9.05 and SA 0.78), more than 4x improvement in Success Rate compared to the gradient-based counterpart, and 2x "Me-Better" Ratio as much as 3D baselines. Furthermore, we extend MolJO to a wide range of optimization settings, including multi-objective optimization and challenging tasks in drug design such as R-group optimization and scaffold hopping, further underscoring its versatility. Code is available at https://github.com/AlgoMole/MolCRAFT.

This paper describes the Microsoft end-to-end neural text to speech (TTS) system: DelightfulTTS for Blizzard Challenge 2021. The goal of this challenge is to synthesize natural and high-quality speech from text, and we approach this goal in two perspectives: The first is to directly model and generate waveform in 48 kHz sampling rate, which brings higher perception quality than previous systems with 16 kHz or 24 kHz sampling rate; The second is to model the variation information in speech through a systematic design, which improves the prosody and naturalness. Specifically, for 48 kHz modeling, we predict 16 kHz mel-spectrogram in acoustic model, and propose a vocoder called HiFiNet to directly generate 48 kHz waveform from predicted 16 kHz mel-spectrogram, which can better trade off training efficiency, modelling stability and voice quality. We model variation information systematically from both explicit (speaker ID, language ID, pitch and duration) and implicit (utterance-level and phoneme-level prosody) perspectives: 1) For speaker and language ID, we use lookup embedding in training and inference; 2) For pitch and duration, we extract the values from paired text-speech data in training and use two predictors to predict the values in inference; 3) For utterance-level and phoneme-level prosody, we use two reference encoders to extract the values in training, and use two separate predictors to predict the values in inference. Additionally, we introduce an improved Conformer block to better model the local and global dependency in acoustic model. For task SH1, DelightfulTTS achieves 4.17 mean score in MOS test and 4.35 in SMOS test, which indicates the effectiveness of our proposed system

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

This research introduces an enhanced version of the multi-objective speech assessment model--MOSA-Net+, by leveraging the acoustic features from Whisper, a large-scaled weakly supervised model. We first investigate the effectiveness of Whisper in deploying a more robust speech assessment model. After that, we explore combining representations from Whisper and SSL models. The experimental results reveal that Whisper's embedding features can contribute to more accurate prediction performance. Moreover, combining the embedding features from Whisper and SSL models only leads to marginal improvement. As compared to intrusive methods, MOSA-Net, and other SSL-based speech assessment models, MOSA-Net+ yields notable improvements in estimating subjective quality and intelligibility scores across all evaluation metrics in Taiwan Mandarin Hearing In Noise test - Quality & Intelligibility (TMHINT-QI) dataset. To further validate its robustness, MOSA-Net+ was tested in the noisy-and-enhanced track of the VoiceMOS Challenge 2023, where it obtained the top-ranked performance among nine systems.

LLMs have become increasingly capable at accomplishing a range of specialized-tasks and can be utilized to expand equitable access to medical knowledge. Most medical LLMs have involved extensive fine-tuning, leveraging specialized medical data and significant, thus costly, amounts of computational power. Many of the top performing LLMs are proprietary and their access is limited to very few research groups. However, open-source (OS) models represent a key area of growth for medical LLMs due to significant improvements in performance and an inherent ability to provide the transparency and compliance required in healthcare. We present OpenMedLM, a prompting platform which delivers state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance for OS LLMs on medical benchmarks. We evaluated a range of OS foundation LLMs (7B-70B) on four medical benchmarks (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU medical-subset). We employed a series of prompting strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought (random selection and kNN selection), and ensemble/self-consistency voting. We found that OpenMedLM delivers OS SOTA results on three common medical LLM benchmarks, surpassing the previous best performing OS models that leveraged computationally costly extensive fine-tuning. The model delivers a 72.6% accuracy on the MedQA benchmark, outperforming the previous SOTA by 2.4%, and achieves 81.7% accuracy on the MMLU medical-subset, establishing itself as the first OS LLM to surpass 80% accuracy on this benchmark. Our results highlight medical-specific emergent properties in OS LLMs which have not yet been documented to date elsewhere, and showcase the benefits of further leveraging prompt engineering to improve the performance of accessible LLMs for medical applications.

Background: We evaluate SAM 2 for surgical scene understanding by examining its semantic segmentation capabilities for organs/tissues both in zero-shot scenarios and after fine-tuning. Methods: We utilized five public datasets to evaluate and fine-tune SAM 2 for segmenting anatomical tissues in surgical videos/images. Fine-tuning was applied to the image encoder and mask decoder. We limited training subsets from 50 to 400 samples per class to better model real-world constraints with data acquisition. The impact of dataset size on fine-tuning performance was evaluated with weighted mean Dice coefficient (WMDC), and the results were also compared against previously reported state-of-the-art (SOTA) results. Results: SurgiSAM 2, a fine-tuned SAM 2 model, demonstrated significant improvements in segmentation performance, achieving a 17.9% relative WMDC gain compared to the baseline SAM 2. Increasing prompt points from 1 to 10 and training data scale from 50/class to 400/class enhanced performance; the best WMDC of 0.92 on the validation subset was achieved with 10 prompt points and 400 samples per class. On the test subset, this model outperformed prior SOTA methods in 24/30 (80%) of the classes with a WMDC of 0.91 using 10-point prompts. Notably, SurgiSAM 2 generalized effectively to unseen organ classes, achieving SOTA on 7/9 (77.8%) of them. Conclusion: SAM 2 achieves remarkable zero-shot and fine-tuned performance for surgical scene segmentation, surpassing prior SOTA models across several organ classes of diverse datasets. This suggests immense potential for enabling automated/semi-automated annotation pipelines, thereby decreasing the burden of annotations facilitating several surgical applications.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Most of the current transformer-based chemical language models are pre-trained on millions to billions of molecules. However, the improvement from such scaling in dataset size is not confidently linked to improved molecular property prediction. The aim of this study is to investigate and overcome some of the limitations of transformer models in predicting molecular properties. Specifically, we examine the impact of pre-training dataset size and diversity on the performance of transformer models and investigate the use of domain adaptation as a technique for improving model performance. First, our findings indicate that increasing pretraining dataset size beyond 400K molecules from the GuacaMol dataset does not result in a significant improvement on four ADME endpoints, namely, solubility, permeability, microsomal stability, and plasma protein binding. Second, our results demonstrate that using domain adaptation by further training the transformer model on a small set of domain-relevant molecules, i.e., a few hundred to a few thousand, using multi-task regression of physicochemical properties was sufficient to significantly improve performance for three out of the four investigated ADME endpoints (P-value < 0.001). Finally, we observe that a model pre-trained on 400K molecules and domain adopted on a few hundred/thousand molecules performs similarly (P-value > 0.05) to more complicated transformer models like MolBERT(pre-trained on 1.3M molecules) and MolFormer (pre-trained on 100M molecules). A comparison to a random forest model trained on basic physicochemical properties showed similar performance to the examined transformer models. We believe that current transformer models can be improved through further systematic analysis of pre-training and downstream data, pre-training objectives, and scaling laws, ultimately leading to better and more helpful models.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Speech synthesis has come a long way as current text-to-speech (TTS) models can now generate natural human-sounding speech. However, most of the TTS research focuses on using adult speech data and there has been very limited work done on child speech synthesis. This study developed and validated a training pipeline for fine-tuning state-of-the-art (SOTA) neural TTS models using child speech datasets. This approach adopts a multi-speaker TTS retuning workflow to provide a transfer-learning pipeline. A publicly available child speech dataset was cleaned to provide a smaller subset of approximately 19 hours, which formed the basis of our fine-tuning experiments. Both subjective and objective evaluations were performed using a pretrained MOSNet for objective evaluation and a novel subjective framework for mean opinion score (MOS) evaluations. Subjective evaluations achieved the MOS of 3.95 for speech intelligibility, 3.89 for voice naturalness, and 3.96 for voice consistency. Objective evaluation using a pretrained MOSNet showed a strong correlation between real and synthetic child voices. Speaker similarity was also verified by calculating the cosine similarity between the embeddings of utterances. An automatic speech recognition (ASR) model is also used to provide a word error rate (WER) comparison between the real and synthetic child voices. The final trained TTS model was able to synthesize child-like speech from reference audio samples as short as 5 seconds.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code-related tasks, such as code understanding and code generation. However, an equally important yet underexplored question is whether LLMs can serve as general-purpose surrogate code executors, to predict the output and behavior of a program without actually running it. To systematically investigate this capability, we introduce SURGE, a comprehensive benchmark covering eight key aspects: multi-language programming tasks, competition-level programming problems, repository-level code analysis, high-cost scientific computing, time-complexity-intensive algorithms, buggy code analysis, programs dependent on specific compilers or execution environments, and formal mathematical proof verification. We evaluate multiple open-source and proprietary LLMs on SURGE and conduct a scaling study to analyze the impact of model size and training data scale on surrogate execution accuracy. Additionally, we categorize model prediction errors and explore potential areas for improvement. Our findings indicate that while LLMs can predict code execution results in certain cases, they exhibit limitations in general-purpose surrogate execution. This study provides empirical insights into the feasibility of using LLMs as surrogate code executors. Code and dataset are released at https://github.com/Imbernoulli/SURGE.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

The usage of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems is limited by our ability to guarantee their correct behavior. Runtime monitors are components aiming to identify unsafe predictions and discard them before they can lead to catastrophic consequences. Several recent works on runtime monitoring have focused on out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, i.e., identifying inputs that are different from the training data. In this work, we argue that OOD detection is not a well-suited framework to design efficient runtime monitors and that it is more relevant to evaluate monitors based on their ability to discard incorrect predictions. We call this setting out-ofmodel-scope detection and discuss the conceptual differences with OOD. We also conduct extensive experiments on popular datasets from the literature to show that studying monitors in the OOD setting can be misleading: 1. very good OOD results can give a false impression of safety, 2. comparison under the OOD setting does not allow identifying the best monitor to detect errors. Finally, we also show that removing erroneous training data samples helps to train better monitors.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

Survey data can contain a high number of features while having a comparatively low quantity of examples. Machine learning models that attempt to predict outcomes from survey data under these conditions can overfit and result in poor generalizability. One remedy to this issue is feature selection, which attempts to select an optimal subset of features to learn upon. A relatively unexplored source of information in the feature selection process is the usage of textual names of features, which may be semantically indicative of which features are relevant to a target outcome. The relationships between feature names and target names can be evaluated using language models (LMs) to produce semantic textual similarity (STS) scores, which can then be used to select features. We examine the performance using STS to select features directly and in the minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR) algorithm. The performance of STS as a feature selection metric is evaluated against preliminary survey data collected as a part of a clinical study on persistent post-surgical pain (PPSP). The results suggest that features selected with STS can result in higher performance models compared to traditional feature selection algorithms.

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

We study code-to-metric regression: predicting numeric outcomes of code executions, a challenging task due to the open-ended nature of programming languages. While prior methods have resorted to heavy and domain-specific feature engineering, we show that a single unified Regression Language Model (RLM) can simultaneously predict directly from text, (i) the memory footprint of code across multiple high-level languages such as Python and C++, (ii) the latency of Triton GPU kernels, and (iii) the accuracy and speed of trained neural networks represented in ONNX. In particular, a relatively small 300M parameter RLM initialized from T5Gemma, obtains > 0.9 Spearman-rank on competitive programming submissions from APPS, and a single unified model achieves > 0.5 average Spearman-rank across 17 separate languages from CodeNet. Furthermore, the RLM can obtain the highest average Kendall-Tau of 0.46 on five classic NAS design spaces previously dominated by graph neural networks, and simultaneously predict architecture latencies on numerous hardware platforms.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), applying large language models (LLMs) to Operations Research (OR) problem-solving has attracted increasing attention. Most existing approaches attempt to improve OR problem-solving through prompt engineering or fine-tuning strategies for LLMs. However, these methods are fundamentally constrained by the limited capabilities of non-reasoning LLMs. To overcome these limitations, we propose OR-LLM-Agent, an AI agent built on reasoning LLMs for automated OR problem solving. The agent decomposes the task into three sequential stages: mathematical modeling, code generation, and debugging. Each task is handled by a dedicated sub-agent, which enables more targeted reasoning. We also construct BWOR, a high-quality dataset for evaluating LLM performance on OR tasks. Our analysis shows that existing benchmarks such as NL4OPT, MAMO, and IndustryOR suffer from certain issues, making them less suitable for reliably evaluating LLM performance. In contrast, BWOR provides a more consistent and discriminative assessment of model capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate that OR-LLM-Agent outperforms advanced methods, including GPT-o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and ORLM, by at least 7% in accuracy. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of task decomposition for OR problem solving.

In recent years, the potential applications of machine learning to Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) have spurred interest in data sets that can be used to develop data-driven tools. This paper introduces a novel dataset recorded during ex vivo pseudo-cholecystectomy procedures on pig livers, utilizing the da Vinci Research Kit (dVRK). Unlike current datasets, ours bridges a critical gap by offering not only full kinematic data but also capturing all pedal inputs used during the procedure and providing a time-stamped record of the endoscope's movements. Contributed by seven surgeons, this data set introduces a new dimension to surgical robotics research, allowing the creation of advanced models for automating console functionalities. Our work addresses the existing limitation of incomplete recordings and imprecise kinematic data, common in other datasets. By introducing two models, dedicated to predicting clutch usage and camera activation, we highlight the dataset's potential for advancing automation in surgical robotics. The comparison of methodologies and time windows provides insights into the models' boundaries and limitations.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

The performance of the reward model (RM) is a critical factor in improving the effectiveness of the large language model (LLM) during alignment fine-tuning. There remain two challenges in RM training: 1) training the same RM using various categories of data may cause its generalization performance to suffer from multi-task disturbance, and 2) the human annotation consistency rate is generally only 60% to 75%, causing training data to contain a lot of noise. To tackle these two challenges, we introduced the idea of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) into the field of RM for the first time. We propose the Double-Layer MoE RM (DMoERM). The outer layer MoE is a sparse model. After classifying an input into task categories, we route it to the corresponding inner layer task-specific model. The inner layer MoE is a dense model. We decompose the specific task into multiple capability dimensions and individually fine-tune a LoRA expert on each one. Their outputs are then synthesized by an MLP to compute the final rewards. To minimize costs, we call a public LLM API to obtain the capability preference labels. The validation on manually labeled datasets confirms that our model attains superior consistency with human preference and outstrips advanced generative approaches. Meanwhile, through BoN sampling and RL experiments, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art ensemble methods of RM and mitigates the overoptimization problem. Our code and dataset are available at: https://github.com/quanshr/DMoERM-v1.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Subjective speech quality assessment (SSQA) is critical for evaluating speech samples as perceived by human listeners. While model-based SSQA has enjoyed great success thanks to the development of deep neural networks (DNNs), generalization remains a key challenge, especially for unseen, out-of-domain data. To benchmark the generalization abilities of SSQA models, we present MOS-Bench, a diverse collection of datasets. In addition, we also introduce SHEET, an open-source toolkit containing complete recipes to conduct SSQA experiments. We provided benchmark results for MOS-Bench, and we also explored multi-dataset training to enhance generalization. Additionally, we proposed a new performance metric, best score difference/ratio, and used latent space visualizations to explain model behavior, offering valuable insights for future research.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Medical image segmentation aims to delineate the anatomical or pathological structures of interest, playing a crucial role in clinical diagnosis. A substantial amount of high-quality annotated data is crucial for constructing high-precision deep segmentation models. However, medical annotation is highly cumbersome and time-consuming, especially for medical videos or 3D volumes, due to the huge labeling space and poor inter-frame consistency. Recently, a fundamental task named Moving Object Segmentation (MOS) has made significant advancements in natural images. Its objective is to delineate moving objects from the background within image sequences, requiring only minimal annotations. In this paper, we propose the first foundation model, named iMOS, for MOS in medical images. Extensive experiments on a large multi-modal medical dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed iMOS. Specifically, with the annotation of only a small number of images in the sequence, iMOS can achieve satisfactory tracking and segmentation performance of moving objects throughout the entire sequence in bi-directions. We hope that the proposed iMOS can help accelerate the annotation speed of experts, and boost the development of medical foundation models.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

In recent years, the development of robust multi-source models has emerged in the Earth Observation (EO) field. These are models that leverage data from diverse sources to improve predictive accuracy when there is missing data. Despite these advancements, the factors influencing the varying effectiveness of such models remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluate the predictive performance of six state-of-the-art multi-source models in predicting scenarios where either a single data source is missing or only a single source is available. Our analysis reveals that the efficacy of these models is intricately tied to the nature of the task, the complementarity among data sources, and the model design. Surprisingly, we observe instances where the removal of certain data sources leads to improved predictive performance, challenging the assumption that incorporating all available data is always beneficial. These findings prompt critical reflections on model complexity and the necessity of all collected data sources, potentially shaping the way for more streamlined approaches in EO applications.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have undergone a significant transformation, marked by a rapid rise in both their popularity and capabilities. Leading this evolution are proprietary LLMs like GPT-4 and GPT-o1, which have captured widespread attention in the AI community due to their remarkable performance and versatility. Simultaneously, open-source LLMs, such as LLaMA and Mistral, have made great contributions to the ever-increasing popularity of LLMs due to the ease to customize and deploy the models across diverse applications. Although open-source LLMs present unprecedented opportunities for innovation and research, the commercialization of LLMs has raised concerns about transparency, reproducibility, and safety. Many open-source LLMs fail to meet fundamental transparency requirements by withholding essential components like training code and data, and some use restrictive licenses whilst claiming to be "open-source," which may hinder further innovations on LLMs. To mitigate this issue, we introduce Moxin 7B, a fully open-source LLM developed in accordance with the Model Openness Framework (MOF), a ranked classification system that evaluates AI models based on model completeness and openness, adhering to principles of open science, open source, open data, and open access. Our model achieves the highest MOF classification level of "open science" through the comprehensive release of pre-training code and configurations, training and fine-tuning datasets, and intermediate and final checkpoints. Experiments show that our model achieves superior performance in zero-shot evaluation compared with popular 7B models and performs competitively in few-shot evaluation.

Prototype-based neural networks offer interpretable predictions by comparing inputs to learned, representative signal patterns anchored in training data. While such models have shown promise in the classification of physiological data, it remains unclear whether their prototypes capture an underlying structure that aligns with broader clinical phenotypes. We use a prototype-based deep learning model trained for multi-label ECG classification using the PTB-XL dataset. Then without modification we performed inference on the MIMIC-IV clinical database. We assess whether individual prototypes, trained solely for classification, are associated with hospital discharge diagnoses in the form of phecodes in this external population. Individual prototypes demonstrate significantly stronger and more specific associations with clinical outcomes compared to the classifier's class predictions, NLP-extracted concepts, or broader prototype classes across all phecode categories. Prototype classes with mixed significance patterns exhibit significantly greater intra-class distances (p < 0.0001), indicating the model learned to differentiate clinically meaningful variations within diagnostic categories. The prototypes achieve strong predictive performance across diverse conditions, with AUCs ranging from 0.89 for atrial fibrillation to 0.91 for heart failure, while also showing substantial signal for non-cardiac conditions such as sepsis and renal disease. These findings suggest that prototype-based models can support interpretable digital phenotyping from physiologic time-series data, providing transferable intermediate phenotypes that capture clinically meaningful physiologic signatures beyond their original training objectives.

Determining the stage of decomposition (SOD) is crucial for estimating the postmortem interval and identifying human remains. Currently, labor-intensive manual scoring methods are used for this purpose, but they are subjective and do not scale for the emerging large-scale archival collections of human decomposition photos. This study explores the feasibility of automating two common human decomposition scoring methods proposed by Megyesi and Gelderman using artificial intelligence (AI). We evaluated two popular deep learning models, Inception V3 and Xception, by training them on a large dataset of human decomposition images to classify the SOD for different anatomical regions, including the head, torso, and limbs. Additionally, an interrater study was conducted to assess the reliability of the AI models compared to human forensic examiners for SOD identification. The Xception model achieved the best classification performance, with macro-averaged F1 scores of .878, .881, and .702 for the head, torso, and limbs when predicting Megyesi's SODs, and .872, .875, and .76 for the head, torso, and limbs when predicting Gelderman's SODs. The interrater study results supported AI's ability to determine the SOD at a reliability level comparable to a human expert. This work demonstrates the potential of AI models trained on a large dataset of human decomposition images to automate SOD identification.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

This paper introduces RyanSpeech, a new speech corpus for research on automated text-to-speech (TTS) systems. Publicly available TTS corpora are often noisy, recorded with multiple speakers, or lack quality male speech data. In order to meet the need for a high quality, publicly available male speech corpus within the field of speech recognition, we have designed and created RyanSpeech which contains textual materials from real-world conversational settings. These materials contain over 10 hours of a professional male voice actor's speech recorded at 44.1 kHz. This corpus's design and pipeline make RyanSpeech ideal for developing TTS systems in real-world applications. To provide a baseline for future research, protocols, and benchmarks, we trained 4 state-of-the-art speech models and a vocoder on RyanSpeech. The results show 3.36 in mean opinion scores (MOS) in our best model. We have made both the corpus and trained models for public use.

Biometric capture devices have been utilised to estimate a person's alertness through near-infrared iris images, expanding their use beyond just biometric recognition. However, capturing a substantial number of corresponding images related to alcohol consumption, drug use, and sleep deprivation to create a dataset for training an AI model presents a significant challenge. Typically, a large quantity of images is required to effectively implement a deep learning approach. Currently, training downstream models with a huge number of images based on foundational models provides a real opportunity to enhance this area, thanks to the generalisation capabilities of self-supervised models. This work examines the application of deep learning and foundational models in predicting fitness for duty, which is defined as the subject condition related to determining the alertness for work.

Modeling the errors of a speech recognizer can help simulate errorful recognized speech data from plain text, which has proven useful for tasks like discriminative language modeling, improving robustness of NLP systems, where limited or even no audio data is available at train time. Previous work typically considered replicating behavior of GMM-HMM based systems, but the behavior of more modern posterior-based neural network acoustic models is not the same and requires adjustments to the error prediction model. In this work, we extend a prior phonetic confusion based model for predicting speech recognition errors in two ways: first, we introduce a sampling-based paradigm that better simulates the behavior of a posterior-based acoustic model. Second, we investigate replacing the confusion matrix with a sequence-to-sequence model in order to introduce context dependency into the prediction. We evaluate the error predictors in two ways: first by predicting the errors made by a Switchboard ASR system on unseen data (Fisher), and then using that same predictor to estimate the behavior of an unrelated cloud-based ASR system on a novel task. Sampling greatly improves predictive accuracy within a 100-guess paradigm, while the sequence model performs similarly to the confusion matrix.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

The maintenance risks of open source software (OSS) projects pose significant threats to the quality, security, and resilience of modern software supply chains. While prior research has proposed diverse approaches for predicting OSS maintenance risk -- leveraging signals ranging from surface features (e.g., stars, commits) to social network analyses and behavioral patterns -- existing methods often suffer from ambiguous operational definitions, limited interpretability, and datasets of insufficient scale or generalizability. In this work, we introduce ``maintenance cessation'', grounded in both explicit archival status and rigorous semantic analysis of project documentation. Building on this foundation, we curate a large-scale, longitudinal dataset of 115,466 GitHub repositories -- encompassing 57,733 confirmed cessation events -- complemented by comprehensive, timeline-based behavioral features. We propose an integrated, multi-perspective feature framework for predicting maintenance cessation, systematically combining user-centric features, maintainer-centric features and project evolution features. AFT survival analysis demonstrates a high C-index (0.846), substantially outperforming models relying only on surface features. Feature ablation and SHAP analysis further confirm the effectiveness and interpretability of our approach. Finally, we demonstrate real-world applicability by deploying a GBSA classifier in the openEuler ecosystem for proactive package risk screening. Our work establishes a scalable, interpretable foundation for maintenance-risk prediction, enabling reproducible risk management across large-scale open source ecosystems.

Singing voice generation progresses rapidly, yet evaluating singing quality remains a critical challenge. Human subjective assessment, typically in the form of listening tests, is costly and time consuming, while existing objective metrics capture only limited perceptual aspects. In this work, we introduce SingMOS-Pro, a dataset for automatic singing quality assessment. Building on our preview version SingMOS, which provides only overall ratings, SingMOS-Pro expands annotations of the additional part to include lyrics, melody, and overall quality, offering broader coverage and greater diversity. The dataset contains 7,981 singing clips generated by 41 models across 12 datasets, spanning from early systems to recent advances. Each clip receives at least five ratings from professional annotators, ensuring reliability and consistency. Furthermore, we explore how to effectively utilize MOS data annotated under different standards and benchmark several widely used evaluation methods from related tasks on SingMOS-Pro, establishing strong baselines and practical references for future research. The dataset can be accessed at https://huggingface.co/datasets/TangRain/SingMOS-Pro.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

This research investigates how Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can assist in workload allocation strategies by detecting tasks with node affinity operators (referred to as constraint operators), which constrain their execution to a limited number of nodes. Using real-world Google Cluster Data (GCD) workload traces and the AGOCS framework, the study extracts node attributes and task constraints, then analyses them to identify suitable node-task pairings. It focuses on tasks that can be executed on either a single node or fewer than a thousand out of 12.5k nodes in the analysed GCD cluster. Task constraint operators are compacted, pre-processed with one-hot encoding, and used as features in a training dataset. Various ML classifiers, including Artificial Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Ridge Regression, Adaptive Boosting, and Bagging, are fine-tuned and assessed for accuracy and F1-scores. The final ensemble voting classifier model achieved 98% accuracy and a 1.5-1.8% misclassification rate for tasks with a single suitable node.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

This work addresses the development of a database for the automatic assessment of text-to-speech (TTS) systems in Spanish, aiming to improve the accuracy of naturalness prediction models. The dataset consists of 4,326 audio samples from 52 different TTS systems and human voices and is, up to our knowledge, the first of its kind in Spanish. To label the audios, a subjective test was designed based on the ITU-T Rec. P.807 standard and completed by 92 participants. Furthermore, the utility of the collected dataset was validated by training automatic naturalness prediction systems. We explored two approaches: fine-tuning an existing model originally trained for English, and training small downstream networks on top of frozen self-supervised speech models. Our models achieve a mean absolute error of 0.8 on a five-point MOS scale. Further analysis demonstrates the quality and diversity of the developed dataset, and its potential to advance TTS research in Spanish.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

Recently, LoRA has emerged as a crucial technique for fine-tuning large pre-trained models, yet its performance in multi-task learning scenarios often falls short. In contrast, the MoE architecture presents a natural solution to this issue. However, it introduces challenges such as mutual interference of data across multiple domains and knowledge forgetting of various tasks. Additionally, MoE significantly increases the number of parameters, posing a computational cost challenge. Therefore, in this paper, we propose MoSLD, a mixture-of-shared-LoRAs model with a dropout strategy. MoSLD addresses these challenges by sharing the upper projection matrix in LoRA among different experts, encouraging the model to learn general knowledge across tasks, while still allowing the lower projection matrix to focus on the unique features of each task. The application of dropout alleviates the imbalanced update of parameter matrix and mitigates parameter overfitting in LoRA. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model exhibits excellent performance in both single-task and multi-task scenarios, with robust out-of-domain generalization capabilities.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for time series analysis, driven by large-scale pretraining on diverse data corpora. However, time series inherently exhibit heterogeneous information density over time, influenced by system states and signal complexity, presenting significant modeling challenges especially in a zero-shot scenario. Current TSFMs rely on non-adaptive processing pipelines that fail to capture this dynamic nature. For example, common tokenization strategies such as fixed-size patching enforce rigid observational granularity, limiting their ability to adapt to varying information densities. Similarly, conventional positional encodings impose a uniform temporal scale, making it difficult to model diverse periodicities and trends across series. To overcome these limitations, we propose Kairos, a flexible TSFM framework that integrates a dynamic patching tokenizer and an instance-adaptive positional embedding. Kairos adaptively selects tokenization granularity and tailors positional encodings to the unique characteristics of each time series instance. Trained on a large-scale Predictability-Stratified Time Series (PreSTS) corpus comprising over 300 billion time points and adopting a multi-patch prediction strategy in the inference stage, Kairos achieves superior performance with much fewer parameters on two common zero-shot benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and the Time-Series-Library benchmark, consistently outperforming established methods across diverse tasks. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

Extreme activation outliers in Large Language Models (LLMs) critically degrade quantization performance, hindering efficient on-device deployment. While channel-wise operations and adaptive gradient scaling are recognized causes, practical mitigation remains challenging. We introduce Outlier-Safe Pre-Training (OSP), a practical guideline that proactively prevents outlier formation rather than relying on post-hoc mitigation. OSP combines three key innovations: (1) the Muon optimizer, eliminating privileged bases while maintaining training efficiency; (2) Single-Scale RMSNorm, preventing channel-wise amplification; and (3) a learnable embedding projection, redistributing activation magnitudes originating from embedding matrices. We validate OSP by training a 1.4B-parameter model on 1 trillion tokens, which is the first production-scale LLM trained without such outliers. Under aggressive 4-bit quantization, our OSP model achieves a 35.7 average score across 10 benchmarks (compared to 26.5 for an Adam-trained model), with only a 2% training overhead. Remarkably, OSP models exhibit near-zero excess kurtosis (0.04) compared to extreme values (1818.56) in standard models, fundamentally altering LLM quantization behavior. Our work demonstrates that outliers are not inherent to LLMs but are consequences of training strategies, paving the way for more efficient LLM deployment. The source code and pretrained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/Outlier-Safe-Pre-Training.

Prior work in 3D object detection evaluates models using offline metrics like average precision since closed-loop online evaluation on the downstream driving task is costly. However, it is unclear how indicative offline results are of driving performance. In this work, we perform the first empirical evaluation measuring how predictive different detection metrics are of driving performance when detectors are integrated into a full self-driving stack. We conduct extensive experiments on urban driving in the CARLA simulator using 16 object detection models. We find that the nuScenes Detection Score has a higher correlation to driving performance than the widely used average precision metric. In addition, our results call for caution on the exclusive reliance on the emerging class of `planner-centric' metrics.

Recent advances in visual anomaly detection research have seen AUROC and AUPRO scores on public benchmark datasets such as MVTec and VisA converge towards perfect recall, giving the impression that these benchmarks are near-solved. However, high AUROC and AUPRO scores do not always reflect qualitative performance, which limits the validity of these metrics in real-world applications. We argue that the artificial ceiling imposed by the lack of an adequate evaluation metric restrains progression of the field, and it is crucial that we revisit the evaluation metrics used to rate our algorithms. In response, we introduce Per-IMage Overlap (PIMO), a novel metric that addresses the shortcomings of AUROC and AUPRO. PIMO retains the recall-based nature of the existing metrics but introduces two distinctions: the assignment of curves (and respective area under the curve) is per-image, and its X-axis relies solely on normal images. Measuring recall per image simplifies instance score indexing and is more robust to noisy annotations. As we show, it also accelerates computation and enables the usage of statistical tests to compare models. By imposing low tolerance for false positives on normal images, PIMO provides an enhanced model validation procedure and highlights performance variations across datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that PIMO offers practical advantages and nuanced performance insights that redefine anomaly detection benchmarks -- notably challenging the perception that MVTec AD and VisA datasets have been solved by contemporary models. Available on GitHub: https://github.com/jpcbertoldo/aupimo.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

This paper presents our approach to accelerate computer architecture simulation by leveraging machine learning techniques. Traditional computer architecture simulations are time-consuming, making it challenging to explore different design choices efficiently. Our proposed model utilizes a combination of application features and micro-architectural features to predict the performance of an application. These features are derived from simulations of a small portion of the application. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by building and evaluating a machine learning model that offers significant speedup in architectural exploration. This model demonstrates the ability to predict IPC values for the testing data with a root mean square error of less than 0.1.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant progress in various downstream tasks, inspiring the development of Speech Understanding Language Models (SULMs) to enable comprehensive speech-based interactions. However, most advanced SULMs are developed by the industry, leveraging large-scale datasets and computational resources that are not readily available to the academic community. Moreover, the lack of transparency in training details creates additional barriers to further innovation. In this study, we present OSUM, an Open Speech Understanding Model designed to explore the potential of training SLUMs under constrained academic resources. The OSUM model combines a Whisper encoder with a Qwen2 LLM and supports a wide range of speech tasks, including speech recognition (ASR), speech recognition with timestamps (SRWT), vocal event detection (VED), speech emotion recognition (SER), speaking style recognition (SSR), speaker gender classification (SGC), speaker age prediction (SAP), and speech-to-text chat (STTC). By employing an ASR+X training strategy, OSUM achieves efficient and stable multi-task training by simultaneously optimizing ASR alongside target tasks. Beyond delivering strong performance, OSUM emphasizes transparency by providing openly available data preparation and training methodologies, offering valuable insights and practical guidance for the academic community. By doing so, we aim to accelerate research and innovation in advanced SULM technologies.

Vision-language models (VLMs), which process image and text inputs, are increasingly integrated into chat assistants and other consumer AI applications. Without proper safeguards, however, VLMs may give harmful advice (e.g. how to self-harm) or encourage unsafe behaviours (e.g. to consume drugs). Despite these clear hazards, little work so far has evaluated VLM safety and the novel risks created by multimodal inputs. To address this gap, we introduce MSTS, a Multimodal Safety Test Suite for VLMs. MSTS comprises 400 test prompts across 40 fine-grained hazard categories. Each test prompt consists of a text and an image that only in combination reveal their full unsafe meaning. With MSTS, we find clear safety issues in several open VLMs. We also find some VLMs to be safe by accident, meaning that they are safe because they fail to understand even simple test prompts. We translate MSTS into ten languages, showing non-English prompts to increase the rate of unsafe model responses. We also show models to be safer when tested with text only rather than multimodal prompts. Finally, we explore the automation of VLM safety assessments, finding even the best safety classifiers to be lacking.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

MIDOG 2025 Track 1 requires mitosis detection in whole-slideimages (WSIs) containing non-tumor, inflamed, and necrotic re-gions. Due to the complicated and heterogeneous context, aswell as possible artifacts, there are often false positives and falsenegatives, thus degrading the detection F1-score. To addressthis problem, we propose a two-stage framework. Firstly, an im-proved YOLO11x, integrated with EMA attention and LSConv,is employed to generate mitosis candidates. We use a low confi-dence threshold to generate as many proposals as possible, en-suring the detection recall. Then, a ConvNeXt-Tiny classifieris employed to filter out the false positives, ensuring the detec-tion precision. Consequently, the proposed two-stage frame-work can generate a high detection F1-score. Evaluated on afused dataset comprising MIDOG++, MITOS_WSI_CCMCT,and MITOS_WSI_CMC, our framework achieves an F1-scoreof 0.882, which is 0.035 higher than the single-stage YOLO11xbaseline. This performance gain is produced by a significantprecision improvement, from 0.762 to 0.839, and a comparablerecall. On the MIDOG 2025 Track 1 preliminary test set, thealgorithm scores an F1 score of 0.7587. The code is available athttps://github.com/xxiao0304/MIDOG-2025-Track-1-of-SZTU.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

We present detailed morphology measurements for 8.67 million galaxies in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DECaLS, MzLS, and BASS, plus DES). These are automated measurements made by deep learning models trained on Galaxy Zoo volunteer votes. Our models typically predict the fraction of volunteers selecting each answer to within 5-10\% for every answer to every GZ question. The models are trained on newly-collected votes for DESI-LS DR8 images as well as historical votes from GZ DECaLS. We also release the newly-collected votes. Extending our morphology measurements outside of the previously-released DECaLS/SDSS intersection increases our sky coverage by a factor of 4 (5,000 to 19,000 deg^2) and allows for full overlap with complementary surveys including ALFALFA and MaNGA.

This report presents an overview of the 7th Large-scale Video Object Segmentation (LSVOS) Challenge held in conjunction with ICCV 2025. Besides the two traditional tracks of LSVOS that jointly target robustness in realistic video scenarios: Classic VOS (VOS), and Referring VOS (RVOS), the 2025 edition features a newly introduced track, Complex VOS (MOSEv2). Building upon prior insights, MOSEv2 substantially increases difficulty, introducing more challenging but realistic scenarios including denser small objects, frequent disappear/reappear events, severe occlusions, adverse weather and lighting, etc., pushing long-term consistency and generalization beyond curated benchmarks. The challenge retains standard {J}, F, and {J&F} metrics for VOS and RVOS, while MOSEv2 adopts {J&F} as the primary ranking metric to better evaluate objects across scales and disappearance cases. We summarize datasets and protocols, highlight top-performing solutions, and distill emerging trends, such as the growing role of LLM/MLLM components and memory-aware propagation, aiming to chart future directions for resilient, language-aware video segmentation in the wild.

Radiology plays an integral role in modern medicine, yet rising imaging volumes have far outpaced workforce growth. Foundation models offer a path toward assisting with the full spectrum of radiology tasks, but existing medical models remain limited: they process volumetric CT and MRI as low-fidelity 2D slices, discard critical grayscale contrast information, and lack evaluation frameworks that reflect real clinical practice. We introduce Pillar-0, a radiology foundation model pretrained on 42,990 abdomen-pelvis CTs, 86,411 chest CTs, 14,348 head CTs, and 11,543 breast MRIs from a large academic center, together with RATE, a scalable framework that extracts structured labels for 366 radiologic findings with near-perfect accuracy using LLMs. Across internal test sets of 14,230 abdomen-pelvis CTs, 10,646 chest CTs, 4,906 head CTs, and 1,585 breast MRIs, Pillar-0 establishes a new performance frontier, achieving mean AUROCs of 86.4, 88.0, 90.1, and 82.9, outperforming MedGemma (Google), MedImageInsight (Microsoft), Lingshu (Alibaba), and Merlin (Stanford) by 7.8-15.8 AUROC points and ranking best in 87.2\% (319/366) tasks. Pillar-0 similarly outperforms all baselines in an external validation on the Stanford Abdominal CT dataset, including Merlin (82.2 vs 80.6 AUROC). Pillar-0 extends to tasks beyond its pretraining, such as long-horizon lung cancer risk prediction, where it improves upon the state-of-the-art Sybil by 3.0 C-index points on NLST, and generalizes with gains of 5.9 (MGH) and 1.9 (CGMH). In brain hemorrhage detection, Pillar-0 obtained a >95 AUROC when using only 1/20th of the data of the next most sample efficient baseline. Pillar-0 and RATE together provide an open, clinically rigorous foundation for building high-performance radiology systems, enabling applications that were previously infeasible due to computational, data, and evaluation constraints.

Open-weights reasoning language models generate long chains-of-thought (CoTs) before producing a final response, which improves performance but introduces additional alignment risks, with harmful content often appearing in both the CoTs and the final outputs. In this work, we investigate if we can use CoTs to predict final response misalignment. We evaluate a range of monitoring approaches, including humans, highly-capable large language models, and text classifiers, using either CoT text or activations. First, we find that a simple linear probe trained on CoT activations can significantly outperform all text-based methods in predicting whether a final response will be safe or unsafe. CoT texts are often unfaithful and can mislead humans and classifiers, while model latents (i.e., CoT activations) offer a more reliable predictive signal. Second, the probe makes accurate predictions before reasoning completes, achieving strong performance even when applied to early CoT segments. These findings generalize across model sizes, families, and safety benchmarks, suggesting that lightweight probes could enable real-time safety monitoring and early intervention during generation.

The field of computer vision applied to videos of minimally invasive surgery is ever-growing. Workflow recognition pertains to the automated recognition of various aspects of a surgery: including which surgical steps are performed; and which surgical instruments are used. This information can later be used to assist clinicians when learning the surgery; during live surgery; and when writing operation notes. The Pituitary Vision (PitVis) 2023 Challenge tasks the community to step and instrument recognition in videos of endoscopic pituitary surgery. This is a unique task when compared to other minimally invasive surgeries due to the smaller working space, which limits and distorts vision; and higher frequency of instrument and step switching, which requires more precise model predictions. Participants were provided with 25-videos, with results presented at the MICCAI-2023 conference as part of the Endoscopic Vision 2023 Challenge in Vancouver, Canada, on 08-Oct-2023. There were 18-submissions from 9-teams across 6-countries, using a variety of deep learning models. A commonality between the top performing models was incorporating spatio-temporal and multi-task methods, with greater than 50% and 10% macro-F1-score improvement over purely spacial single-task models in step and instrument recognition respectively. The PitVis-2023 Challenge therefore demonstrates state-of-the-art computer vision models in minimally invasive surgery are transferable to a new dataset, with surgery specific techniques used to enhance performance, progressing the field further. Benchmark results are provided in the paper, and the dataset is publicly available at: https://doi.org/10.5522/04/26531686.